K high OTR with a PSB. 100nl
Posted by WM2K
Posted by
WM2K
posted in
Low Stakes
K high OTR with a PSB. 100nl
3 folds, WM2K raises to $2, SB raises to $8, 1 fold, WM2K calls $6 Flop ($17, 2 players) 
SB bets $9, WM2K calls $9 Turn ($35, 2 players)
SB bets $20, WM2K calls $20 River ($75, 2 players)
SB checks, WM2K ($75.5)?So villain is 3 betting ~10-11% in these positions. Maybe a bit higher vs me but unclear. Pre is ok vs a 10%ish range? Flop and turn have gotta be ok. River though is he ever checking idk QQ-AA? Is this A high often enough and will he fold A high to a jam? Perhaps a bit ambitious.
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I think I would 4b or fold, but flatting seems ok, too.
As played (without real reads) I probably would shove this river. I don't think he would check with JJ+. (more info on villain would be nice though)
I would be quite happy to jam river. I dont think people call A high too often here, especially if theres no history or they dont view you to be out of line alot. I could easily be wrong though.
K high has some sd value and if you are jamming pretty much anything that has missed, I guess he should call with A highs (atleast some %), but not sure again. I dont feel strongly one way or the other with K high here.
About him checking overpairs, I dont think that happens often. I would really like it, if he has like TT though. I think people are tempted to shove many A highs in your spot along with all else thats missed.
Assumption 1. His range is TT+(24 combos), AQ+(28 combos)
Assumption 2. He will fold all non-pairs, call with all pairs.
You have a profitable shove: 28/52 = 54%
Re: Assumption 1: I think he is wider here than AQ+ (maybe 88+, A9s+, AT+, KQ). That lends support for bluffing.
Re: Assumption 2: Is he a believer or a doubter? Shove profitably on believers. It's thinner on doubters.
Against a doubter I think I prefer a flop raise (to 30 - 35) and turn shove because you have two streets to communicate your "overpair" story. If he's a doubter and a hope-er.... I'm not sure. Maybe it's best to check back and give up vs calling stations.
OTF unless I made a slowplay w/ KK+ I don t have any overpairs strong enough to be raising for value. Raising the flop is telling your 8x story which is somewhat unbelievable. Unless you have very specific reasons (you probably almost never have reasons specific enough without big time history) raising any hand OTF is going to be quite bad.
Good points. I should have considered the flop and turn actions more thoughtfully before assigning that range.
"OTF unless I made a slowplay w/ KK+ I don t have any overpairs strong enough to be raising for value. Raising the flop is telling your 8x story which is somewhat unbelievable. Unless you have very specific reasons (you probably almost never have reasons specific enough without big time history) raising any hand OTF is going to be quite bad."
Hmmm... I think this flop is about as good as one can hope for with KJs. Do you think call call check is the best line? It could be, I'm really not sure here.
As for villains hands. I do think he can check the river some times with aces because he may think we had a 3 in our hand and got scared when the 2nd 3 came on the river. I think he could check call with ace highs because he would think that we would check back most of our pairs that we flat 3bets preflop with. I do think villain could have a hand like JTs or random hands that our k high beats enough times to check back the river with confidence.
That being said though I think the only hands we can jam the river for value is 8x and AA. I don t think I call a 3 bet from this tight of a villain with 33. So I have A8s, 98s, 88, say 1 combo of AA. Jamming TT sounds pretty thin as he doesnt have to check JJ+ very often for TT to be too thin considering the amount of A high hands he shows up with is pretty limited. So we have 6 value combos. 1/3 of my betting range should theoretically be bluffs. T9, TJ of spades is enough and ya theres the slim possibility that he has worse then K high here with a busted FD making this not the hand to be bluffing with. Obv it makes more sense to jam with the absolute bottom of our range unless theres issues with blockers.
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