live deep stack 5/10 NL

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live deep stack 5/10 NL

None: Jon Doe: $0

5/10, stacks 3500

villain limps EP, hero makes it $40 BTN AQhh.  BB and villain call.

flop QsTh7h.  check check, hero bets $80, bb calls, villain CR $280.  hero calls.  BB folds.

turn Ad.  villain checks, hero bets $400, villain CR $1100.  hero calls.

river 9c.  villain shoves $2000.

hero????

villain is a very successful and wealthy mid-age white man with family.  He is a poker enthusiast and tries his best to win, although he has glaring leaks.  Even though he's not a complete LAGTARD he can definitely get out of line from time to time.  He can be over aggressive once in a while (both PF and post flop) and likes to open pots and see flops.  He rarely folds to big 3-bets and peels flops pretty light.  He gets a thrill at trying to outplay young pros, but I wouldn't consider him a whale that just dumps cash day after day.  He suffers from chronic case of FPS and tilt.  He can play his draws both passively and aggressively, depending on his mood.

Because of our stack depth of 350bbs, it would be a spew to 3-bet the flop and play for stacks, even with my seeming strong hand.  I ruled that out.  My question is - can you ever find a call on the river?  My problem with calling the river despite the good pot odds - he CR twice on the flop and the turn.  I have the Ah AND the Qh, ruling out the NFD and the pair+FD.  KJh got there.  the only FD he can have are garbage flush draws.  And even though the villain can get out of line, do you see someone taking this line as a bluff??  And he has to be extremely concerned about me calling huge bets and having less than PSB left on the river.   Alternatively, do you just play for stacks on the turn?  It really seemed like he had KJ or 77 here,


13 Comments

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BigFiszh 11 years, 5 months ago

I completely like how you played the hand - for the exact given reasons. And being 350bb deep I wouldn´t give too much on the reads like he´s "capable" of overplaying hands from time to time. Him x/r flop, x/r turn and shove river is just so insanely strong that there´s really nothing you can do besides playing the hand like you did and fold the river.

If I had to guess, I´d say it´s KJhh. :D Closely followed by any other KJ, but I´m pretty sure you won´t (or at least at a very, very low percentage) see anything else but KJ.

pedrolliveira 11 years, 5 months ago

Its seems to me super unlikely that he choose this spot to bluff given how wet the board is. Lets face it, you can easily have two pair here and even a set, any decent player that plays poker for a while realizes that is not a good idea to bluff a guy on the river that has two pair+ a lot of the time. Its only a question what he could have worst than you that you beat, and i dont find anything except Kh9h, and maybe some others Kx flush draws if he likes to limp with this hands and see a flop, not many combinations as you see. So if you decided to fold i think its quite okay. BTW i subscribe the idea of BigFiszh, i think that he has KJ a lot of the time, which makes a lot of sense as played given that it is a loose recreational player that we are talking.

Ki Lee 11 years, 5 months ago

Thanks for the detailed insights, guys.  I talked this hand over with another live pro friend, and he immediately thought that 3-bet shoving the turn was the right play (he knew it before I told him the results).  His reasoning was that the villain would've opened 77 and KJ preflop.  And while I also think that he'd open those hands, I wouldn't be shocked if he decided to limp those hands from time to time.  And the other rather shocking reason he gave was that he thought the double CR was a sign of weakness and very skewed towards draws.  I'm not sure how many players have decent sample sizes on opponent's double CR frequencies to come to a meaningful range analysis, but I certainly can't imagine that this line is a sign of weakness.  But yeah, he right away said that he'd play for stacks on the turn, and as played, call the river.  I really couldn't agree with his reasoning, but my buddy ended up being right; our villain decided to go loco with K4hh.  I sigh folded and he instantly tabled his cards.  Another young live pro under his belt, I guess.  I'm really not sure if I can find a call the next time I'm in a similar spot. 

andhefell 11 years, 5 months ago

Your Ah that blocks the nuts flush + pair, and Qh which blocks pair+ draw is pretty irrelevant. I also disagree with him showing up with rags FD unless it's 89hh. Only the LAGTARDS of LAGTARDS would choose this line with them. With QJhh he'd just bet or call. Same with Axhh. He could bet/call/fold with a low FD but I don't see him C/R when you can call with many higher flush draws and he's in a reverse implied odds situation on the river.

