Is this Just an underbluffed spot?
Posted by Ryan
Posted by
Ryan
posted in
Mid Stakes
Is this Just an underbluffed spot?
1 Limp from a recreational player UTG
Hero raise AKo $25 HJ
Folds to limper who calls
Flop 983r
he check, I check
Turn 9
He checks
Pot = $50
I bet 15 as a merge. Basically my impression of pool is they will not really turn stuff into a bluff after checking twice, and likely just lead turn alot, so think there may be alot of stuff like A2, A4o, K4s, QJo, 54s, AJ, AT, A7 etc stuff that will fold to a bet, or maybe cry call one street and check riv. Think there is definitely merit in checking turn as well and may be a better option readless on specific player the more I think about it, because we can likely bluff catch some on river, as well as dominate Ax/Kx hands that may improve on river. Think it's good both ways though, but do lean towards taking the aggressive action, especially if pool will not bluff enough on blank rivers.
He calls the $15
Riv is a 2x
Pot $80
Guy leads $55
Hero?
My impression in general is this is just not a bluff. It's so enticing to want to call when he leads on a blank like this, but at the same time, I think most bluffs like 67 or JT will naturally lead the turn as a bluff and not wait to check call the turn and then all the sudden lead into me. I think the most likely thing happening here is a 9x that got tricky, or a rivered boat. I just fold. Is this pretty accurate?
Is betting turn too thin? I mean he can def have things like 22-77, which is 30 combos, plus some 8x, so lets say 15 combos, for 45. But also can have things like AT, AJ maybe, A7s, A6s, who knows, AQ sometimes, can still have some gutters like QJ/QT, plus all the random pieces of equity that we can get to fold. Information would give us a better idea, but it seems good in general. Likely a mix. Guess it's very important here to consider the villain. Old man coffee type can prob get away with blocking turn more often, but vs younger/middle aged guys who "play poker", but dont have any theoretical background, might be better to check behind with intention of bluff catching some clean rivers. I dont know, typing it all out, I do like blocking just in general against live pool
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I wouldn't make assumptions that hands like 76 or J10 QT etc are going to bet the turn themselves after the flop checks through. People are very happy to check down Q high or j high pretty often even though they know they are going to lose the pot. They don't want to be "embarrassed" and be caught bluffing. I do think it is an under bluffed spot, but I am still calling here on the river after he checks twice and calls turn. I've seen people do this plenty of times with J10 QT online where they miss and know they can't win, so they just stab at the pot hoping you fold ace high. Need to be right here 29% of the time ($55 to win $190). When you think about your range as well, when you check back the flop, what better hands are you going to have in your range that play a X - B - C line?
This isn’t online however, and bluffing frequencies do tend to be lower in live.
In this spot I can have checked back 77 as bluff catchers, probably A8s that checks back. Very few hands. But I’m not trying to call at a proper frequency against a player like this. I’m just thinking about his range and if he is likely bluffing enough or not Based on combinatorics/price
I’m not saying that JT/76/QT always lead turn, just think it naturally happens that way at a higher frequency, so a healthy percentage is filtered from his range after checking twice. Not all of course.
Based on “feel”, I just don’t see people leading rivers as a bluff much. I think what’s more likely to be happening is he called the turn w a 9x/22, and then doesn’t want the river to be checked thru.
Could be wrong and that’s why I posted it, because I def thought it was close. At multiple points in the hand
on the 983-9-2 turn... you don't think people lead 9x 8x as often as JT QT type hands? I wouldn't give much credit for 9x when they check twice and only XC turn as well. Then 8x doesn't make sense to XC and lead the river. Looks more bluffy to me.
Turn bet seems pretty nice to me against a really wide and weak range.
I would call the river. It's very easy for villain to bluff too often on such a dry runout if he is ever inclined to float turn and bluff river.
okay, ive been convinced that calling riv is probably correct. I gave villain 90% of 9x combos+22, and then put QJ, QT, JT, T7s, J7s, 76s, 75s, 65s at a 25% bluff freq, and 65o/76o at a 10% freq, and it that would make it just barely a call. But realistically he probably doesnt have 90% of 9x and might have some random X factor bluffs
90% seems high to me to check twice and not XR turn with 9x.
I agree. I was looking at it from a “worst case scenario”. So if we can call in a worst case scenario, then we can probably call
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