Live $5/$10: Critique my Cold 4-bet Bluff Line
Posted by ecomommy
Posted by
ecomommy
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Mid Stakes
Live $5/$10: Critique my Cold 4-bet Bluff Line
CO ($1000) is a spewy recreational regular with non-poker money opens to $30. SB ($2500) is a semi-pro TAG reg 3bs to $110. Hero BB ($1500) makes it $350 with A♠ J♦
CO... flats (WTF?), SB folds.
9♣ 8♣ 7♥ $810 I shove $650 effective.
Is this good? Am I picking the right hands to balance my premiums with? How's my 4b sizing?
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I tend to use AQs and AJs. For me its more about finding the right spots though. If the TAG reg is 3-betting quite a bit, or is 3-betting a weak player (or someone how opens a lot) then it could be a good spot.
What do you think of the flop action?
yeah you have to jam here given SPR - you have fold equity, two overs and a gut shot if you get called...
I'd say this hand is by far the worst hand you could do this with. And what are your "premiums" on that board - against his perceived range?!
do what? 4b or jam flop?
Damn 987 with a flush draw is like smashola to the range of that cold 4b call. I don't see any reason to spend any more on this hand when that flop hits, your fold equity is so low and you are so dead to a ton of hands. I mean what are you folding out here, JJ? AQo? With a spewy fun player all club draws snap call, some of which are ahead of you already. 1010 prob calls, all sets call, 10J obv, QQ-AA....this is a death shove I think
But why do you make such a big 4bet? You almost commit yourself vs co if he decides to go for it. And 280,- would be an awkward size against the sb. Then the sb cant really 5bet bluff anymore (he would commit more than 33% of his stack). If the sb is the type of player who doesnt fold to this small 4bet size, only 4bet to val (Jj+, AK)'and fold the rest.
On the flop, it is a clear shove. You still can fold out better hands (Aq, Ak) and get some calls where you are ahead (some random broadways/open enders).
For a shove on the flop you only need 30% to break even. And the combos that crush you are AA (3 combos), sets (9), JTs (3), AKc, AQc, Jj (3), random 2pair. (About 20 combos crush you)
When I give your opponent this wide of a range he has 80% that does not crush you. Against a hand like Kk a shove is break even. And you fold out AQ, AK (22 combos) that are way in front of you.
And when I give my opponent a tighter range, AK and AQ make up more than 30% of his range and the shove is +ev when he folds exactly only those hands.
This holds true except the opponent is so tight that he folds AK and only traps with monsters. But this is not very likely.
...I assumed no opponent is so bad that he calls AK on a 987 flop after cold calling a 4bet.
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