Live 100NL A-high hero call spot?
Posted by Hoothoot
Posted by Hoothoot posted in Low Stakes
Live 100NL A-high hero call spot?
(pot $26) Flop: 634r
I check, UTG bets $15, I call.
(pot $56) Turn: 7
I check again, UTG checks back.
(pot $56) River: 8
I check again, UTG thinks, and bets $45. Hero?
My thoughts were that on the flop I'm beating a lot still, because the fact that I and the BB limped along pre should make it more likely that UTG is iso'ing in position with a weaker-than-normal raising range which I am ahead of. I expected villain to barrel any over pairs, so when he checks back the turn I feel like I've got the best hand a large % of the time. His large bet on the river was really suspicious, because I don't see him betting any 1-pair hands (that remain in his range) that large. After all, what on earth is he trying to get value from? I've played this hand super passively, so he's got no reason to think that he could get such a large value bet paid off by anything that I could be holding. His value hands here include trickily played overpairs or a set of 7s that he checked turn back with, a rivered set of 8s, or a straight. He can't really have hardly any 5x hands here, and T9s went runner runner to make the nuts. But regardless, even if he did backdoor some monster hand, why bet so large? He's polarized himself here so that my AJ-high is either way ahead or way behind. I also don't see him turning a small pair into a bluff here.
The opposite side of the argument here is that since I'm an unknown, he's probably going to be less likely to try and make a big bluff against me. Especially in a live game, people tend to show up with the goods when they bet large in spots like this. But it still doesn't make any sense to me.
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