Mathematics and FE

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Mathematics and FE

Hi !

I was wondering about some basics maths in MW pots :-P

Considering we are on the flop in a 3way pot. Hero against 2 villains player-A and player-B.

I want to know how much FE I have since I know I have 20% FE against A, and 30% FE against B.

Is this calculation right :

0.2 * 0.3 = 0.06 ---> 6% FE on the flop ?

So close to none FE..

10 Comments

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sauloCosta10 8 years, 7 months ago

Thats high school math. You have two events A and B, A being "player A folds" and B being "player B folds". The probability of both events occuring - P(A and B) - will be calculated differently if the events are independent or dependent. Dependent events happen when the outcome of one influences the outcome of the other. In this specific case, I think it makes more sense to consider these two events dependent. First of all, because of blockers (if player A calls he probably has connected with the board, blocking hands player B might call as well) and because of relative hand strenght (a hand might be too weak to call once there has been a bet and call, but might be called facing only a bet and no callers). The probability of A and B happening, when A and B are dependent events, is calculated as follows: P (A and B) = P(A) * P (B given A). Calculating P(B given A) is probably not straight forward

Vincent Videau 8 years, 7 months ago

Thats high school math.

I didn't go to highscool.

You have two events A and B, A being "player A folds" and B being "player B folds". The probability of both events occuring - P(A and B) - will be calculated differently if the events are independent or dependent. Dependent events happen when the outcome of one influences the outcome of the other. In this specific case, I think it makes more sense to consider these two events dependent. First of all, because of blockers (if player A calls he probably has connected with the board, blocking hands player B might call as well) and because of relative hand strenght (a hand might be too weak to call once there has been a bet and call, but might be called facing only a bet and no callers). The probability of A and B happening, when A and B are dependent events, is calculated as follows: P (A and B) = P(A) * P (B given A). Calculating P(B given A) is probably not straight forward

Interesting,

So if we consider P(A) = 20% and P(B given A) = 30% we can affirm that P(A) * P(B given A) = 0.2 * 0.3 = 6% ?

sauloCosta10 8 years, 7 months ago

I didn't go to highscool.

Sorry, I didnt mean to be rude

So if we consider P(A) = 20% and P(B given A) = 30% we can affirm that P(A) * P(B given A) = 0.2 * 0.3 = 6% ?

Yes.

Vincent Videau 8 years, 7 months ago

Sorry, I didnt mean to be rude

NP ;-)

I was working on a spot, and want to know if we can profitably XR bluff on a multiway flop with a monster draw and few FE on both villains. Given to this calcultation I think I got my answer ;-)

Thanks for your fast reply ;-)

greedisgood 8 years, 7 months ago

I don't know about the schooling systems in your countries but I think multiplications and probabilities were in 5th grade primary school :D

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