Leaks analysis - Big downswing
Posted by camikaze007
Posted by
camikaze007
posted in
Low Stakes
Leaks analysis - Big downswing
Hi there,
Long-time lurker but this is my first post on RIO. I started playing around 2 years ago on stars at NL2 and pretty soon got off the mark and ran a bankroll up to NL10 over 130,000 hands within a year. I haven't been able to play as much as i'd like due to university commitments but, long story short, I haven't had a winning month since last October and have lost 2/3 of my bankroll. I moved down to NL5 after losing 10BI at NL10 and have lost another 25BI at NL5 since then (was previously winning at 5bb/100). I moved back down to NL2 and have been breaking even over the last 10,000 hands (meaningless sample but only moved down at the beginning of the month and I was previously winning at 15bb/100). Any ideas on what's happened? I can't have suddenly become a terrible player so that either means I was never that good to begin with or i'm running catastrophically badly. I post a fair few hand history's on reddit and most people agree that I played these hands well and I have also watched a large selection of live play videos here at RIO for the microstakes and I play very similarly but I didn't think a run bad of this level was possible for a player who should (theoretically) be winning at 5bb/100.
I'm comparing my stats from before this winning period to after it all went wrong and they are pretty much the same so I guess what i'm asking is for anybody to take a quick glance at some of my stats and see if there are any glaring leaks (for the micros).
Alternatively, if there are any stats that are not here that you guys have felt have really helped plug some leaks would you kindly let me know.
Position - SB/BB/EP/MP/CO/BTN (Total)
VPIP - 24/23/11/14/20/27 (19)
PFR - 19/8/11/13/17/22 (15)
3bet PF - 7/6/3/3/4/5 (5.31)
CC - 6/20/6/6/8/9 (10.5)
Fv3bet - 63/38/39/51/54 (51)
Att to Steal - 52/-/-/-/26/45 (38)
Fv Steal - 84/68/-/-/-/- (75)
CBet F - 69/75/65/67/66/67 (67)
CBet T - 34/39/48/38/41/35 (40)
Fv CBet - 55/53/53/56/54/52 (54)
WTSD % - 25/25/27/25/27/25 (25.6)
BB/100 EV - -17/-43/8/14/26/20
I know it's a lot to ask but I really don't know where to go from here.
Thanks in advance
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Hello, in my own experience (just in case you find it useful):
When I moved from tournaments to cash, I started playing directly at NL5. Everything ran smoothly fine during the first 50k hands or so, winning at ~9bb/100h.
But when I started at NL10, everything's changed and I lost at a rate of almost 10bb/100. I was playing pretty much the same, though.
Here are the impressions I got:
That was my small contribution.
Greetings
Okay thanks very much, it's at least nice to know that someone else could have such fluctuations in win rate when playing the same strategy.
Hey, my initial impressions are that you're playing too tight, especially in steal positions like the CO and the BTN. Your 3 bet percentage is also too low, look to 3 bet thinner for value against players who are playing way too many hands preflop. Your turn cbet % is also too low meaning that you're often stabbing the flop with hands that aren't able or just don't barrel the turn. You should put some work into thinking about your flop c-betting strategy and what kinds of turns you're going to follow up with bets. You're also likely folding too often to flop c-bets unless tons of these pots are going multi-way. This is likely a combination of you not being quite as good as thought and some run bad. Keep your head up and get some studying in and you'll be back to winning in no time.
This is perfect thank you. I have recently been 3betting at an 8/9% value but I've been using a polarised strategy from most positions which I suspect isn't working as well against the recreational players and should just look to open up my value range vs these players.
A lot of these pots do end up multiway but i'll filter for FvCbet in HU pots to see if this is a potential issue.
Thanks again
Too tight + big downswing = probable mental game issues. You know as soon as you feel the need to win pots, think about money, and not just play your hands, you're chasing. He's playing tight so when he gets a piece of the board he feels like he absolutely needs to win the pot since he's been losing so much lately. Villain sees this at the tables and exploits it over time.
Looking at your stats, I would profile you as someone who is maybe a little afraid to take high-variance spots. You seem a little too tight across the board, and that's not limited to individual statistics. So besides looking at improving in individual spots, and I would say that James's recommendations are spot on, I would also recommend to you to take a look at whether your mindset is too risk-avoiding.
This is very true, I feel like I often pass up high variance spots these days because recently i've been losing most of them and I often feel as though I have such an edge on the competition (although this is plainly not true anymore :D) that I often just think "wait for a better spot". Any suggestions on how to counteract this?
I think my stats seem a little tight because I began playing at FR and then moved to 6-max so it's kind of a mix of both (which I realise now is not very helpful); this is not to say i'm not playing too tight mind you but I feel the stats are a little skewed because of this.
Thanks very much for the comment!
Careful with this... Your definition of high variance spots might be expanding to the point that you're just passing up on standard spots. It's also important to realize that unless you're spending a decent amount of the time studying off the table and looking at different ranges etc. that you might not be recognizing spots that are high variance versus regular old variance spots as well as you think.
Hello,
James has given you some interesting trails. I just want to add other interesting ones.
First, can you, please, tell us about your WSD (Won at Showdown) and Call River Efficiency stats? One possible reason for your current downswing is the fact you may make a call you should not on the river and, then, make spews on some pots.
Second, maybe you do not take the advantage of taking orphan pots on the turn enough. I mean, when you have one or more villains who check on the flop and check again on the turn, you may not dare to bet enough, even in bluff, to win the pot: generally, double checks must be understood as the fact the villains doing so are not interested in the pot and have already given up.
Third, maybe you have mental leaks which reduce your winrate. For example, you may be a TAG player who wins little pots because of a predictable game and can experiment some kinds of tilt leading to make spews on huge pots on the river. And mental leaks can explain some of your stats, and even what BarracudaNL has said.
My WSD is at 55% with a WWSF at 45% and my Call R Eff is at 1.77.
Good second point, in these spots I normally just try to check it down and realise my equity at showdown. Maybe I should try and bet on the turn and then follow it up with a river barrel in appropriate spots against weak/tight regs.
I do find that I get a bit tilted these days when I never used too (probably a function of my recent results) and it happens most when calling rivers with bluffcatchers and losing; my mental game is something that i've been focusing on over the past couple of weeks but I find it's not a technical aspect that can be studied so easily and therefore find it difficult to work on it.
Thanks for the response - you've given some interesting food for thought!
Your WSD does not seem bad and your WWSF is normal. Your CRE is a bit low: it should be 2 at least.
Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that HM and PT record this stat differently so it's possible that this is actually quite high.
This is on PT4 - what should an optimal CRE be?
On PT4, 2.
I was thinking about this stat the other day, didn't have a clue about optimal values. Mine is 2.09 :P
what number of CRE would be good / minimum in HM2, please?
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