Live Turn/River decision in 4b pot vs splashy rec
Posted by Ryan
Posted by
Ryan
posted in
Mid Stakes
Live Turn/River decision in 4b pot vs splashy rec
This is live 1-2. Will start with description on villain
Asian, 40's, doesn't seem to speak English. He sat down and lost a pot. Shortly after, i see him raise QJcc to $15 from EP/MP and blind shove $33 before the flop when called HU. He buys in once again short and busts. He's been very active to this point. After his second bust, he moves to a different seat and goes to the ATM and rebuys for $200
Hero raises KsKd to $10 in MP
New guy to table w $150 calls in CO
Asian guy in SB 3-bets to $30 ($180-190 effective)(villain described)
Hero 4bets to $80
CO folds
SB pauses for a bit, and takes a drink of his beer, and eventually calls(it seems like he considered all options before making a call)
Flop AdJd8s Pot $163
He has around $100-$110 behind and checks
Hero checks
Turn 4s
SB bets $50 and has $50-60 behind
Hero?
Should we be calling turn and calling river. Calling turn and folding river. folding turn?
Based on what ive seen from villain thus far, I imagine villain can have a variety of hands that usually dont end up being in a 4bet calling range, especially facing a 40bb 4b. He obviously is thinking about the game on some other tangent, and thus wouldnt be overly surprised to see things like KQ, QJ, QQ. In hand, I though villain would probably just jam AK. I also blocked AK with my KK, so i didnt really weight him to having it very often.
After analyzing this hand after the fact, i personally think calling turn is probably good. On the river we only need like 15% to make it a break even call. So if he has hands like AQ(12)AJs(3)JJ(3)AK(1) = 17ish , he only needs around 2.5 bluff combos
17*.15 = 2.55
seeing that villain could potentially just have a hand like KQ, QQ, QJ, KJ and stick in the last $50-60 into a $280 river, I guess we just call turn and river? Against alot of players I would maybe just fold turn or river, but against someone who is mis-evaluating hand strength, and taking sporadic actions, do we just call here twice and lose alot, knowing that fundamentally we are probably going to be okay here in the long run?
If we look at it from the perspective that we are essentially calling $100 into a $160 pot(granted he always bets turna nd then follows up on the river, we need to have more like 27%, meaning he needs closer to 4.5 worse hands.
Im tempted to factor in a randomness factor here, based on his splashy nature when short as seen in previous hands, giving him a combo of 99(1), KQ(1), QQ(1.5), QJ(.5), KJ(.5), T9(.5), JT(.5) = 5.5, and there is a possibility of it being much wider. It is really close tho, so maybe from this stance, a turn fold may be warranted. very curious as to what yall think. Its just tough for me to not want to go with it here because I sometimes from these players you'll see very random actions, with hands I havent even laid out here
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Hi ryanspicer
Preflop we just want to be going all in here when our opponent only has $120 or so behind after 3betting to $30, no reason trying to be cheeky with any other bet sizes. As played this is not a very fun situation on the turn. Considering the bet sizing he used, and keeping in mind our perception of this opponent I think we don't have any other options but to call and decide river (again probably just calling). I am expecting a player like this to show up with all kinds of random QQ, TT or 99 to make our call +ev even if we will lose to his AK AQ and JJ most of the time (However, I think we can expect these to have a greatly reduced frequency when our opponent chooses not to go all in)
Cheers.
villain isnt that shallow. He has $150 behind after the $30 3b. (his stack was roughly $180-190 preflop)
Using the smaller preflop sizing rather than jamming is going to lead to villain continuing with way to many hands, by jamming, at these stack depths, I think we force villain into actually player better by folding more. In this situation against a live rec, im going to be completely unbalanced here.
Has he actaully only had $120 behind after the 3b to $30, i still think it is better to use a smaller sizing here and again make him make more mistakes. And again, it would be for completely exploitative reasons. I may make it like $75 or something in that case with AA-QQ, and then straight jam AK
Thanks for the feedback
I think preflop sizing is absolutely fine for explained resaons. Could even go sligthly smaller 70-75 to have a better SPR on flop and maybe induce a shove from villain more often.
Flop: check back is standard of course.
Turn: I would treat his bet as an effectve allin(110) when it comes to figuring out what percentage you have to defend. Now the question becomes how many Ax you gonna 4bet pre in that specific situation and how many of them gonna check back flop. I personally would checkback all non-AK combos on the flop in that specific spot and of course AA.
