JJ river decision 10NL

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

JJ river decision 10NL

HJ: $11.76
CO: $13.36
BN: $10.10
SB: $10.57
BB: $14.44 (Hero)
UTG: $11.18
UTG: 25/21/9,3 F23bet: 73 Cbet F T R: 50/67/40 (600 hands)
Preflop ($0.15) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J J
UTG raises to $0.30, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $0.20
Flop ($0.65) 3 9 9 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30
Thought about check/raise, but I just check/called, because I felt He's capable to barrel twice on a board such this, especially IP.
Turn ($1.25) 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.72, Hero calls $0.72
River ($2.69) 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.44, Hero calls $1.44

His sizings are very interesting on any streets.

First I gave him this range:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  23  games     0.000 secs     4,600  games/sec

Board: 3c 9c 9h 7s 8d

Dead:  

equity win tie      pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 00.000%   00.00% 00.00%             0        0.00   { JcJh }

Hand 1: 100.000%   100.00% 00.00%            23        0.00   { KK+, 99-77, T9s, 97s+ }

 Every single hand which forms this range, beats me. But, if I put bluffs into his range such AKo and AKs I get the following result:

Board: 3c 9c 9h 7s 8d

Dead:  

equity win tie      pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 41.026%   41.03% 00.00%            16        0.00   { JcJh }

Hand 1: 58.974%   58.97% 00.00%            23        0.00   { KK+, 99-77, AKs, T9s, 97s+, AKo }

Near this ~26% pot odds I have 41% to win this hand.Does He capable to bluff with this sizes?

5 Comments

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SCS 11 years, 4 months ago

I'd 3bet preflop.

How wide is villain opening? Does he really open 97s from UTG? I'd probably play postflop the same and call the river like you did, since JJ is the top of my range and villain could be betting TT, 9x or barreling a club draw. If I had a read on how wide villain bets 3 streets on dry boards, or what it means when he bets 1/2 psb here, I'd obviously make adjustments.

Alex Geiger 11 years, 4 months ago

He opens 14% from UTG. Why do you 3bet preflop? His fold to 3bet stat 73% and JJ is the top of our preflop calling range as You mentioned above. 

I think He just continues with the following range if We 3bet him.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 135,272,016  games     0.000 secs    27,054,403,200  games/sec

equity win tie      pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 51.314%   50.50% 00.81%      68316330  1097335.00   { JcJh }

Hand 1: 48.686%   47.87% 00.81%      64761016  1097335.00   { 99+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }

I really don't understand why do You think 3betting JJ against UTG opener from BB is fine.
SCS 11 years, 4 months ago

My continuing range from the blinds vs an UTG raise is going to very narrow anyways which is why I'd 3bet JJ. I wouldn't 3 bet QQ+/AK and call with TT, AQ and JJ. Too easy for villain to play against us, especially when we are oop.

Everyday 11 years, 4 months ago

totally agree with alex. 3betting in this spot makes literally no sense.

you simply make him to fold the very weak part of his range and you will get yourself in allot of ugly spots postflop by playing a bloated pot oop vs a strong range when called (he might even flat your 3bet with AA and KK to trap you) and you obv have to fold vs a 4bet. so a 3bet really wont do you anything good.

i think the river is more a ch fold then a ch call vs an utg tipple barrel on these stakes but given the kinda small river bet, the ev between calling and folding might be pretty close anyway.



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