Leak Or Cooler?
Posted by lightfallsup
Posted by
lightfallsup
posted in
Mid Stakes
Leak Or Cooler?
UTG: $356.50
HJ: $262.60
CO: $200
BN: $197
SB: $211 (Hero)
BB: $219.48
HJ: $262.60
CO: $200
BN: $197
SB: $211 (Hero)
BB: $219.48
A few notes going in: This hand was played on Bovada so there isn't any back history other than at this table. Or at least, none that I am aware of and neither would he be so it shouldn't be in play. I'm not sure if there are many Bovada players on here, so the variables may be a little odd to communicate if you're not used to anonymous tables.
At this point, I've been at the table for a little over half an hour and have played 9 hands. The player who is UTG has joined me on 7 of those. He's not playing every hand with anyone else so either he happens to be picking up hands when I do or he's looking to play pots with me.
He stacked me twice earlier in this session. In the first, I got it in on the turn with top set vs. his overpair and he hit on the river. In the second, I got it in on the flop with a straight vs. middle pair and he runner runner'd a flush. So he could be one of those players who "plays the rush" and wants to play as many pots as possible against someone he's running super good against. Or he could think I'm a poor player and be looking to play against me though so far I've only shown down strong hands in the two cases of showdown (both against him). Or, like I said, he could just be happening to pick up hands when I do. Hard to be certain with a small sample size like this.
Other relevant info: The table so far has shown a good amount of light early position raises and the tendency to call 3bets OOP light, so I've 3bet a number of times already, once in a squeeze spot and once vs. HJ standard open raise. Both times with hands, but it still shows a pretty good size 3bet stat from me and always in position across this small sample size. Also, I've cbet almost every time (again, only 9 total played hands) that I've been the pfr in a hand.
At this point, I've been at the table for a little over half an hour and have played 9 hands. The player who is UTG has joined me on 7 of those. He's not playing every hand with anyone else so either he happens to be picking up hands when I do or he's looking to play pots with me.
He stacked me twice earlier in this session. In the first, I got it in on the turn with top set vs. his overpair and he hit on the river. In the second, I got it in on the flop with a straight vs. middle pair and he runner runner'd a flush. So he could be one of those players who "plays the rush" and wants to play as many pots as possible against someone he's running super good against. Or he could think I'm a poor player and be looking to play against me though so far I've only shown down strong hands in the two cases of showdown (both against him). Or, like I said, he could just be happening to pick up hands when I do. Hard to be certain with a small sample size like this.
Other relevant info: The table so far has shown a good amount of light early position raises and the tendency to call 3bets OOP light, so I've 3bet a number of times already, once in a squeeze spot and once vs. HJ standard open raise. Both times with hands, but it still shows a pretty good size 3bet stat from me and always in position across this small sample size. Also, I've cbet almost every time (again, only 9 total played hands) that I've been the pfr in a hand.
Preflop
($3.00)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
K
CO posts big blind, UTG raises to $8, HJ calls $8, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $26, BB folds, UTG calls $18, HJ calls $18
CO posts big blind, UTG raises to $8, HJ calls $8, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $26, BB folds, UTG calls $18, HJ calls $18
Seems pretty standard so far. My nemesis comes along from UTG. This early, I'm not sure what to make of his coming with me on nearly every hand I play, but I also don't think he's super light so suited Aces (he likes his flush draws), most pairs, and probably some suited broadway combinations are in his range. I don't expect him to be flatting a 3bet OOP on HJ with something like 67s, but I suppose you never know. I haven't seen him play any non-broadway SCs so far.
HJ has a similar range, though I don't think he plays his big aces this way (I saw him flat/4bet AQ earlier in the session) and I think he'd be dropping his smaller suited Aces, though he has shown he likes to flat and set-mine with a pair so I think any pair is in his reach, as well as A9s-AJ, and perhaps a few KQ type hands. He hasn't shown down any non-Ace broadway cards so far, but it's too small a sample to be narrowing those out, I think.
HJ has a similar range, though I don't think he plays his big aces this way (I saw him flat/4bet AQ earlier in the session) and I think he'd be dropping his smaller suited Aces, though he has shown he likes to flat and set-mine with a pair so I think any pair is in his reach, as well as A9s-AJ, and perhaps a few KQ type hands. He hasn't shown down any non-Ace broadway cards so far, but it's too small a sample to be narrowing those out, I think.
Flop
($81.00)
A
9
9
(3 Players)
Hero bets $52,
UTG calls $52,
HJ folds
Pretty standard cbet with TPTK. I think I can get action from smaller aces, some 'tween pairs (TT-KK), perhaps a flush draw from UTG. It's possible either player could have a nine but the only 9 I expect out of HJ is A9s and that's a pretty small part of his range. UTG seems to go more for suited Aces and suited broadways rather than middle SC, though I won't narrow out hands like 97 or 98 entirely. I would expect either of these players to raise with a 9 here since I'm so likely to have an Ace and give them at least one more bet, even knowing I cbet a lot.
As it turns out, UTG flats and HJ is done with it (small pair probably). The timing on UTG's call makes me think I'm either dealing with another A or a flush draw. His flat was pretty fast, and I think he'd have put a little more thought into it with something like JJ just because there's an Ace out and my 3bet/cbet line looks like an Ace in this spot. He might have still called since I've been cbetting pretty often, but I think he'd have taken a moment to think about it.
