Live $5/$10: Time for a Sick Fold?
Posted by DegreesOfFreedom
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DegreesOfFreedom
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Live $5/$10: Time for a Sick Fold?
$1000 eff. Nitty recreational player in BB. MP1 opens to $40, I call in CO with KhJd, BB calls.
Flop: KcQhJc Pot 125 Checks to me, I bet $80, BB CRs to $320, MP1 folds
Let's assume that BB is nitty and never raises draws and never raises anything less than 2-pair here. So then we beat QJ and lose to KQ/JJ/KK/QQ/AT. Provided our assumptions are correct can we just fold?
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I play much lower, 1/2 and 2/5....if BB is recreational does it necessarily follow that he is not CRing all of his value hands to protect and won't have any draws? I'm not sure but 3ways the CR looks really strong and could be something like ATo or 9T afraid of a flush draw. Maybe the BB could call with KK,QQ,JJ pre trying to be sneaky and not protecting their stack. Anyways I'm not really sure I just wanted to start the discussion....
Why are we betting that board?
The BB calling range smashes that flop, the MP range is linear, and our range doesn't necessarily connect. When we do bet, we don't get called by much less and we get x/r by better hands. If our read on the BB is correct then we probably have to give up, but we also shouldn't be betting. I like checking behind and trying to get to a cheap showdown.
Now if he is some super-tight nit and gives up non-nut hands (like either Vegas bum hunter who doesn't have a read on you or a weak, broke, recreational player), we can make a case for peeling off a card to see how he reacts. We're going to find ourselves in some tricky spots, though, with only about a pot-sized bet left.
What is he repping? A10, right? Is he so weak that he doesn't 3bet KK, QQ and JJ? We block two of those combos. Depending on the dynamics, we can maybe defend w/ a call then rep flushes and improve to full houses. I'm having a hard time selling myself on this line, but against a certain player it might be ok.
We can get called by AK, KT, K9, flush and str8 draws. Also the board is very wet so our hand could use protection.
So b/f is the obvious play. I don't bet those boards in that spot. Maybe I'm missing value.
I'm not sure the mentality of call to confirm that he has it on the turn is profitable? plus 4 outs isn't a strong draw and the BB has destroyed your odds for that by CRing.
It seems like we might have 75.598% against a recreational range, but when we get CRed it looks like a nutted range, some more courageous players will CR multiway but I don't know the dynamics of this game
Assuming your assumptions, we have to fold.
We can maybe just challenge it : are you sure no FD+SD are in his range?
No we cannot fold KQ or JJ
Agains his range we have 27% with KJ, 43% with KQ and 50% with JJ.
I would call and see a turn.
So why would we want to put more money in as 43% dog?
what is the BB's CR range and frequency? have you seen him show any bluff, air, draw hands with CR's multiway?
I think I might fold KQ?
Time for a easy fold , and bet the flop is pretty standard.
I would call only sets, and repop straights.
I don't think i'm leading any of my FD here.
If we have JJ, the problem is that there's 9 combos of KQ and 32 combos of AT/T9. There's also 3 combos of QQ. So the case can be made for folding JJ.
fold pre
What's your calling range pre in this spot?
Found the recreational nit
Fold
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