Is this a spew?
Posted by LuckyMer
Posted by LuckyMer posted in Low Stakes
Is this a spew?
Blinds: $0.10/$0.20 (4 Players)
BB: $22.96
CO: $20.30 (Hero)
BN: $24.76
SB: $27.05
CO: $20.30 (Hero)
BN: $24.76
SB: $27.05
Preflop
($0.30)
Hero is CO with
9
K
, ,
Flop
($1.30)
3
T
7
,
Turn
($3.12)
3
T
7
3
, , ,
River
($12.62)
3
T
7
3
3
Villain is a reg who floats me a lot IP. Fold to cbet vs hero 15% IP. Bet when checked to OTT 79% total. WTSD 25. WWSF 49. AF 3.8. Cold call BTN vs CO 7%. Resteal vs hero 20% (so he will 3-bet at least JJ+ maybe TT here). 3-bet BNT vs CO 4%... so maybe not TT.
The plan was to cbet (have some backdoors) and x-raise almost any turn exccept 8-9-K. Also the plan was that villain folds to my x-raise.
So turn-3, he has less sets, a tonn of floats, I x-raise. But here the plan failed. He called. River-3. So he might call my river jam with Tx+ unless he puts me exactly on JJ+. And he certainly folds all missed draws (he has at least flush draws and OESD).
How you feel guys - is jam plus EV?
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