Live $5/$10: Getting Tricky with AA
Posted by DegreesOfFreedom
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DegreesOfFreedom
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High Stakes
Live $5/$10: Getting Tricky with AA
$1600 eff. My image TAG grinder. V is same. There is a $20 straddle UTG and two loose-passive donks call, I make it $90 with AhAc in MP2. V 3-bets to $300 in CO. Folds to me. I don't think V is capable of 3-betting light. I think his range is TT+/AQ+ and I think he'll fold a lot of it to a 4-bet so I decide to just flat.
Flop: KsJc6d Pot $675 I check, V bets $250.
Action's on us. What's our plan? What's the best line? Is folding still an option at any point in the hand and if so what circumstances would make us fold?
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well if you think he hasn't a 3bet bluff range I think that adds to the reasons to 4bet. I mean, would he fold QQ/KK when you 4bet? he could possibly even call JJ/AK/AQ don't you think? also we're oop
as played I don't see any reason to put on the agg now since we would be iso ourself especially since we block AK. I would just xc otf
Seems to be a pretty slam dunk x/c, x/c, x/c on any runout other than a K, since AK would then beat us.
If this really is his range: then his range for betting this flop would probably be...
AK - 6 combos
AQ - 8 combos (maybe weight this 50% since he may check)
AA - 1 combo
KK - 3 combos
JJ - 3 combos
Do you think this V would cbet TT/QQ? I'd guess no, but some guys will.
Even if we assume V never bluffs and only bets AK, AA, KK, JJ for 3 streets it's still a pretty slam dunk call down.
$675 in the pot
$1300 effective stacks left
6 combos we beat
6 combos we lose to
1 combo we chop with
EV(call) = (.461975) + (.46-1300) + (.08*337.5)
EV(call) = +$337.5
So in this scenario we're essentially calling down to chop up the pot. Once you add in the fact that V has any bit of a bluff range on any street it becomes even better to call down. It would be a pretty huge mistake to fold at any point, unless we have some live reads.
On a T turn...
If V is cbetting all combos of AQ on the flop, our ev to call down will be -$30. (again this is with the assumption that there are zero bluffs in his range)
If he's only cbetting 50% of his AQ's on the flop then our EV = +$194.5
So definitely just closing my eyes and happily x/c down on every runout where K doesn't come out.
If 4b was better pre, what sizing would you guys suggest?
Super easy 4b to 650-750 and go from there
Overall you think 4b pre is better than flatting? And if so, why?
you didn't ask ME but my reasoning is that we want to be flatting AA when we are kind of sure that V would fold to a 4bet, if we know he always folds to a 4bet and that he 3bet range contains a lot of bluff and weak hands that just can't continue when we 4bet then the best way to extract value would be to just flat preflop and try to trap him postflop AND we 4bet when V is unlikely to fold to a 4bet because his 3betting range doesn't contain that many weak hands he doesn't 3bet bluff that much, the best way to extract value in this situation imo is to keep on the raising and hope we're going against his top 3bet range AK/QQ+
In this scenario you say you don't think V is capable of 3betting light so, what you're saying is that when he 3bets he does it with a strong range, a strong 3bet range is exactly the range we want to go against when we get our aces 3bet so we can 4bet and get call
Thanks, David.
What if his 3b range is only TT+/AQ+ and he folds everything but KK/QQ?
What would be your 4b size?
^ if this is the case then start 4betting alot vs him
4b size should be like 2.2-2.7x as a standard
Not sure what your history is aside from the TAG image, but generally pre flop, I like a min. raise on the 4-bet to induce more action. If villain isn't capable of 3-betting light and you min. raise, he's likely to come over the top. I think it's a better play/more convincing when you're in position, but still, people hardly ever sniff it out.
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