As it turns out, UTG flats and HJ is done with it (small pair probably). The timing on UTG's call makes me think I'm either dealing with another A or a flush draw. His flat was pretty fast, and I think he'd have put a little more thought into it with something like JJ just because there's an Ace out and my 3bet/cbet line looks like an Ace in this spot. He might have still called since I've been cbetting pretty often, but I think he'd have taken a moment to think about it.
Turn
($185.00)
Q
(2 Players)
Hero bets $133, and is all in,
UTG calls $133
I can't think of a card I'd rather see less than this one because AQ is a good chunk of his range, but it seems like my options are limited. If I check here, I think given the SPR, he shoves almost everything, but even if he doesn't, given his love of the flush draws, I don't think I can risk giving him a free card to chase it. Besides, with the exception of a non-spade total brick river, I'm in no better spot that I am now. At this point, it seems like I'm either well ahead vs. his other ace, playing a possible split if he happens to have AK, or trying to stay ahead of his flush draw.
If he is playing a 'tween pair like TT and I bet here and I was wrong about his flop call-timing, I probably lose him, but I don't think I'm getting another bet out of him anyway at this point.
It's still possible I'm dealing with 9x in this spot, but I'm not sure given SPR that I'm going to be able to get away from the hand anyway seeing as it makes up such a small part of his range, most of which I'm well ahead of. The only hands I have to worry about are hands like AQ or 9x, but given my read that he's likely to shove if I check anyway, I can't see myself folding to his range. So it makes more sense to bet out, I think, especially since he's apt to call with both the flush draws and smaller aces but may check behind with those some percentage of time. Basically, if I check and he shoves, I'm calling and don't see the point in risking him checking behind a draw.
If I'm betting, given where things stand in terms of stack size, a shove seems like the only move.
If he is playing a 'tween pair like TT and I bet here and I was wrong about his flop call-timing, I probably lose him, but I don't think I'm getting another bet out of him anyway at this point.
It's still possible I'm dealing with 9x in this spot, but I'm not sure given SPR that I'm going to be able to get away from the hand anyway seeing as it makes up such a small part of his range, most of which I'm well ahead of. The only hands I have to worry about are hands like AQ or 9x, but given my read that he's likely to shove if I check anyway, I can't see myself folding to his range. So it makes more sense to bet out, I think, especially since he's apt to call with both the flush draws and smaller aces but may check behind with those some percentage of time. Basically, if I check and he shoves, I'm calling and don't see the point in risking him checking behind a draw.
If I'm betting, given where things stand in terms of stack size, a shove seems like the only move.
River
($451.00)
J
(2 Players)
Final Pot
UTG has
A
Q
Hero has
A
K
UTG
wins $449
He ended up having AQ, so I lost. That doesn't concern me so much, but I do want to consider whether or not there's something I missed. Is my thinking incorrect?
It seems silly to me to check/fold the turn even knowing that AQ is right in the middle of his range, but I don't want to delude myself and keep making stupid moves if I'm just forgetting something or not taking something important into account.
I should say that my gut told me he had AQ but I couldn't come up with a single good reason to take it seriously, except that he could possibly have it and that doesn't seem like a very good reason to me, gut or no gut.
Essentially, I'm not sure if all this is standard as hell and it just didn't go my way this time, or if perhaps I've been leaking in situations like this for years.
Loading 6 Comments...
When Villian opens 4x UTG and calls a BB squeeze with someone behind, his range should be fairly strong.
Unfortunately, I don't have the attention span to read all of what you wrote, so I'll just look at him as a regular Villian.
On the flop you should pretty much always have the best hand. Since the cold caller is in the HJ, he has almost no SCs like 89s or T9s. This would be more likely, had he been on the BTN.
Like I said before, Villians range should be strong, so we're probably looking at AJs, AQ+/99+ and not much else.
One of them pretty much always has a ace here, so I like your value bet. I'd go half pot here with my whole range. You don't need to protect from much, and your fold equity does not change with your bet sizing. If you were bluffing, you'd want a cheap price as well./
On the turn, there is no value in betting anymore. AJ is now dead against AQ, and loses to AK etc., so Villian will probably fold that hand.
Since there is no value, check the hand. Assuming he shoves the turn, it's a close spot.
You'll be getting good odds to call, but on the other hand, you only beat naked spades. And since he has a narrow range, almost all of his flush draws would be Ahigh, which is blocked because of the As on the flop.
I'd probably squeeze for more preflop - around $35. I know it's big but since you mentioned that villians like calling oop light, it only makes sense. Like the c-bet on the flop. Don't like the bet on the turn very much - no more value from any hands you beat. Call a brick/non-spade river bet.
How is this a leak if he binked 3 outer on you on the turn even when you guys are committed on the flop?
A person could easily have a leak that comes into view in situations where he/she gets unlucky. I don't think the two are mutually exclusive and since the odds favor getting "unlucky" with some regularity, it makes sense to watch those types of spots for errors in judgment.
I think a lot of people, whenever they get unlucky, immediately call it a cooler and move on. Very smart on your part to analyze, and see if this was a leak. +1 to that.
Chael answered the question about the postflop play very well, but I just wanted to add that you yourself noted that the whole table was calling 3bs light OOP, so the logical adjustment would be to 3b bigger for value, right? Any particular reason you didn't 3b bigger, especially since there was another player involved, and you saw the UTG player was willing to put in a lot of chips with less than the nuts?
No, I definitely should have. Sometimes I get overly concerned about balance and want to keep my light 3bets cheaper so I don't push as far on value 3bets. Not a good reason, but that's basically all there is to it.
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