KK: checkback with OP in a 3bet pot? (NL100)
Posted by jonzocker
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jonzocker
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Low Stakes
KK: checkback with OP in a 3bet pot? (NL100)
BN: Player3: 100
SB: Player5: 104.77
BB: Player6: 108.65
UTG: Player8: 100
HJ: Hero: 103
Player8 raises to 3, Hero raises to 9, Player1 folds, Player5 folds, Player6 folds, Player8 calls 6
Villain was very aggressiv over the 260 hands I have on him. He is playing 27/20 and his F2 3bet is 46%.
He x/r the flop 17% and F2 cbet overall 50% (not a big sample)
On the flop I think a 70% Ps cbet is fine.
On the turn I do not give him 44/55/77 anymore I do think he can x/c his flushes and flushdraws and ofc. his OPs:
My thought process was like:
I have a valuebet vs. his OPs and FD, the few 88 + flushes should not be to relevant. I decided to bet small, that he is not able to fold his OPs and FD and make him able to do a mistake with some random hands he wanted to float.
I think this is flawed:
1. His range is much stronger than I expected:
- I have 0% Equity vs his straights and flushes
- Villain has with all his FDs at least 30%
2. When I bet that small he can not do any mistakes:
- Villain needs 23% equity (without river implieds) for a call, as I said he has over 30% with every draw
- He can not have any random hands he is now pushing, because I look weak! He is not x/calling the Flop w JhTh etc ever!
Afterwards I think now, that I have an easy checkback on the turn and have to evaluate the river again.
Do you agree with me? Any other thoughts about the hand?
Thx for your help
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Interesting spot. Like your thought process and agree checkback probably plays best in this case. As it allows him to make a little more mistakes i think.
Btw what program do you use to calculate the equity's ?
Ok thx
The program is called Equilap:
http://www.pokerstrategy.com/poker-tools/equilab-holdem/
You analysis of villains range is somewhat off in my opinion.
QQ-88 i really cannot imagine 99+ check raising the turn here atall, but if he somehow did, then the overpair would certainly contain a club.
If you say 66 is c/r turn, then you have to also assume that he does this with all of the other sets aswell, and even though you think he would have these in his range anymore, since he didnt raise flop, he can still have them and they shouldnt be completely discounted.
However c/r turn here with a set is a pretty poor decision, but none the less some guys will do it regardless, as they are scared of the runout getting even worse, and if your calling here with KK no club then it is actually probably correct for them to make this play.
You give him AK combos,when you said he is aggressive! All of these are likely getting 4bet pre, along with QQ.
Next you say villain has a low fold to 3bet: yet you dont give him any suited connector combos, 89cc, and 78s are still in his range.
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My estimation of his range is 44-88, 98s, 78s, AcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, jcTc, AcQd, AcQs, AcJd, AcJs.
Giving your your hand Vs villains range 21.42% equity.
Villain could be wider here, yes, but all the hands you could include also have decent equity, and given his low fold to 3bet he could have a bunch of hands that hit this board nicely and plays this way.
**************
Conclusion:
Flop: would think about checking back the flop, this board doesn't hit our perceived 3bet range, us makes it a decent spot for villain to apply pressure with C/Raises. However i think we still probably need to bet as our hand needs alot of protection.
Turn: is an extremely bad card to bet with our hand and our overall range for that matter. Checking is far superior in my opinion.
As played i snap fold turn, especially without the club draw outs.
River: once we have checked back turn we can then reavaluate the situation, and you have not narrowed down villains range on the turn as he has not called a bet, therefore he will still have some bluffs in his range. However he is still going to be relatively strong here, and calling is going to be pretty damn close to bad on alot of rivers.
You just have to sigh and realise that you had a great hand pre, but realise the runout is just so bad that it really isnt weak to just give up/play passively.
Thx for the work you put in this hand!
1. My range above is his flop check/calling range and NOT his turn check/raising range. I did not made an estimation about his check/rasingrange at all. Hope we misunderstood us there?You give him AK combos,when you said he is aggressive! All of these are likely getting 4bet pre, along with QQ.
Next
you say villain has a low fold to 3bet: yet you dont give him any
suited connector combos, 89cc, and 78s are still in his range.
Agree with this points a lot!
My estimation of his range is 44-88, 98s, 78s, AcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, jcTc, AcQd, AcQs, AcJd, AcJs.
Giving your your hand Vs villains range 21.42% equity.
Ok you talking here about his check/rasing range right?
- Why do you just give him 2 combos of AQ/AJ and not 3 (because some x/r the flop?) ?
- Why do you not give him QcJc/Tc9c ?
- I am not shure about all 77/55/44 in his range, I do think that most guys check/raise them in generall on the flop. I think it is more realistic to give him around 1/3 of them.
- I am not shure about all 98s combos. I would assume that he is check/rasing or check/folding them sometimes on the flop.
- Not shure how you get 21.42% vs this range I have 13% (on the turn)
Conclusion:
When he check/call the flop his range should like this:
- 2 combos of AcQx and AcJx
- AcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc I do think that QcJc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c should often check/raise the flop
-JJ-88
- 1/3 of his sets => 77
- 66
- 87s
- 1 combo of 98s => 9h8h
This is his flop check/calling range. Given that it should be even more clear that we have a checkback on the turn. As played I absolutely agree with the fold!
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