Line Check / River Decision.
Posted by Thebing72
Posted by
Thebing72
posted in
High Stakes
Line Check / River Decision.
10/20 6 Max. (4 handed)
This game doesn't run often on this site. Villain is a weaker reg who I don't play with often. The 8 or so orbits we had played so far villain standard open was $60. At this point he was playing pretty straightforward and not being too aggressive. I am very unclear of what his is 3b defending range is here being this deep.
Do you like the line I took here up to the river? Is the river a call or a shove?
165bb Effective.
Co folds, Btn raises to $70, Hero raises AA to $210, BB folds, Btn calls.
Flop (Pot: $440): 8c 7d 6s. Hero checks, Btn checks.
Turn (Pot $440): 8h. Hero Checks, Btn bets $280, Hero Calls.
River (Pot $1000): 8d Hero Checks, Btn bets $800, Hero?
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Of course it's tough to make a decision without knowing what his 3b defending range is, but what I think it comes down to is a ratio between the hands that call and win vs the hands that call your shove and lose.
I didn't take into account the hands that fold, because you have the second nuts, and you would have won for sure against them (8 doesn't fold). A shove then doesn't make you lose equity vs a call (you don't make any better hands fold in this spot.).
The only hand that beats you in this spot is an 8. 88 is out of the equation, since to my knowledge, there's only four 8's in a deck of 52 cards.
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At first, I'll give him the tightest range divided by the widest range, to give us a maximal approximation. After that, I'll calculate the minimal approximation. (Make the average of the two to obtain a good approximation of his range and whether you should call or not)
MOST PROFITABLE APPROXIMATION (tightest range that beats you/ widest calling range that loses):
That leaves A8s for the hands that call a shove and beat you =1 combo.
For the hands that call and lose: (99+, A7s, AKs, AKo)= (6 pairs x 6 different combos)+1+1+(12)=50 combos
The approximation giving you the best odds is therefore 1/50= 0.02
LEAST PROFITABLE APPROXIMATION (widest range that beats you/ tighest calling range that loses):
Range that calls and beats you: A8s, A8o, K8s, K8o, 98s, 10|8s= 1+12+1+12+1+1=28 combos
Range that calls and loses: 99-QQ=6x4=24 combos EDIT: KK and AA eliminated from this range
28/24=1.1666666
AVERAGE OF THE TWO POSSIBILITIES:
(0.02+1.1666)/2= 0.6
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The result of the average of the two extreme ranges is less than 1, making the shove profitable. Keep in mind that his 3bet defending range is probably much tighter than the one including the hands that win against you in the second evaluation, so IMO you're going to be even more profitable than the average indicates.
I looked at it from a mathematical point of view because I barely had any info on your opponent, but what it really comes down to is that you have the second nuts, so there are almost no combos that call and win against you. I don't think you would post this hand if he didn't have the 8, so you probably lost this hand in particular, but I still think a shove is more profitable than a call in this spot.
Hope this helped!
villain is a weak straightforward, not that aggressive reg, not a fish! not sure if he even bets 99-TT this size(maybe JJ) , not saying about 7x. QQ+ he likely get it in pre
its simply more 8x hands than hands we beat & he can call our jam with
Giving him the two possible ranges and making an average of the two gives us a range that he would be likely to play this way. I agree that he would probably try to get it in pre with QQ, but 4 handed he could very well try to keep our range wide, since he would be put in a tough position to call a 5b at 165bb. I took out KK, and aces in the second approximation, but I still think that he would play 99 and TT this way.
Really like your idea to count most and least profitable appproximations.
I'm not sure if it's mathematically correct (if anyone knows, please tell me if I'm right or wrong and why), but it felt like the best way to approach this situation.
How do you get 12 combos of A8o when we hold two Aces? Can OP tell us what two Aces he had, that might even remove A8s!
I would be surprised to see BTN defend K8o even if this is the 'widest' approximation. I would see 98o before K8o as it won't be dominated as often. But then 98o also seems a bit too iwde to be defending as a regular.
I think one false assumption is that you modelled it so there is a uniform distribution between the most profitable and least profitable ranges. I.E. you assume the centre of these two approximations is the 'average', whereas this is unlikely to be the case in reality.
