Live $5/$10: Fold Top Two Pair?
Posted by DegreesOfFreedom
Posted by
DegreesOfFreedom
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High Stakes
Live $5/$10: Fold Top Two Pair?
$1400 eff, V covers me. My image is a nitty grinder. V is a very good TAG grinder. I have AhQd in CO. V opens to $40 in MP2, only I call.
Flop: Qs5c6h Pot ~ $95 V bets $50, I call.
Turn: Ac Pot ~ $195 V bets $100, I raise to $400, V calls.
River: 4s Pot ~ $995 V shoves, I have $910 left to call.
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87has you beat now but i doubt he calls the huge raise ott with it. Also keep in mind that raising turn might iso you against ak++
OK, so what do you do OTT and OTR?
Against weaker opponents, I just raise turn for value, hope to Gii, OTR; i would always jam if checked to me, now that he leads, you could find a fold, but I see too many worse twopair here and maybe even some bluffs.
If he knows you are tight/ straight forward, he might just check river with the straight, asssuming you never value raise turn to check back this river, which I assume you wont.
his bluffs might be smthg like Qxcc or 67cc. not sure how many value combos he actually has. seems like a fishy/weird way to play any set to me (might check river w AAA and only 1 combo. why would he play 666 like this instead of 3b turn?). calling an open ender ott w no flush draw is dubious. ranges are obv very narrow. don't think we're gonna tell you much you don't know w/ regards to hands he might be bluffing with or valuebetting. try and pin down how many bluff combos you think he has and how many value combos you think he would play like this and look at ur price. I probably get curious otr, esp w ur image.
tho I did get picked off the other day in a huge pot when I bluffshoved river w a good blocker hand. hated it after cause I thought so many of my value combos would've raised an earlier street.
Might also be possible that he calls the turn with a set and jams the river because he assumes you might check behind some 2pairs that you will call his jam with and that you will jam your straight anyways.
the question for me is what is your range according to V?
You are a nitty grinder so turn you have 55/66/AQ/A5/A6 and sometimes some combo draw.
So when he push river I think he crush you and have a set or a straight.
i think this is a good point and a good reason to fold. he might think we're so strong that he has no fold equity, so he never bluffs. or he could think that he wants to play his straights like this, so he wants to find some bluffs to balance. or he could think that when the straight gets there he can get us to fold some strong hands. the problem is we don't know.
so maybe the answer is to try to call at a freq that makes him indifferent w/ his bluffs. assuming he never plays AQ like this, AQ might be a better bluffcatcher than 666 cause of set removal.
something else to consider is if he opens 100% of 78s pf and if he plays them like this 100%. my guesses would be no and no.
good point!
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