His play is either KJ, or Kxhh. Can't be anything else unless he's slowplaying QQ pre or something.

With this hand I'd just go with a timing tell. If he checked pretty fast, then took quite a while to raise. I'd call. And if he took a long time to check, and raised fast, I'd fold.

The fish's psychology is this:

[Act 1 scene 1]

The dealer gazes with squinted eyes at the TV screen behind while he lazily flips over the turn card. Mr. Fish stares intently at the card in motion trying to get a glimpse of the colour before it is fully turned over. His heartbeat drowns the sound of the broken card shuffler.

Fish: Come flush! Come flush! FUCK! There are so many draws on board on Q 10 7, I don't think I can barrell him off. That stations just gona call me down.

He takes another peak at the K of hearts and 4 of hearts

Fish: I'll just check, it'll probably get checked through and I'll stack him flush over flush on the river.

Ki Lee puts out another 400 chips after some deliberation.

Fish: Wow this guy... What if he's betting with 56hh and I call, then the river comes a blank, and he bets again and I just lose like that!!! I can't call omfg. He's not gona stop betting a blank river, no way. But I can't effing fold. I'll raise and see, I remember reading Super System.

[Act 2 scene 2]

Fish: CMon offsuit Ace or 9!! Yeah!!. What if I bet and he calls and the flush comes? Omfg. I don't want to check it to a guy who will pounce on weakness. The stacks are so deep, I need to get the money in here.

He takes a peak at his cards to confirm he has KJ. A potential mistake which had caused him to pawn his rolex last year.

Fish: There's no way he's folding. I mean look at the board. But if I check, he's likely to bet anything and I can raise.

 

 


 

MrSneeze 11 years, 5 months ago

Live tells are so so decisive on this kind of weird spot. Double XR line is indeed a super strong line, but I have seen bluffs occasionnaly by spazzy people. Hard to say for this particular guy how he likes to spazz (you said he could, how have you seen him spazz before?).

Standard line against most people is to play as you did and snap fold the river. Against this guy, it' not as certain. It looks like a fold, but there might be some things weird:

A) as your friend said, would this guy limp KJ, or would he often raise?

B) is this guy likely to XR KJ into 2 players on the flop when he closes the action and gets good odds to call? depends on your reads on him, definitely... I think many players would not XR KJ all the time here. So you add up to preflop play (he would raise KJ sometimes, at least KJs), and then he doesn't have all the KJ combos in his range.

C) His value range on the flop is 77, QT (does he limp/call QTo?), and maybe Q7s / T7s (he might lead with those). Anyway, his turn XR on the A makes no sense with his value range. So when he double XR you, it shows strengh, but there is already an inconsistency: his flop value range just disappears on the turn, and he's left with KJ / bluff (if he ever bluffs like that).


Overall, it really depends a lot on how this guy plays KJ pre + flop (you should have an idea on that) + how he likes to make moves. I would absolutely search for live tells on the river, and would give them a lot of importance on my decision here, as it is so weird and so close actually (i'm biased since I've known the result).


PS: I don't understand why your friend advocates to shove the turn. I'd much prefer call turn and call river.


Daz 11 years, 3 months ago

KJ suited would open preflop MAYBE not KJo or 77. its not standard to check raise OESD on a FD board in this situation.

surely his limping range would have a lot of Jh9h Jh8h (as we know he had Khh) that would be a strong draw but no show down unimproved.

Your 'friend' clearly has some strong reads in LIVE play - that's why he advocates shoving the turn to get called by worse draws! genius


yoren 11 years, 3 months ago

Don't think you should be ruling out 3-betting flop, especially if he has none of the sets. For 3-bet to be best, I think you'd need to assume that he'd have a range that would peel vs a 3-bet, in which case, you should be getting in a ton of money ahead. In that scenario, you're going to be making a lot of better decisions on later streets b/c of how well your hand plays and how he is likely to play his capped peeling range vs your 3-bet. I wouldn't make it huge, I'd make it a size that puts his gutters/air or Qx in an annoying spot, say 525-550. If you are to 3-bet and get 4-bet by say a range of QT/77/KJhh/J9hh/98hh, you're going to be near flipping (48%) vs his range. Worst case, he has QT/77 which you're 40% against.

