Loose call on the river with A10 on A6853 board to a big sizing?
Posted by berdy
Posted by
berdy
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Mid Stakes
Loose call on the river with A10 on A6853 board to a big sizing?
Hi everyone, is my first post here on RIO. I was playing 10/20 Big Blind Ante 20 game live at bellagio.
I open Ah10c $60 on the HJ position. CO reg call. BB fish call.
Flop As 6c 8h. BB x. I bet $60 into $210. CO call. BB fold.
Turn 5d. I x. Co bet $250 into $330. I call. I usually x call my weaker Ax here on the turn.
River 3c. I x. He bet $1000 into $830. I called.
My strategy was to x call lot of my weaker Ax on the turn and the river.
I have discussed this hand with many of my peers and they seems to agree that river is a clear fold.
They said opponent is too stupid to be so greedy here and we should only x/c only with 2 pairs plus.
However i found it difficult to come up on the river with 2 pairs+ that i will x call on turn and river.
Perhaps only 4 combos of A3ss.
I have try running it on PIO and i'm not sure if im doing it correctly.
Solver seems to always call with their Ax on the river to a big bet.
However when i try to node lock CO range to pretty tight on the turn, ie like sets,two pairs and only bluff seems to be like 67ss, the solver fold basically all Ax on the river to a large bet.
My peers ask me to list out his bluff that will OB bluff on the river, seems to be only hands like 67ss and 78ss.
So it seems like there is too much value hands compare to bluff and thus the fold.
However solver always recommend a call with Ax on the river.
I will greatly appreciate some feedback and comments.
Thanks.
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ATTENTION: Wise ass text following - "What has happened to good old odds calculation? Solvers seem to really flatten the thinking process ... how does one use a solver, take the effort to nodelock - only to see that TP is not a good call vs. 2p+?"
OK, that ahead - I had to get rid of it. :D
Now seriously. It is very obvious - or at least it should be - that you have no good call vs. a valueheavy range. That said, we got to ask if our opponent would be bluffing often enough - and if TPMK beats his bluffs. Second can very certainly be answered positively. So, do we expect Villain to got enough bluffs?
At least I don't know - you did not give any information, other than that he seems to be a "reg" and your friends say "he's too stupid" to do that. Where do they take that information? So, if they're right, we are the wrong to ask - because we don't have that information.
Against a complete unknown, whom we expect to be capable of bluffing in a balanced way (or being equally likely to over- or underbluff), this seems as a clear call, as you rarely get there with better bluff catchers.
If you expect that the "pool" will be balanced at best, but tends to rather be too valueheavy, than it's a (clear) fold on the river.
Now put these puzzle pieces together. ;-)
Alright thanks for your input:)
I have not much read about him; but he seems to have those 1/3 sizing and ob sizing; so I presume he know his stuff.
My peers say he is too stupid to be so greedy and bet so big on the river because clearly that is a value bet. There is too little bluff combos.
It lean more to value than bluff.
I got what you mean; we just have to evaluate ourself if villain is competent enough to bluff here on the river.
Is a 9 handed live game; usually players tend to play much tighter and usually give up river. How true is that?
I’m used to playing online 6max or those Chinese app. Seems like now I’m struggling in 9 handed live game.
What are the stack sizes to start the hand for you and CO? If stacks are deeper seems like CO has too narrow of a range for 76s and 87s to be his only bluffs. Do you think he is folding 75s-T8s preflop? In live poker value will out weigh a lot of bluffs, so I wouldn't use PIO so much. Also it is 3 way action, which PIO does not do, correct?
1) Do you have better hands to call with in your range? (Yes)
2) Is villain value heavy on A68r-5x texture with 75% sizing on the turn? (yes)
A6s (1), A8s (1), 66 (3), 88 (3), A5s (1),
would he bluff with a hand like A7s (2) probably not...
Would he be merged enough to have 65s, 86s, A6s, A5s for his over bet sizing?
I would just fold on the turn given you are only ahead of like 3-4 combos here and likely to face another barrel. I would say he can have some T9s (3) as well with bdfd on the flop in his range. Probably not a good bluff though given it blocks some of your weaker Ax hands.
I also think in terms of check calling the turn because it's your weaker Ax, that you should just be barreling off 1/3 most streets here and folding to aggression in a live setting.
Flop ($210) A68
bet $60
Turn ($330) A685r
bet $110
River ($550) A6853
bet $180
If you get raised it is just an easy fold in general. I think if you input 1/3 sizing on the flop turn and river PIO would prefer it with your hand.
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