JJ in 3betpot into bluff
Posted by zorgar
Posted by
zorgar
posted in
Low Stakes
JJ in 3betpot into bluff
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
SB: $14.46
BB: $25.55
UTG: $25.00 (Hero)
MP: $26.12
CO: $25.00
BN: $19.25
BB: $25.55
UTG: $25.00 (Hero)
MP: $26.12
CO: $25.00
BN: $19.25
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is UTG with
J
J
, , , ,
Flop
($4.85)
5
5
7
, ,
Turn
($9.47)
5
5
7
8
, ,
River
($18.51)
5
5
7
8
6
,
Final Pot
UTG
lost and shows two pair, Jacks and Fives.
CO wins and shows two pair, Aces and Fives.
CO wins $48.35
Rake is $2.00
CO wins and shows two pair, Aces and Fives.
CO wins $48.35
Rake is $2.00
Generally this runout is either really good for my range or at least really good for my perceived range. In the hand i was wondering if my range can support turning JJ into a bluff at this point. I mean im not blocking bluffs which is probably better for a checkcall but im really wondering if villain ever shoves anything OTR.
Loading 11 Comments...
Is it not too much SD into bluff? Also you can have AdQd+/KdQd jam in bluff.
I mean thats 2 combos, i can realistically have 55-99 (16) 8d9d and 9dTd vs his sizing (even though i would probably call a little less).
When you lead this river you're trying to exploit villain hoping he folds an overpair - imo something people don't like to do in 3bet pots - especially not against such a suspicious line. You also deny his bluffs.
What's your range pre for calling a 3bet here? Maybe something like JJ-77,AKo,AQs-ATs?
I'll try to elaborate:
I expect villain to get to river with AA-QQ, A5s,76s,65s,54s,AdKd,AdQd,AdTd,Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d,KdQd.
If he bluffs all his missed diamonds you have about 25% equity vs range.
If you lead river then all his diamonds go out the window, his calling range becomes AA-QQ,A5s,65s,54s,Ad4d and your equity against that range is close to 0% imo.
When you check river, and he checks back you also win often against hands such as 87s or 76s or TT, or when he gives up so therefore I think check is much better.
I'd x/c half pot bet, x/f if he makes a larger bet.
And fwiw I think that calling 3b oop in those positions with hands such as T9s,98s, 55-66 would be a bit too marginal and probably -ev.
If the villain already shot 2 barrels, with such a move you'll be forcing AKd, AQd, 89d, to fold, and mostly called by QQ-AA.
This! + check fold the river if shoved at NL25 with J of diamonds and without the J diamonds make an explotative fold as well, people usually don't bluff enough in this kind of spot.
he wont have too much bluffs on river on this runout ( i guess most will xback value overcards too )...
so the road for showdown it's easy...
U can choose worst hands to do this.
Donking into an uncapped range on this runout seems like sucicide
I agree. Its completely possible that villain has all 9Ts combos in his range, not to mention overpairs and A5s
Disgusting call from the villain with AA! What the hell he thought you had? It would be a good bluff vs another villain, but I don't think this guy would ever fold anything other than AK and his draws! Did he at least had the Ad?
The donk would have worked against me, but I dont know what your thought process was exactly at that time. you also have to be aware of how often you play a straight or set like this.
Well i was thinking that i must have a pretty clear range advantage OTR with the range i hastily made in my head for the river. Then i tried to figure out how many combos i could bluff and if this jj combo wasnt too high up my range. I also posted the results which i obviously didnt want to do here.
I also didnt think that this particular villain had a well enough constructed 3betting range to cover the board in general. As an afterthought i would probably check in the same spot the next time and take the free ev because i dont think villain is betting this river pretty much ever.
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