KT hits 2 pair on turn, fold to 3rd barrel on this runout anyway?
Posted by J J
Posted by
J J
posted in
Low Stakes
KT hits 2 pair on turn, fold to 3rd barrel on this runout anyway?
Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (4 Players)
CO: $6.86
BN: $5.00 (Hero)
SB: $5.09
BB: $5.00
BN: $5.00 (Hero)
SB: $5.09
BB: $5.00
Villain is 12/12 over 25 hands, basically unknown
Preflop
($0.07)
Hero is BN with
T
K
, ,
Flop
($0.37)
7
J
K
,
Turn
($0.97)
7
J
K
T
,
River
($2.35)
7
J
K
T
5
,
Final Pot
CO wins $2.25
Rake is $0.10
Rake is $0.10
I figure his 3 barreling range (without a read and given that overbluffing is rare at this level) would be something like AA (6), KK (1), JJ (3), 77 (3), KJ (6), 89s (4), A2-AQdd (11) = 34 combos I'm losing to, with me only beating maybe AK (8). Relatively new to combo/range analysis, is this a reasonable conclusion?
Loading 6 Comments...
we beat AA dont we?
honestly I think you have to call, he could be vbetting worse. But I certainly dont blame you for folding...
but its 4max, this is close to the top of our range and he can be betting JT, AK, AA and rare bluff...since he is unknown he might bet kq too, what do we know
Hum, I feel like the regs I encounter most often check AK/KQ on the river, though of course it's definitely possible they wouldn't... do you think exploitative over-folding in close spots against unknowns is a bad default policy given the general under-bluffing at this level?
thats obviously a decent strategy, its just that this particular hand/spot is not THAT close. The general assumptions towards undercalling/assuming that everybody is way more passive than they should be make this close, but still a call.
fwiw both me and knoxox are the guys who advocate folding/bluffcatching as little as possible the most out of all the regs in these forums.
Yeah we beat AA so its 28 combos we lose to.
We beat AK (8), AA (6), JT (6) - with that small range, we have 42% and we are getting 42% from pot odds.
Because he's an unknown, this could go either way!
Oh yeah, didn't consider JT, nice. Not sure why I spaced out and put AA in the beaten range, lul. Those two shifts certainly change things... but when it comes to close spots with no reads my first instinct is to default to over-folding at this level, err on the side of caution in general. I may have to reconsider...
I'm definitely calling here.
Be the first to add a comment