I absolutely agree. However, the false approximation is so much lower than 1 that I think it's safe to assume the shove would be profitable.
You block A8s which probably stabs anyway, and his SC 8x have two pair or a pair + open ender, so they definitely bet.
So because Villian almost never has you beat and you there are worse hands that can call, I'd go ahead and jam.
Only concern is that he xb the floo, which takes many overpairs out of his range.
given that hero, likely correcttly checked AA on this flop deep, I would
argue that villain can and likely should check some overpairs back
himself, along with A8, K8s, Q8s and maybe even T8s/98s.
shove
It would be a little strange if he checked back the flop with 99/TT (imo). And Since he probably knows that you could easily take this flop/turn line with AA/KK you are pretty much banking that he has JJ/QQ and bets big $800 on the river and calls you off? Doesn't seem likely. And there is NO GUARANTEE that he herocalls you with JJ/QQ but he ALWAYS calls you with the nuts. And I think he peels alot of 8x-suited IP this deep and could easily check back the flop with many of them.
It's just a c/c on the river imo (or perhaps a $580 donk or smth?), and I actually don't think it's even close, now that I have thought about it.
(PS. I think your 3bet-size is to small OOP with 165bb effective. Should be at least 240 I think.)
How can this be anything but a shove. I'm so confused. We have AA on 87688 after 3 betting, do we not? How are we so concerned about running into quads here. It would also be relevant to know the suits of you Aces since it dictates whether or not he has 0 or 1 combos of A8s. Other than that... I mean he has up to 1 combo each of K8s-98s which is 5 combos... Maximum... He may bet some of those on the flop which is also going to reduce this number somewhat.
Apotheosis do you have any bluffs when you checkshove river? I guess you obviously have but I wonder what it is? Villain made it only $210 pre OOP vs button, so he can definitely get called very light when they are 165 bb deep. Maybe down to 58s even, because of the 3b size, stackdepths and villain is IP.
Villain valuebets big bet $800 into a range that he should suspect still can have JJ+ on 67888 board with this line, what are villains valuebets? TT+ and 8x? Villain never ever has QQ+ when he calls 3bet preflop AND checks back the flop. And you have to assume that 99/TT/JJ will pretty often bet the flop for protection and knows he rarely gets c/r here because his range contains alot of "nuts".
I wonder how you can so confidently think it is a shove when villains valuehands seems to be some rare rare 99/TT/JJ and at least 4-6 combos of 8x quads. And it's not like you have a guarantee that villain betcalls you with even all the rare 99-JJ combos. But he obv always calls your shove with the quads.
You think it's rare he has quads, but I think it's even more rare he has like JJ and checks back flop and then bets turn and then $800 on the river AND THEN calls your shove with it.
Why would villain wanna valuebet big $800 on the river when he never has QQ+ and very rarely has 99/TT/JJ and heros range could still have JJ+?
It looks sick but I don't see any value to a shove, maybe I'm crazy and bad. "In-game" I probably would have shoved this spot, but when analyzed, I don't actually think it's good.
I mean...He has 0-1 combos of A8s based on card removal and 1 combo each of K8-98 as I suggested. If we want to add 1 combo of 85s that's fine too. we now have between 6 and 7 combos from preflop. I doubt he checks them all back 100% which means we're probably looking at ~ 1/2 those combos postflop. I'm also a little suspicious that this guy opened to 70 here all of the sudden... seems like J8s is not the most likely candidate for a spontaneous pot open.
Now consider the following.
99-JJ is 18 combos.
-They play like this pre 100%.
-They play turn like this 100%.
-They play river like this 100% (especially if he's weaker, I doubt he assumes you have AA here).
-How they play the flop is up for debate but I'd argue that it's probably fairly likely they take this line.
Either way, the % of the combos that play the flop this way is the % that takes this line up to the river. If that # is 1/2 then he has to bet/call 1/3 of the time which I'm sure he does.
I'm going to be honest, his preflop sizing combined with his river sizing makes me want to think he has JJ here quite a bit. (Good enough to pot pre, not connected enough to bet/call flop, strong enough to pot river since he beats your overpairs that check call flop frequently (TT/99).
