K7s made 2Pair, Facing c/r on Turn :( !!

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K7s made 2Pair, Facing c/r on Turn :( !!

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $10.00
SB: $12.70
BB: $12.03
UTG: $23.57
MP: $10.93
CO: $10.13 (Hero)
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is CO with 7 K
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BB calls $0.20
Flop ($0.65) 7 K 6
BB checks, Hero bets $0.41, BB calls $0.41
Turn ($1.47) 7 K 6 8
BB checks, Hero bets $0.90, BB raises to $2.70, Hero folds
Final Pot BB wins $3.12
Rake is $0.15

The guy is unknown, I really don't know what he is doing but I expect the pool to be pretty straightforward in this spot which means that he is calling KT KJ KQ and check/raising 9Ts,66,77,88.

There is not really a lot of realistic bluffs, actually the only hand that makes some sense is JT with a backdoor where he decided to make a play on me but that is not a lot of combinations.
To be honest I don't expect a lot of guys to be bluffing on that turn and in this spot I really don't see a hand he could be bluffing with.

The thing with JTs with backdoor is that it's way more likely he is going for an oop float than actually going for this weird c/c,c/r line when I show that much strength.

How do you approach this spot?

10 Comments

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iMRUSh 9 years, 6 months ago

He can have 4 combo T9s 3 combo 88, 1 combo 77, 3 combo 66 for sure if he raise all of them, (and maybe some like 1 kombo K8s, 1 K6s, 1 87s very very rarely) so 11 value combination even if he play all the JTs bacdoors this way what is unlikely itself it's not enough bluff to U can continue. U also have T9s, KK, 77, 66 maybe even 88 sometimes, but that an exploitive asumption that he doesn't bluff, and U had also all the AA, AK, KQ maybe and don't want to fold maybe that much. So you can call once and decide on the river in position or U can start chb more on the turn with AK, KQ, and then U will have an easier fold with that hand maybe.

Limp Limpson 9 years, 6 months ago

its close

in general I'd lean towards calling and calling smaller bets otr, folding vs bigger bets, but I certainly dont think that folding is in any way bad

Samu Patronen 9 years, 6 months ago

I'd call, you beat some hands from his possible value range and you have 4 outs to a fullhouse, and when you hit a fullhouse, you probably end up stacking his straights.

learning 9 years, 6 months ago

further reads on the villain to help analyze the situation more properly? Vpip? c/r stats? call from BB stats?

in game I would feel beat here more often than not

Pokerlogical 9 years, 6 months ago

I play without a hud so I didn't have any information. However I make general assumptions about the player pool and in this spot I thought most standard opponents would only check/raise for value.

nickski444 9 years, 6 months ago

I don't like folding the turn here to his C/R

I'm going to make some assumptions of his range here: Value hands being 66-88 + T9s he would C/R for value which beat us. I also think he can flat things , 87,s 76s in his BB that would check raise this turn for value.

You still have AA, AK and KQ-K9 in your range which you could realistically fire on the turn which he now thinks he get some value out of - he doesn't want to check to you so you can check back rivers so it would be a sensible assumption he would try to get value from this part of your range.

Also he might be tuning things like 55, 65s and 98s into semibluffs against the non 2 pair Kxs' and the AA you still have your range - these hands still have decent equity when called but from his view could be too weak just to call a turn bet and check/fold rivers.

Against the range I feel he could check raise with; 55-88, T9s, 98s, 76s, 65s you have 50% equity. I think it is well worth a call on the turn and see what happens on the river.

mason barrell 9 years, 6 months ago

Yeah it's pretty close.
Given it's a rainbow board, he's going to have a lot fewer bluffs.
Players at this level are so weighted towards value when they raise the turn.
I think Samu's point about still having outs to a FH that will probably stack villain is important, and probably the deciding factor in making this a call.

mason barrell 9 years, 6 months ago

...that, plus the fact that villain could be bluffing and giving up otr some % of the time, and also if he's not that good he might x/r a weaker 2 pair for value.

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