Now even if you feel like defending KK here is necessary, because you might not have enough Ax, choosing combos that don't block all the draws is probably better….even QcQh seems like a better call to me.
this is clearly the worst combo of KK to defend blocking FD's. That being said, all options seem insanely close to me and all having merit. without much information, i think i kind of prefer a turn call and a river fold(barf), mainly because i think we just have the right price on turn, seeing that he will have bluffs, and sometimes recs will bet a 2nd pair(or worse) on turn or do some weird stab and check the riv. The river would be really close too, but most pairs under Ax would prob favor checking a majority, so the river bet would be close to all Ax i imagine. The turn is very close as well, so i wouldnt mind a turn fold either, but i think based on the potential randomness of this guys range, i intuitively feel we need to at least call the turn facing a 1/3 sizing.
I agree with JACKraceLUKE. It's very important in these situations to understand your preflop ranges and flop check back ranges to not allow yourself to be exploited. Even shitty spazzy players have strategies that are 'exploitative' even though they aren't thinking that way. So you need to know how often you have AA, Ax, JJ. If you have JJ then you probably also have all QQ and (obviously) KK which means you have 12 combos that need some serious protection on this flop. Did you check back enough hands to protect those weaker holdings?
Villain only needs to win about 25% with their turn bet to exploit you so if your range is AA(3), JJ(3), AK(12), KK(6), QQ(6) that's 30 combos and you need to call 22-23ish. That means some KK and/or some QQ can fold here but only if you checked back all your nutty hands on the flop. If your range after the flop is only KK and QQ you have put yourself in a very bad spot because you haven't protected your range.
I actually think since this guy seems to be a huge fish, as described, that a bigger raise preflop is in order. He paused but I don't get the feeling he is folding even to $90-100 preflop. Him pausing also gives me the feeling he does not have a big Ace of any sort. He raised from EP/MP w/ QJcc and blind shoved a short stack. If he had AK-Q here I don't think he would be hesitating at all with his preflop call. Worst case scenario is he called with a really weak Ax here. It feels like a KJs, QJs, or K9s type hand that he is betting. With the line you took I would be calling turn 100% of the time based on the villain and then making a decision after we see the river card. You also block both flush draws having KdKs which makes him holding the draws less likely but based on who this is I'd be calling one street at least.
If SB is being profiled as aggro/trending fishy, then felting KK is the least assumptive (most logical) strategy. Basically calling becomes +EV as soon as villain has shreds of domination / semi-bluffs in his range.
From my perspective, the confusion in the OP analysis is mainly coming from two things:
1) An undistilled profile read
2) An overcomplicated postflop range analysis (going too micro into assumptive ranging and equity math). This seems helpful but it's really not, since it's not all discrete and just leaves you confused at the end of the equation.
If SB is being profiled as aggro/trending fishy, then felting KK is the least assumptive (most logical) strategy. Basically calling becomes +EV as soon as villain has shreds of domination / semi-bluffs in his range. Calling or raising seem difficult to compare but both seem much better than folding.
From my perspective, the confusion in the OP analysis is mainly coming from two things:
1) An undistilled profile read
2) An overcomplicated postflop range analysis (going too micro into assumptive ranging and equity math). The micro analysis seems helpful but it's really not, it's not as discrete as it looks (vague ranging), and as a result it leaves you confused at the end of the equation.
as Krzysztof Slaski said, I just don't like your 4 bet size. New guy＝75bb, Asian guy=90bb, why not jam pre？Live SSNL short stack fish will commit JJ+, AK+ when they have 100BB (I play live SSNL in the UK, my friend said 1/2$ may be more nitty than ours), sometimes even TT 99 because he thinks you got AK. by raise to 2.6x 4bet, u created such bad SPR (less than 1:1).
if u 4bet small with QQ+ and only jam AK is a bad exploitative play as well. pot is=10+10+20+1+2=43, it is not bad to take it down right now if no one calls you: as you will do the same thing with AK or even super light bluff such as KQo sometimes.
if A on the flop (22%), your KK became a bluff catcher, and it freezes the action from QQ JJ. So here I will always jam QQ+ AK, no reason trying to be cheeky with any other bet sizes.
JACKraceLUKE said small pre 4bet. go to 75$ spr=1:1 as well. if u 4bet AK and miss on the flop, what will you do? There is no room for doing anything, u cannot bet 1/3 1/4 pot and then fold.
Live SSNL don't need optimal play at all. If he is good young aggressive reg I will call turn call river. but this guy is a fish, I will click the fold button on the turn. this guy has all the JJ AK AQ AJs, and I do not think he is able to turn all his 99 TT to a bluff, he will always under bluff here.
Sure, if you 4-bet small pre with AK and miss flop it sucks, but here is where being balanced is very important even against weak players. Mostly checking A high flops is mandatory in such spots IMO.
Getting it in preflop seems very appealing and convenient, but don't you think you'll "help" villain making a lot of good folds with AJ,AT, KQ, + some random hands.....however if he flops a pair with thoose hands he will always pay you off.
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