Marginal turn call vs weakish reg in 3BP
Posted by luckykiwi
Posted by
luckykiwi
posted in
Low Stakes
Marginal turn call vs weakish reg in 3BP
CO: 109.50
BN: 123.87 (Hero)
SB: 100
BB: 100
HJ: 100
BN: 123.87 (Hero)
SB: 100
BB: 100
HJ: 100
Preflop
(1.50)
(5 Players)
Hero was dealt
7
A
HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to 2, SB folds, BB raises to 7, Hero calls 5
HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to 2, SB folds, BB raises to 7, Hero calls 5
V is a 21/16/6 reg that I think just leveled up from NL50, 3bet BB vs BTN 7%, cbet in 3BP 58 56 100, i dont have a big sample on him though, only 5k hands.
Flop
(15.50)
2
7
2
(2 Players)
BB bets 7.50,
Hero calls 7.50
Turn
(30.50)
2
7
2
4
(2 Players)
BB bets 18,
Hero calls 18
just fold on this turn?
River
(66.50)
2
7
2
4
T
(2 Players)
BB bets 67.50, and is all in,
Hero folds
Final Pot
BB
wins 62.50
Loading 8 Comments...
I would fold pf.
Your stats suggest that once he bets the turn, he's very likely to follow through on the river and its hard for him to be bluffing the turn (the only draw is bd clubs). His 7% pf range can be all for value, so a reasonable turn range for villain is 39 combos of 88-AA + 7 combos of broadway clubs. So i'm folding the turn too.
agree about preflop... 7% is decently strong range so you wont realize all your equity.. i would call pre if i knew how to exploit villain postflop to be able to steal a pot from him decent amount of the time.. vs top7% i would call AQo+ ATs+ KQs+ 99+ i think...
postflop u can take a look into his XFolding stats as 3bettor. but all in all calling super dry board vs tight range knowing that he will often fire 3rd shouldnt be good, he has only few semi bluffs here.. by 21/16/6 we can assume that he is pretty honest and str8 forward guy
You should only call the turn, if you`re gonna call the river, or have a note on the villain that he close to never triple barrels with air.Otherwise you`re lighting money on fire by taking these lines.
Hustla, I have to disagree on this point. Every street is different, with various RIver cards/ thats going to either improve our overall hand range or VIllains Perceived range. You shouldnt have this type of mindset for how you would play the hand out, given everything is liable to change on Various RIver cards.
OTT : I would probably fold. given 88+ is all beating you, and we're uncertain whether VIllain is going to double-barrel Bluff you OTT, given the turn card is basically a blank for VIllains overall hand range.
@TL_B - I thought it was super obvious i`m talking about blank rivers like the T is.
Hustla, i agree that im calling a high % of times, when river is blank(hand like TX).
But if VIllain is Jamming Pot OTR, then i'll have to reconsider the calling Option.
Whats dictating the river call:
1) Pot Odds 2) Villains Perceived range 3)River card
4) Villains Perceived image.
For this spot, VIllain should have all TT+ combos that he's value jamming river, thus making this easy fold.
Sorry for being nit-picky Hustla :)
When i face a race on the button and i have this kind of marginal hands (A7/K9/QT/etc), i try to call if ill be comfortable calling 3 streets on Ahigh boards, or 7xx boards. If i wont i prefer just 4bet pre or fold, or even call if we are deep enough. And i don´t see how you can be comfortable calling 3 streets against a 7% range with A7s. Only way would be if he has a very polarize composition of his 3bet range, something so ridicoulous like AK/QQ+, and then all A2-A5 bluffs.
TL_B-You completely misunderstood what i was saying.
I`m saying that in a vacuum calling the turn, but folding the river in these spots is burning money.
I`m not saying he SHOULD call the river here, BUT fold the turn.
Of course the ranges have not changed otr and folding is correct, but the ranges are also the same on the turn, as it`s a complete brick.
You`re a selective reader man ;).
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