messed up AK NL50

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messed up AK NL50

BN: $70.21
SB: $52.27
BB: $52.44
UTG: $109.37 (Hero)
HJ: $186.31
CO: $51.91
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A K
Hero raises to $1.75, HJ folds, CO calls $1.75, BN folds, SB calls $1.50, BB raises to $6, Hero calls $4.25, CO calls $4.25, SB folds
I feel really lost her...BB is unknown and i expect him to be usually strong 3betting UTG multiway...
I hate my cal i guess becauz its really prising in the rest of the table....so better to 4b/f?
Flop ($20.25) 3 J 4 (3 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks
CO is sort of nitreg playing 21/15/ 7% 3b over 500 hands woho could be kind of wide here
Turn ($20.25) 3 J 4 J (3 Players)
BB bets $3, Hero calls $3, CO calls $3
this betsizing really sucks and i dont have a clue how to proceed properly...
I dont expect CO to raise here ever so maybe just flatting isnt too bad?
River ($29.25) 3 J 4 J 6 (3 Players)
BB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50
meh...what the heck now? enough SDV even with CO behind? I guess bluffraising would be the worst option and fold is out of the question

17 Comments

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wuwei 11 years, 8 months ago

I think your call preflop is fine. You're getting decent odds to flop top pair in a huge pot.

I don't like 4bet/folding because (i) you fold out all dominated hands (ii) you fold a lot of equity vs hands villain could shove, iike KK, QQ, AK.

4bet/calling is close, but probably ok.

TheLove_Below 11 years, 8 months ago

Advocating,preflop call is pretty bad. Playing AK OOP, and in multiway pot?? By 4-betting, you isolate the BB, while gaining positional advantage/ also the dead money you gain from Co/SB folding. Theoretically speaking, AK(when hitting TPTK hand range), plays better in low SPR situations.

wuwei 11 years, 8 months ago

What do you mean? You think calling is -ev? Or just worse than 4betting?

Two comments:

-If BB shoves, I think we have at best a BE call. In my experience, he is just never shoving JJ or AQs and even QQ/AK are not sure. So, our profit exclusively comes from picking up dead money and from cases where BB calls our 4bet. This has to exceed possible losses due to calling a shove and the profit we would make by calling.

-Positional advantage arguably vanishes when we have a very low SPR and very defined ranges. Also, this would only be relevant when BB calls.

I'am just not convinced that 4bet/calling is (much) better than calling. This, of course, depends on sizing. 

I think, with certain villains 4bet/calling is -ev, while calling is almost certainly +ev. Without further reads I think, as I wrote above, that both options are ok. 

TheLove_Below 11 years, 8 months ago

you'r having a pretty static analysis on this situation. Firstly your assuming villain has a nutted hand range, which is inherently wrong for the analysis. And secondly, why are we viewing the hand in terms of 4-bet/calling jam.

VIllain has the options of 1) 3-bet/call

                                        2)3-bet/5-bet Jam

                                       3) 3-bet/fold. With your analysis, your exclusively analyzing the worse possible scenario, with our AK hand range, VS villains 3-bet/5-bet Strategy, while neglecting villains other strategies in a vacuum, which is inherently a flaw. If you weigh out villains all 3-options, AK 4-bet maximizes our EV the most.

wuwei 11 years, 8 months ago

Hm,...

I didn't assume villain has a nutted range for squeezing, but I assume his 5bet range is nutted. (disagree?)

I mentioned the 3bet/call case above. It's probably good when that happens. However, if we 4bet to 2x or  more, I expect few 3bet/calls. 4betting smaller is an option, but then we probably can't call a shove.

Ok, your claim is "If you weigh out villains all 3-options, AK 4-bet maximizes our EV the most."

Maybe it's true?


TheLove_Below 11 years, 8 months ago

As mentioned by you "I didn't assume villain has a nutted range for squeezing". This essentially is the reasoning i justify for 4-betting preflop. 

How is AK faring VS random squeezing hand range.

 25,170,868,800  games     0.002 secs    12,585,434,400,000  games/secBoard: Dead:   equity win tie      pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 65.320%    64.47% 00.85%   16227502536 214127034.00   { AKo }

Hand 1: 34.680%    33.83% 00.85%    8515112196 214127034.00   { random }

Basically my point stands that even if Villain is bluffing, our AKo isnt faring well Equity wise, if we called on flop, since we're still drawing to 3(A)+3(K). 

Compare that equity with a hand like QQ, where im more prone to flatting preflop, due to its inherent value

12,585,434,400  games     0.001 secs    12,585,434,400,000  games/secBoard: Dead:   equity win tie      pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 79.925%    79.63% 00.29%   10022031864 36897228.00   { QQ }

Hand 1: 20.075%    19.78% 00.29%    2489608080 36897228.00   { random }


Chael Sonnen 11 years, 8 months ago

BBs range is not stronger when he 3-bets after a flat by the CO and SB. There's possibly dead money in the pot, and he's more likely to pick up than when he's playing against UTG only.