As for how I'd be bluffing here I think I might actually lead this river with most of my range given how good it is for me. That being said, I'm more than capable of finding a bluff here. AK comes to mind and probably balances itself pretty nicely combo-wise if I have KK/AA (12) some # of 8x and 13 combos of AK (no bdfd). Also, I'm not going to jam AK 100% of the time
It's such a nutted flop for IP that I have a hard time believing that he would check behind on the flop with 99-JJ (JJ is the most likely hand he would check back though, as you said).
He shouldn't get checkraised on the flop alot at all, so he could just bet for protection and he is uncapped to nutty hands on this board so hero have to c/c alot. I think a weaker-reg would put in a "protection-wanna-see-where-I-am" - bet very often. It is obviously pure speculation from my part, but from own experience by playing these players I would say he bets the flop absolute minimum 50% of the time. And that's generous.
Would he bet $800 with 99? TT? I mean, it can't possible be good vs this 99+/AK/6x/7x range.
If he bets $800 with 99 he is targeting your 6x/7x and AK herocalls. But those could just fold to this big bet since you are protected by the overpairs. So his valuebet achieves nothing else more then just valuetowning himself.
If he bets $800 with TT he is targeting the same range and your 99. But once again, they could just fold, except the 99? Targeting one of your six overpairs that he beats, achieves the same stupid valuetowning himself again.
Same goes for JJ.
Your overpairs: 99-AA
His: 99-JJ
And not only does he have to worry about your overpairs, he has to worry you checkshove QQ/KK/AA.
Any half decent reg should realize you could have AA here, it's a standard line to take on this board OOP in your 3betted pot. If he couldn't understand that then obviously this becomes an easy shove, because then he would always bet big with the overpairs and think he has the nuts and always call it off in confusion.
And I do believe that the rare 4-6 combos of 8x would bet big, almost always. And I don't think that about 99-JJ because I assume he should realize you could have all the overpairs. But maybe I'm off on that, I don't know. But even weak-bad regs must have played alot and seen that this is a standard-line with a hand like AA in this spot.
I'm not a fan of leading the river and turning the post flop action to the reverse trend, since a good part of our range doesn't connect a lot with this board, besides having a lot of overpairs to it. The problem on leading is that he may feel uncomfortable near the top of his range, like JJ or TT and you can't make it small enough to give him a opportunity to just call and showdown it cheaply. His river size doesn't look like an 8 very much, since your range contains a lot of AK, AQs (who aren't good bluff catchers on this river) and some KQs, 99+. I don't think 99 or TT can call profitably on this 800/1000 bet, and KK and AA should jam this for value. JJ I rather just call and QQ is the most difficult hand to play this spot, probably a balanced strategy would be best. Jamming and expecting a crying call from 99-JJ is the best option, in my opinion.
I'm not saying you're completely wrong or anything I just think that seeing as how villain was described as a weaker reg AND potted preflop does a few things.
1) makes it less likely he thinks you have AA
2) makes it more likely he had a fairly strong hand pre. I doubt people randomly start pot opening with 8x suited type hands. This is potentially due to the bigger stack depth but I'm not sure a weaker reg would do that.
Also, fwiw, I'm not sure how weak a "weak reg" is going to be here. OPs post makes it sound like this is on some obscure network (where I assume regs are weaker than on stars by default), so I'm picturing a weak 2k reg being like a mediocre midstakes stars reg here. Like your average 400 NL guy. I think if thats the case then I'm happy shoving.
(I could completely be wrong here, I don't know how tough this sort of network is since I don't play on them but that's the conclusion I came to.)
It's tough to speculate about his hand based on the opening size, it might be JJ, it might be a 58s who just potted it by accident and then got a good price.
A shove or c/c should definitely depend on the reg (of course) and some history the OP has had with him.
There are some regs I wouldn't wanna shove against here, and some others I probably should.
But maybe donking the river is the way to go in todays games (at least against solid regs) because how ranges usually look up to this riverspot. Hard to say, but the $800 size is most likely a very bad size, I think you'll agree with that.
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