So if you feel a decent % of the time he'll react poorly to the 3-bet either by 4-betting air or peeling with capped range containing a lot of hands you dominate, then I think 3-bet becomes clearly best.

I'm not saying 3-bet is optimal in this instance (especially without more info about what you think his limp/calling and c/r-ing ranges are like), it might, it might not be, but ruling it out seems silly when I think there are some realistic conditions where it would be the best play.

It'd be helpful if you included info on his open limping and open raising tendencies in the OP.

DirtyD 11 years, 3 months ago

I'm glad I'm not the only one who gets into spots like this :)

I don't think shoving turn makes much sense either way. If we think he's bluffing, well, we crush bluffs, call and let him hang himself.

LazySummerDays 11 years, 3 months ago

Given your description on the first paragraph, I would be very tempted to call here. Otherwise your turn bet doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

You bet on the smaller side on the turn given the stacks (400 into 765). Given the drawheavy board, you'd probably bet bigger with made hands that need a lot of protection (mainly TT, 77, AA, KJ). I can't really think of any made hands besides AhQh and KhJh that justify a smaller bet on this turn. AhXh should check behind. If villain realizes this (that your valuerange is very capped here...), he might be tempted to pull the trigger.

Agree with that it would be spewy to 3-bet flop and play for stacks with this hand, cause we have showdown potential with a pair. But if we had let's say Ah8h or Ah9h without any immediate straight draws, I might 3-bet this flop because we want to cover flush board runouts as well in 3-bet pots. Otherwise we would be in a tough spot if we 3b flop with only made hands, and flush hits (which is decent % of time) which only hits villain's range and not ours. 350bb+ is probably deep enough to do it if we make it like 675, which is a sizing that villain can't yet really ship it in. (Balance these two nutflush 3-bets with QhQx, I think?)

Also, I think this statement is kind of a silly oxymoron: "Alternatively, do you just play for stacks on the turn?  It really seemed like he had KJ or 77 here"...


FWIW, I think this hand would be very interesting if we had QT.

i) flop play? Anyone 3-bet? I would always call here because a) villain most likely doesn't have a worse value-raising range and we valuetown ourselves against the better part of it (mainly 77) and b) stacks are way deep for 3-betting so it's hard to force villain to make a mistake, since he can peel correctly (A-high/K-high FD) or ship (Jh9h/8h9h) with his draws and c) board is very wet, so if we bloat the pot on the flop and any A, K, 9, 8, 6 or a heart we are not 100% confident getting it in (sort of like the PLO concept with a set on a drawy flop)

ii) turn play? I think this is the most interesting part. We do need a lot of protection, so my first instinct would be to bet big (650 or so, which I would do with KJ aswell) and check back all rivers besides Q/T. Betting bigger discourages villain from check-raising air (if we cover bigger betsize with nuts aswell). However, it would be supergross to get check-raised here w/ QT. My question here is should we check back certain % of our QT? Which ones? Would the Qh make any difference in making that adjustment, in a sense that it's little less likely for flush to hit when we check back Qh?

Brian Rast 11 years, 3 months ago

I like 3betting the flop ... you quickly dismiss it ... but why??  i think this is the best thing written about the hand so fa:r "you're going to be making a lot of better decisions on later streets b/c of how well your hand plays and how he is likely to play his capped peeling range vs your 3-bet. I wouldn't make it huge, I'd make it a size that puts his gutters/air or Qx in an annoying spot, say 525-550"
boom - not to mention if players see you are capable of going "crazy" (i don't think it is) in this spot with flush draws, just wait till you stack them with your sets for 400bb.  

yoren 11 years, 3 months ago
I appreciate that. Sometimes you come up with a thought process that makes sense to you, but has flaws you don't see. And when few agree with you, sometimes you wonder.


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