Leak Or Cooler?
Posted by lightfallsup
Posted by
lightfallsup
posted in
Mid Stakes
Leak Or Cooler?
HJ: $262.60
CO: $200
BN: $197
SB: $211 (Hero)
BB: $219.48
At this point, I've been at the table for a little over half an hour and have played 9 hands. The player who is UTG has joined me on 7 of those. He's not playing every hand with anyone else so either he happens to be picking up hands when I do or he's looking to play pots with me.
He stacked me twice earlier in this session. In the first, I got it in on the turn with top set vs. his overpair and he hit on the river. In the second, I got it in on the flop with a straight vs. middle pair and he runner runner'd a flush. So he could be one of those players who "plays the rush" and wants to play as many pots as possible against someone he's running super good against. Or he could think I'm a poor player and be looking to play against me though so far I've only shown down strong hands in the two cases of showdown (both against him). Or, like I said, he could just be happening to pick up hands when I do. Hard to be certain with a small sample size like this.
Other relevant info: The table so far has shown a good amount of light early position raises and the tendency to call 3bets OOP light, so I've 3bet a number of times already, once in a squeeze spot and once vs. HJ standard open raise. Both times with hands, but it still shows a pretty good size 3bet stat from me and always in position across this small sample size. Also, I've cbet almost every time (again, only 9 total played hands) that I've been the pfr in a hand.
CO posts big blind, UTG raises to $8, HJ calls $8, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $26, BB folds, UTG calls $18, HJ calls $18
HJ has a similar range, though I don't think he plays his big aces this way (I saw him flat/4bet AQ earlier in the session) and I think he'd be dropping his smaller suited Aces, though he has shown he likes to flat and set-mine with a pair so I think any pair is in his reach, as well as A9s-AJ, and perhaps a few KQ type hands. He hasn't shown down any non-Ace broadway cards so far, but it's too small a sample to be narrowing those out, I think.
As it turns out, UTG flats and HJ is done with it (small pair probably). The timing on UTG's call makes me think I'm either dealing with another A or a flush draw. His flat was pretty fast, and I think he'd have put a little more thought into it with something like JJ just because there's an Ace out and my 3bet/cbet line looks like an Ace in this spot. He might have still called since I've been cbetting pretty often, but I think he'd have taken a moment to think about it.
If he is playing a 'tween pair like TT and I bet here and I was wrong about his flop call-timing, I probably lose him, but I don't think I'm getting another bet out of him anyway at this point.
It's still possible I'm dealing with 9x in this spot, but I'm not sure given SPR that I'm going to be able to get away from the hand anyway seeing as it makes up such a small part of his range, most of which I'm well ahead of. The only hands I have to worry about are hands like AQ or 9x, but given my read that he's likely to shove if I check anyway, I can't see myself folding to his range. So it makes more sense to bet out, I think, especially since he's apt to call with both the flush draws and smaller aces but may check behind with those some percentage of time. Basically, if I check and he shoves, I'm calling and don't see the point in risking him checking behind a draw.
If I'm betting, given where things stand in terms of stack size, a shove seems like the only move.
He ended up having AQ, so I lost. That doesn't concern me so much, but I do want to consider whether or not there's something I missed. Is my thinking incorrect?
It seems silly to me to check/fold the turn even knowing that AQ is right in the middle of his range, but I don't want to delude myself and keep making stupid moves if I'm just forgetting something or not taking something important into account.
I should say that my gut told me he had AQ but I couldn't come up with a single good reason to take it seriously, except that he could possibly have it and that doesn't seem like a very good reason to me, gut or no gut.
Essentially, I'm not sure if all this is standard as hell and it just didn't go my way this time, or if perhaps I've been leaking in situations like this for years.
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