JJ facing river bet
Posted by mason barrell
Posted by
mason barrell
posted in
Low Stakes
JJ facing river bet
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (4 Players)
SB: $58.04
BB: $133.70 (Hero)
CO: $86.30
BN: $123.24
BB: $133.70 (Hero)
CO: $86.30
BN: $123.24
Villain is a complete unknown.
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is BB with
J
J
, , ,
Flop
($11.50)
7
Q
5
,
I tend to mix up my strategy with these type of second pair to the board hands. Decided to check back this combo because I hold a club which gives me a bit of protection on club turns.
Turn
($11.50)
7
Q
5
8
,
He bet quite small on the turn, which seemed weird to me. If he had a set, or a strong top pair, I feel like he would bet bigger to protect from the FD on the flop and the now possible straight. That being said, most people would not perceive me to have many FDs after I check back the flop as pfr (not to say I would never check back a FD in this spot).
So if we look at the story he's telling with his bet sizing, he has a hand that doesn't need much protection, and wants to get value. Looks like a pair+draw situation. When he bets so small, I kind of discount his QK-To with a club.
If we think he has a lot of weaker pair+draw hands in his range, what do you guys think about raising turn?? Intending on checking back most rivers.
I didn't think of that play in game, just made what I think was a very profitable call ott.
So if we look at the story he's telling with his bet sizing, he has a hand that doesn't need much protection, and wants to get value. Looks like a pair+draw situation. When he bets so small, I kind of discount his QK-To with a club.
If we think he has a lot of weaker pair+draw hands in his range, what do you guys think about raising turn?? Intending on checking back most rivers.
I didn't think of that play in game, just made what I think was a very profitable call ott.
River
($22.50)
7
Q
5
8
2
,
River is tricky.
Am I wrong to assume he would never play Qx like this? I guess if he thinks I never have 2 pair + given my line, he can be value betting quite thin, given his range advantage.
I guess given my turn read, he basically got there with everything. The problem is, "everything", meaning his 5x and 8x of clubs, is most likely an extremely small number of combos. I wouldn't expect most people to be defending a lot of those hands to a 3 bet, so if that is indeed his value range here, its extremely narrow.
I guess we're going to need to bluff catch some of the time here. Is this a good hand to bluff catch with? I think AKo with either the ace or king of clubs would be a decent candidate, maybe even better than our exact hand?
If we call only with the few combos of top pair+ we get to the river with, we're surely folding too much, no?
Thanks.
Am I wrong to assume he would never play Qx like this? I guess if he thinks I never have 2 pair + given my line, he can be value betting quite thin, given his range advantage.
I guess given my turn read, he basically got there with everything. The problem is, "everything", meaning his 5x and 8x of clubs, is most likely an extremely small number of combos. I wouldn't expect most people to be defending a lot of those hands to a 3 bet, so if that is indeed his value range here, its extremely narrow.
I guess we're going to need to bluff catch some of the time here. Is this a good hand to bluff catch with? I think AKo with either the ace or king of clubs would be a decent candidate, maybe even better than our exact hand?
If we call only with the few combos of top pair+ we get to the river with, we're surely folding too much, no?
Thanks.
Loading 5 Comments...
unfortunately his line looks a lot like a flush. I think i find a fold with that hand. we should probably have some flushes and trips in our range so we can defend this.
very few players at the micros balance big bets otr with proper amount of bluffs to make you indifferent with your bluffcatchers imho, almost everyone severely underbluffs when he bombs the river.
easy fold here.it is almost impossible that he is bluffing
I agree with your reasoning that his value range in this spot, for this sizing is likely trips+. And given he gets to turn with a wide range after flop checks through, you could argue for a call getting a lil better than 2-1.
But...if you were to break down his betting range OTT, there are not many hands that would likely improve their EV by betting. His likely bluffs include T9,J9,JT, which we block exceptionally well. If the turn was 8d, and river 2c, this would be much closer.
+1 to folding!
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