JJ v triple barrel in 3b pot
Posted by DiamondClub
Posted by
DiamondClub
posted in
Low Stakes
JJ v triple barrel in 3b pot
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (5 Players)
BN: $8.32
SB: $27.13
BB: $34.05
UTG: $43.64 (Hero)
CO: $28.76
SB: $27.13
BB: $34.05
UTG: $43.64 (Hero)
CO: $28.76
Villain is 22/17/AF=0.6/3B=0/CBF=0 over 96 hands
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is UTG with
J
J
, , , ,
I think his range is quite strong to begin with and JJ is definitely too strong to 4b fold IP.
Flop
($5.25)
4
3
8
,
I don't think I can be folding on this board. He will bet some FDs, overcards and obviously overpairs against which I loose. I don't think he has many sets in this spot.
Turn
($11.25)
4
3
8
6
,
With the second FD out there, he may be barreling again. QQ+ is also still betting. Since his AF is only 0.6 (Aggression frequency is 23%) I was thinking about folding the turn but decided against it because I felt it would be too tight against most opponents.
River
($23.75)
4
3
8
6
2
,
I don't expect him to triple barrel bluff with his bricked draws so his range is probably just QQ,KK,AA, maybe JJ. I think I have to make a fold here. What are your thoughts ?
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In vilain shoes, I think its a very good play to shove river with all his missed draws because your range is capped in this spot. No draws completed OTR, you cant really have KK, AA so your better hand is QQ-JJ, which you fold anyway to the river bet.
Im not saying I'd call JJ to the triple barel, but Im saying I dont see a good play for you in a spot like this.. In case like this, I always wonder if we should construct our range differently to avoid this situation. At micro's, we can assume that people arent bluffing that much OTR in 3bet pot, so folding isnt exploitable, but if we play vs a good player that understand very well ranges and frequencies, we will get exploited real hard in this spot...
I absolutely agree that at higher stakes I would have to call down here in order not to be exploited. Here, I think it's okay to fold because I don't have a big sample on him and the population tendency is imo to not bluff enough at lower stakes.
I agree with you, but if your plan is to fold when he bets again OTR, why not folding here OTT ? do you think he will bet a lot OTT and check river ? I guess 99-QQ are likely to checks river because there isnt much value in betting them. AA and KK are probably 3rd barelling and missed draw, we arent sure..
With two FDs out there, I would expect him to check the river some time. I also expect him to have some AK combos that double barrel and then check. I feel like this is a line a lot of players will take because they are scared to follow thorugh with a bluff.
I think this is partly villain dependent. How often does villain cbet turn and cbet river, if you have enough stats on him. If he often 2/3 barrels then maybe call him, but if he rarely 2/3 barrels then folding is wiser on the river.
Plus how wide does he 3bet? He could have 88 here, some players like to 3bet from SB rather than call. Does he often 3b from SB?
The problem I see here is that I can't really have that read after less than 100 hands. Therefore I think that I have to go with a solid population read, that I think I have. This read would be that people rarely 3 barrel bluff, i.e. they bet flop and then give up OTT or bet flop & turn and then shut down OTR.
Good, think your reasoning for making a fold is correct.
You only care about defending your hands which can beat a bluff against his postflop bets, so you're really not defending a ton of combos. Assuming the worst-case scenario where you don't have 88 or KK but do have 99-QQ and AK you have 40 combos you care about defending.
To make him indifferent to bluffing with hands worse than AK you need to defend around 2/3rds of that range on each street. Probably you prefer AK combos to your TT-99 combos at first since they have more outs against KK/QQ stuff and are in better shape against AQ/AJ.
So roughly you'd defend 27 combos flop, 18 turn, 12 river, which means you want to be calling all JJ river unless you're calling down with some AK or you are going to overfold. In a situation more favorable, like if we could have AA/KK and 88, JJ could be a fold on the river even if we were protecting our range enough.
As far as whether or not overfolding is a good idea, I couldn't say against this opponent. However I want to point out that if you are fine with overfolding this hand is a bluffcatcher on the flop, turn, and river, so I don't think it'd be unreasonable to just fold flop or turn if you think someone doesn't bluff enough.
He doesnt really care about making him indifferent because from OPs read players at these stakes are calling stations and regs will rarely fire 3 barrels with air.
So everything into consideration, best case scenario is that villain is barreling KK-AA + 4 combos of AKs.
But yeah following that logic wed have to be sure hes firing flop + turn at a much higher frequency to make this line more profitable then just folding flop.
Damn, joinrbs, good points
In my experience at these stakes, a lot of players will become unbalanced ott, so I think calling the flop is fine and then explo folding the turn seems good
where do you get your 2/3 defend on each streets ?
2/3rds was just a rough 1-A calculation, it isn't precise. 1 - (bet / bet+pot) is going to give you what percent you need to defend. On flop 1 - (3 / (3+5.25)) = .6363, so not exactly 2/3rds but close enough. The other streets are more-or-less the same bet:pot ratio so again roughly 2/3rds. You can go overboard working out the exact perfect percent to defend but it's not really necessary here, especially as there are other factors in play.
Example extra factor: stuff like QJs you called with has equity which you'd like to defend, so maybe you want to defend slightly more than 1-A.
That sort of stuff isn't at all easy to work out in its entirety though.
ok I didnt take time to look at numbers, so its the reason why I asked.
It should be noted that Im playing zoom.
You can fold flop, not folding turn is a big mistake, calling river is just insane. QQ is the same hand as JJ here. KK can be folded on the river and 4betting KK preflop here is bad.
Any draws on the board are irrelevant, since we have no reason to assume that villain 3bets wider than KK+ preflop. Sure, its possible, but assuming so is dangerous and its better to play it safe vs guys who have shown no sign of aggressive tendencies so far.
EDIT: missed that this is 5handed. I guess that comments about KK/QQ dont apply then...maybe.
Are you saying this because his stats?
I play a speed version at similar stakes and disagree with this assessment (its like a fist pump with gii kk pre)
Why on earth would you fold on the flop here??? Hero has a strong overpair. If you fold JJ here, what do you call with?
I think folding the flop is too tight. He will still c-bet his AK combos and there are 16 of those compared to 18 combos of QQ+. I agree with joinrbs that we should probably fold the turn here.
I dont think that he has 16 AK combos, we can give him few of them, not every single one.
We cant assume that villain 3bets AK SBvUTG. Some of them do, but assuming so of a guy, who is yet to 3b in 100 hands is a mistake. More likely he 3bets KK+ only.
I prefer to err on a side of caution, since we have 2 outs when we are behind and he bets KK+ and he has 6 (/10, if he is capable of barreling Q) outs with AK+we have no idea how often he barrels. Again, I think its safe to assume that he barrels only KK+ ott, but he could fire worse once in x hands, which reduces EV of our call even further.
Fwiw I dont think he has QQ all that often either.
That said, I did say that we "can" fold flop, not that we have to. I have no idea if the flop call is +ev, it very well might be. I just wouldnt blame anyone for folding.
MajorCrimes: my opinion stems from putting in a lot of volume and seeing a lot of showdowns+his stats.
If he hasn't 3bet once in a hundred hands, im purely calling pre to set mine.
Damn, joinrbs, good points
In my experience at these stakes, a lot of players will becone unbalanced ott, so I think calling the flop is fine and then explo folding the turn seems good
you are putting around 1/2 of your stack on the turn. I think you should either shove or fold and that would be villain dependent.
and calling pre vs a 66/7 wouldn't be a bad option in my opinion. depends on the dynamics too. I think i'll be more inclined to call that min raise.
You must have misread the HH, he was 22/17 so by no means a total fish :).
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