JJ Turn Exploitative call or GTO fold?
Posted by George Archer
Posted by
George Archer
posted in
Low Stakes
JJ Turn Exploitative call or GTO fold?
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (5 Players)
UTG: $23.24
CO: $25.60
BN: $14.91
SB: $28.02
BB: $32.07 (Hero)
CO: $25.60
BN: $14.91
SB: $28.02
BB: $32.07 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is BB with
J
J
, , , , , ,
Isolating the recreational wide passive player (I have value heavy range)
Flop
($6.72)
Q
6
K
,
I'm almost only checking maeginal show-down vs this opponent
Turn
($6.72)
Q
6
K
2
, ,
Given my range here in GTO terms I have to fold this hand however I decided I was probably good more than 20% so I could exploitatively call vs the 1/3 sizing.
River
($11.22)
Q
6
K
2
9
, ,
Final Pot
BN wins $10.72
Rake is $0.50
Rake is $0.50
I made the exploit call here but I'm not sure if he has enough bluffs to exploit call. In these spots where I think it's marginal should I always stick to GTO?
Loading 6 Comments...
A couple of thoughts:
1) I like x-ing flop - cold calling range on button against UTG should be tight and when villain flats your 3-bet even narrower
2) Turn x seems good - against 1/3 pot bet I'm probably folding w/o villain reads. Hand has so little potential to improve. Turn seems to be a decision point in the hand if you call here you are going to have to call most rivers. Also JJ blocks most of his high equity bluffing hands of JTs and AJs. You are essentially hoping villain is turning 77- TT into a bluff or using ATs as a bluff. Again this is readless.
3) The river could be more interesting if villain was deeper. Having JJ we block JT heavily and could theoretically turn this into a x/r bluff, however at current stack size this is just a fold. We now also lose to 99 as well.
Hope this was helpful.
Ooh, Yes great thinking with the c/r bluff on the river if he bets again.
If he is a fish though how often do you expect him to fold KT or KQ on a river x/raise after this action.
I missed the line on button being wide and passive so my notes were more targeted to an unknown opponent.
Risva10 I never expect fish to fold KT or KQ on river. The x/r bluff note was more of a thought against an unknown w/ no reads (and no population reads and requires us getting to the river with this hand and deeper stacks).
I think KQ is a very small part of his range after he checks back the flop and he’ll fold KT a good portion but yeah good point, not the ideal player to c/r the river, would be much higher ev vs a reg
I am going to buck the trend here and advocate a bet on the flop. If the plan is to check/call brick turns, for 1/2 pot, why not bet 1/2 pot on the flop? Why give him the opportunity to improve for free or bluff us with impunity on later streets? He is not going to have AA, KK, QQ, AKs or AKo here, and if he does, congrats on winning our 1/2 pot cbet. This is a board, where if we face resistance, we can just c/f most turns and rivers and obv. fold to a flop raise.
He is going to have a bunch of hands here we would like to fold out and deny equity to. AJ, A10, Ax, J9, J10, 109 (we also block the Jacks in a bunch of these hands if he decides to call). There are also some hands we dominate (TT, 99, 88, 77, etc) that can call one street and also we don't want to give them a free card to improve on us.
We are basically 50/50 vs this range, less than 1/2 his range is middle pr+ and he has TONS of combos that we don't mind folding out and denying them any equity.
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