He also knows that you probably know he squeezes wider with CO and SB in the middle, so you'd 4-bet wider as well. It's another reason why you can't fold here.

Just 4-bet and NOT fold. When you do call the shove, you're in a pretty marginal situation, but there's little you can do. Pot odds and the possible light 4-bet.

I'd flat here if:
-CO and/or SB are huge fishes, whom you want to keep in the pot. I'd probably only flat 3-way, not 4-way.
-BB is super, super tight
- If Villains is deep stacked. I'd probably flat ifhe has over 125BB.

As played:
Checking back is fine. You have decent showdown value, and BB might try to check-shove here if you guys stab too often.
I'm not qualified to answer this but, is it a good idea to bet about 1/3 pot with your entire range here, from top set to nothing, as the BB? I saw Dintyo do that in one of his Cardrunners videos.
Check-calling really looks like TT or JJ. if you're BB.

On the turn, I don't think you can fold. BB has shown a ton of weakness, you have okay showdown value, and 6 outs to make top pair.
Raising doesn't really represent muxh, though BB doesn't seem good enough to know that.
I'd be more worried about the CO. Unlikely he has A high because of the pre-flop call and your blockers, so he probably has some kind of pair, which beats you.

On the river, I guess you can't fold. I have no idea what you beat other than AQ, and an A high CO flat, but can you really fold?
Even though you don't rep a lot, I think raising is better.
You lose vs the CO almost every time. BB doesn't have Jx, but you or the CO might. Raise it to 8 dollar and rep TT or Jx, I guess.


wuwei 11 years, 8 months ago
"He also knows that you probably know he squeezes wider with CO and SB in
the middle, so you'd 4-bet wider as well."

That's quite an assumption :)
RaoulFlush 11 years, 8 months ago

still not sure if i like the riverraise tbh...BB line looks very fishy  given line and firts thing most of us should´ve learned (cost me hundreds, maybe thousands of dollars) is to not bluff the fish...I expect to get called by any pair quite often...and obv we can ez call OTR given price of 1/60 pot....we have to be good so rarely that its never a mistake i guess

Chael Sonnen 11 years, 8 months ago

When does he ever bet a pair like this, if he's planning on calling a raise?
Wuwei, it's not a difficult concept at all. It's just an annoying sentence to read.

wuwei 11 years, 8 months ago
I don't find the concept difficult. I just wanted to point out that these are layered assumptions.

We assume that (1) BB squeezes light (2) he knows that we assume this (3) he assumes we adjust accordingly (4) he readjusts accordingly.

If (1) doesn't hold true, we make a mistake. If (1) is true, but (2) isn't, we make a mistake. If (1) and (2) are true, but (3) isn't, ...
Chael Sonnen 11 years, 8 months ago

No, we don't assume that he's squeezing light. It is generally more likely than you'll be squeezed light with two callers in the middle.
We don't assume he knows any of this, but a lot of players do. So against an unknown player we'd want to get it in, because AK is probably a call anyway. And we have added incentive because he likely knows a little about squeezing.


RaoulFlush 11 years, 8 months ago

"It is generally more likely than you'll be squeezed light with two callers in the middle."

Is this really the case? I tend to (and see other ppl do as well) play way more straight forward oop in multiway pots and esp. squeeze much less than 3way, cauz FE seems to become lower drastically while pot can expload ez when 2 or even more players call...In that case we end up playing a marginal range with low SPR multiway oop which is horrible

whysoeasy 11 years, 8 months ago

You should do it sometime then ( if there isn't a fish in the middle). First you will look strong and second your squeeze gonna be big and others players will have to play really straight forward since they will not be able to 4bet bluff you. ( But I would squeeze around 7/7.5 here if I was BB)

TheLove_Below 11 years, 8 months ago

why do you even want to raise villains river bet. Theoretically speaking, your calling $.5 to win $29.25, and alot of info on villains leaks. Villain is probably giving you the best odds in the whole world to pick up on his bet-sizing tells/ and his betting frequencies. 

**) I don't see how a $3 bet into a pot of $20.25, isn't going to be exploitable in the long run. 

Call and learn what hand range villain is betting with, and construct a exploitable strategy VS his monkey-bet sizings in the future

Chael Sonnen 11 years, 8 months ago

The BB will call wider, because of pot odds and implied odds.
He will squeeze wider for value. If he had JJ here vs an UTG open, he might call because he's up against a strong range. Now he'd be up against one strong range, and two weak ones. 3-betting becomes the better option.
And because he knows the guys in the middle almost never have a monster, he's more likely to sqeeuze, rather than 3-betting light versus just the UTG open.



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