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Live 10/20 spot

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Posted by posted in High Stakes

Live 10/20 spot

Hero: young mid 20's probably perceived as a pro
Villain: seems to be an older recreational reg, knows other older spots at the table and frequently speak to each other in a different language. No history with him although I did see a hand where he flat AA to a single raise OTB and played post flop decently. My initial thought was that he seemed to be someone I wanted to play pots with but not certain quite yet.

Folds to villain who opens 60 otb, I 3b JTo 210, V calls 5k eff. Pot 440

Flop JhTd7h
Hero: 210
V: calls
Pot 860

Turn 6o
Hero: 450
V: 1450 with ~3130 behind...

thoughts on our turn decision?

thanks

6 Comments

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ralphykid67 10 years, 1 month ago

How much do you have behind after your $450 turn bet? This a hard spot and IMO is very player read dependent. Is he a guy that would stick in a raise here with the nuts or more apt to flat and go for river value? And to that point- what are the chances of him having 89 here?

Other than that we are scared of JJ,1010, and 77. All seem reasonable since you've seen him flat AA before. He flats flop here, and goes for protection/value on turn. Makes sense. But would he make this same play with QQ-AA? Here's where the player dependent reads (live reads too) might sway my decision.

FIVEbetbLUFF 10 years, 1 month ago

expliotative read: live players like this will usually raise the flop bet of 210 as it is same as pre flop and on this board and with these stacks, tit looks weak. id expect a live players to usually have in their mind also a big hand would be increasing bet size from pre flop to flop always if they are strong. for that reason, i think he would be raising with his big hands to protect and want to get more money in the pot right then. so on 6 turn, nothing has changed. i think he actually might be turning a pair into a bluff here

FIVEbetbLUFF 10 years, 1 month ago

expliotative read: live players like this will usually raise the flop bet of 210 as it is same as pre flop and on this board and with these stacks, tit looks weak. id expect a live players to usually have in their mind also a big hand would be increasing bet size from pre flop to flop always if they are strong. for that reason, i think he would be raising with his big hands to protect and want to get more money in the pot right then. so on 6 turn, nothing has changed. i think he actually might be turning a pair into a bluff here

slgf2014 10 years, 1 month ago

With TJ we block top and mid pair, and we block mid pair fd. feels like this is a spot to go for x/r on turn depending on his sizing (if he has exploitative turn bet sizings) or x/c down, or if turn goes x/x value size the river from big-bomb depending on his tendencies to give credit to b/x/b line. I think when we check turn a lot of good things can happen, a ten that was folding can make trips, he bluffs his draws, he vbets worse. it is also a board that we are often one and done with aq or ak on flop with bkdr fd and brick the turn so checking our jt protects our checking range on turn.

as played it is tough spot but i would start with a call and decide on rivers, most likely fold given if rivers brick he would expect you to think he has many bluffs with all draws missed. we also beat aj-AA raising for sd, thought i doubt aj raises turn.

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