Make a pretty big exploitative fold? HU 50 NL
Posted by FRABB
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FRABB
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Low Stakes
Make a pretty big exploitative fold? HU 50 NL
100bb stacks vs pretty OK reg. I minraise A9o and he 3 bets to 3x and I call. Flop comes 899 with 2 spades. He cbets 1/2 pot I raise 2.5x and he clicks it back. And I wanted to fold really bad because I've never seen someone do this without da nuts. But I convinced myself that he could do this with T9-K9 and shoved. Thoughts?
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Dude
If you are folding here, you have 3 combos of 88 and 1 combo of quads you continue with.
Does this not sound ridiculous?
You practically have the nuts HU.
I'm obviously calling if he shoves.
Well, the nuts on that board is 99 and he can't have it, so if you haven't seen someone do it without the nuts before, you're seeing it now. Does that change your thinking?
Eh what? I'm referring to him only having a full house or bluff here.
Yeah, I know, but a boat isn't the nuts on that board, is all I'm saying. YOU know that no one can have quads, but you don't know that HE knows that. In fact, it's unlikely that he does know that. And I don't really think he's that polarized. It's a very draw heavy board, so he could easily be protecting an overpair or aggressively semi-bluffing himself.
Yeah I know what you're saying. But I've never seen someone click back a draw och an overpair here but in real time I thought like you're saying to convince myself to go with it. Always spew or full house here tbh.
This flop with the exception of 999 or A99 is about as good as flop as you're likely going to see with A9. If he's clicking back with AK of spades you have 71% equity vs AK spades and 56% vs 76 spades and j10 spades. So against a spade flush draw, straight and straight flush draw, worse case scenario you're getting it in with 56% equity.
The worst hand for you would be 89, which would mean villain blocks the other 9 and you'd have to catch A or 8 on the run out. Leaving you with about ~13% equity to win and 10% equity in a split.
If you're up against 88 you still have 23% equity in the hand. Due to the 9 still being in the deck somewhere.
You're crushing hands like AA with 91% equity. KK with 87% equity.
There are so few combos of hands that have you in trouble in this situation. I'm not sure villain is going to 3bet pre with 89 clubs or something like that. I'd lean more towards JJ+ or AK spades, which you have some great equity against. I think he very likely was on a nut flush draw or straight flush draw.
I think if you fold to a flop like this, you likely shouldn't be calling his 3bet with this hand. The 9's are much safer than an Ace showing up on the flop for your hand. I have no problem getting it in on a flop like this with a hand like yours in a heads up match. It would take a very strong read for me to fold a hand like this to villain.
The only way I'd fold here is if it was a live game, and the opponent accidently flipped over his cards, and I saw 88 or 89.
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