KK OOP on the river

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KK OOP on the river

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $10.72
SB: $19.14 (Hero)
BB: $11.02
UTG: $10.20
MP: $9.91
CO: $18.71
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is SB with K K
3 folds, BN raises to $0.25, Hero raises to $0.85, BB folds, BN calls $0.60
Flop ($1.80) 6 T 8
Hero bets $0.90, BN calls $0.90
Turn ($3.60) 6 T 8 7
Hero checks, BN bets $2.61, Hero calls $2.61
River ($8.82) 6 T 8 7 6
Hero checks, BN bets $6.36 and is all in, Hero

I have 281 hands on villain, 27/23 with fold to 3b 0/4, postflop aggression of 1.9.

Preflop and flop seem standard. Turn check is because triple barreling seems very marginal and it gives him a chance to barrel with a lot of random broadway flop floats.

On the river I think I made a mistake folding. If we put villain on 77-JJ and sometimes QQ I am given just the right odds to call just from his "value" bets.

However, villain may not always have/bet JJ and QQ on this river, and may underbluff hands like QJs.

What do you think? Would villain bet for thin value with JJ, or bluff in this spot? I don't see many people at these stakes bluff shoving in similar situations here.

10 Comments

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klamsauce 8 years, 10 months ago

Villain is polarized from the turn onward. He isn't betting anything ott that we beat. I don't see why he would be betting JJ unless he's bluffing with it, which is ridiculous.

" If we put villain on 77-JJ and sometimes QQ I am given just the right odds to call just from his "value" bets." --- I don't understand this either. 77-TT we do not beat. JJ-QQ are not turning themselves into bluffs. Why would they?

Basically calling turn folding river is spew. We need to either fold turn or call down. If we put villain on a polar range from the turn, we assume he is betting his 9x straights, which he has a lot, possibly some sets which now are boats/quads. Then he can have some bluffs like club club floats with overs. QJcc/AJcc are perfect examples of some bluffs he can have. His range in it's entirety is bet betting the turn/river whether it's a bluff or value. Personally I think he has too many value combos to warrant calling down in this spot.

sauloCosta10 8 years, 10 months ago

We need to either fold turn or call down

His range in it's entirety is bet betting the turn/river whether it's a bluff or value

I dont think that is necessarily true and I would like to have reads before I assume a particular villain from NL10 follows with his bluffs OTR always

screamdustry 8 years, 10 months ago

Yeah, im on board with Saulo with this one, i dont think that call turn/fold river is necessary a spew, its because villain's not necessary continuing all his bluffs from turn to river.

Its weird with this spot, im not really sure how we should play KK here, how high is it in our range, how often we should be defending it etc.

If SB is 3betting with linear strategy, he's there with same 9x amount as BU, given that BU have bluffs in his range we need to (?) defend some more and KK/AA are only lower in range than TT/99.

Difficult spot, dont know how to defend here, but we have to somehow, given how good bluffing spot it is for villain. Its a spot where we shouldnt definetely cbet all 9x at turn.

jas0n7 8 years, 10 months ago

Yeah, it makes sense to check fold OTT as I suppose I don't have a good plan for the river.
Thanks for your help.

Disharmonist 8 years, 10 months ago

Fold turn already. you dont need confirmation 2 times that you are beat.

sauloCosta10 8 years, 10 months ago

I don't think thats good because villain will float the flop with lots of overs + BDFD like KhQh, KdJd, and when we check he is almost certainly stabbing with those hands. But when we check/call and there is the river, people get scared to bluff shove so they just check back their air. Thats why I would check/call turn and check/fold river vs aggression

Dddogkillah 8 years, 10 months ago

If we call turn we should really call river on the 6 pairing imo.
But I agree with Disharm, doutful he bets turn with Tx that often, close to 21 combos of 9x improve to str, he might not even be betting all his Gutshots here.
So if your not going to stick with the bluff catch, I think folding turn is totally fine.
In a vacuum we probably have EQ to call here, but if you take into account he is going to be betting river often, folding could be the play.
OTT against over pairs+, FD's we have under 30% id imagine, give him some gutshots it might jump to 30-33%.

Kuduku 8 years, 10 months ago

Villain is polarized from the turn onward. He isn't betting anything ott that we beat. I don't see why he would be betting JJ unless he's bluffing with it, which is ridiculous.
" If we put villain on 77-JJ and sometimes QQ I am given just the right odds to call just from his "value" bets." --- I don't understand this either. 77-TT we do not beat. JJ-QQ are not turning themselves into bluffs. Why would they?
Basically calling turn folding river is spew. We need to either fold turn or call down. If we put villain on a polar range from the turn, we assume he is betting his 9x straights, which he has a lot, possibly some sets which now are boats/quads. Then he can have some bluffs like club club floats with overs. QJcc/AJcc are perfect examples of some bluffs he can have. His range in it's entirety is bet betting the turn/river whether it's a bluff or value. Personally I think he has too many value combos to warrant calling down in this spot.

and

Fold turn already. you dont need confirmation 2 times that you are beat.

I think this is spot on.
Any 7 and any 9 is a x/f imo.

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