KTs interesting spot NL25

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KTs interesting spot NL25

http://weaktight.com/5979509

Villain: 18/17 (These are probably old hands). He was very aggro at the table, and very active!!

I stoved a range for him, and there are the results:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt  22,770  games     0.001 secs    22,770,000  games/secBoard: Qc 6c TdDead:   equity win tie      pots won pots tied Hand 0: 55.167%   55.04% 00.13%         12533       28.50   { QQ+, TT, AcQc, AcJc, AQo }Hand 1: 44.833%   44.71% 00.13%         10180       28.50   { KcTc }

I'm not sure if AK and KK+ is in his range... Was this the right move?


3 Comments

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Chael Sonnen 11 years, 8 months ago

You should not be 3-betting this hand. If he's been very active, just call. You're bloating the pot OOP with a hand that is very easily dominated.
Against a tighter player, you should fold pre-flop.

Bet 3.50 on the flop, and get the money in when he raises. You have a ton of equity, but you don't have showdown value right now, and your equity decreases heavily, when you miss on the turn.

He might raise some worse flush draws, or have some bluffs with outs/blockers.
An active player probably 4-bets QQ, so you're really looking at TT, and maybe 66, even against that top of his range, you have good equity. Against the weaker part of his value range and bluffs, you do very well.

TheLove_Below 11 years, 7 months ago

I needed my Coffee, before i could analyze this hand for you :p

I used Pokerstove/Flopzilla to solve for flop Situation when faced with a raise

1) I gave Villain a plausible 3-bet calling range IP {99-22,A9s-A2s,K9s-K6s,QTs-Q6s,J7s+,T8s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s,ATo-A7o,KJo-K8o,Q8o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o,87o}

On the flop, I basically want to analyze our 3-options(call/raise/fold), to see which returns the highest profit VS Villains overall hand range. I think i took out the Call option, since we're 100BB deep, and that our only option on turn is Call/Fold, thus making it into a 2-street analysis. I'll be dealing with the option of (fold/Raise here)

EV(fold)=0, since the money we are giving up on the hand

EV(4-betting/calling jam)=

*) Factors we look into, when 4-betting a villains flop-raise. 

1)We need to know how often he is bluff-raising us on the flop?

2) We want to determine what hands he is bluffraising/semi-bluffing us with on the flop as best as we can. 

3)We need to know villains value-raising or shoving range= the value raising range is easier to determine, since theres only a set amount of hands that villain is likely to commit with.

Using Flopzilla: Villain has total 357 combinations on flop, and 

theres 

*)Value range=3 combinations (sets)+ 12 combinations (2-pair)+ 36 combinations (Top-pair)

*)Draws= OESD(44 combos)+Gutshots(52 combos)+FD(21 combos)

*)Combo-draws(9 combos)

****) By Using Flopzilla, we break down our opponents likely full-range of hands, and his relative Hand strength on Flop texture.

T(c)K(c) VS Villains value raising range

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt  20,790  games     0.001 secs    20,790,000  games/secBoard: Td 6c QcDead:   equity win tie      pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 53.949%    53.95% 00.00%         11216        0.00   { 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, QhTh, QsTs, Qd6d, Qh6h, Qs6s, QdJc, QdJh, QdJs, QhJc, QhJd, QhJs, QsJc, QsJd, QsJh, QdTc, QdTh, QdTs, QhTc, QhTs, QsTc, QsTh }Hand 1:  46.051%    46.05% 00.00%          9574        0.00   { KcTc }

ANalysis 2: So what is VIllains Likely Calling range on Flop: Villain has 141 combos of any pair,and i dont think he's turning any pair into bluff(frequent enough). For most part if Villain flops A6 type hand, he is more likely calling 1-street IP, as opposed to raising this hand. And i think Villain is calling with a majority of his OESD+ weak FD IP on flop. 

141(any pair combo)+54(OESD combo)+10(FD combo)=195 total IP calling combos.

195/357 total preflop combos=54.6% is calling IP on flop=

100%-54.6%=45.4% is likely a play back range for Villain consisting of Nuts/ Air that villain is turning into bluff, for a polarized flop raising range

Villains Value hand range=1.8%

Villains Combodraw hand range=0.7%

=1.8%+0.7%=2.5% value range

Based on aggression levels(from what you stated in text) we could make the assumptions that Villain is taking a certain % of the Air that he's folding, and turning them into a bluff.

 So we give VIllain approximate 15% of Gutshots/BDFD that he's turning into bluffs, as his play-back range. 

Pokerstove: 

Scenario 1) In this scenario, we have a rough estimate that Villain is likely bluffing us 15% of the times on Flop, thus making his total FLop raising range/% to come out as 17.5% total flop raising %= 2.5%/17.5%=14.3% We are against a Value range, where our equity is apprx 45.2% equity 

equity win tie      pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 54.776%    54.78% 00.00%          9761        0.00   { 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, QhTh, QsTs, Qd6d, Qh6h, Qs6s, QdJc, QhJc, QhJd, QsJc, QsJd, QsJh, QdTc, QdTh, QdTs, QhTc, QhTs, QsTc, QsTh }

Hand 1: 45.224%   45.22%   00.00%             8059           0.00   { KcTc }

Scenario 2) 15%/17.5%=85.7% of the times, i'm going to win the hand without a showdown.

Pot:$14.77             Effective stacks:$15.5      total pot we get it in with:$50.1

EV(bet/4-bet)=.857($14.77)+.143($50.1*.452)-.143($25*.55)=$12.65+$3.24-$1.96=+$13.93 EV

thus making 4-bet the more optimal play on flop.


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