IS THIS A GOOD FOLD RIV

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IS THIS A GOOD FOLD RIV

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $13.34
SB: $3.55
BB: $20.52
UTG: $12.12
MP: $10.00 (Hero)
CO: $13.22
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is MP with J J
UTG raises to $0.24, Hero calls $0.24, 3 folds, BB calls $0.14
Flop ($0.77) 8 2 T
BB checks, UTG bets $0.51, Hero calls $0.51, BB folds
Turn ($1.79) 8 2 T 8
UTG bets $0.94, Hero calls $0.94
River ($3.67) 8 2 T 8 8
UTG bets $3.35, Hero folds
Final Pot UTG wins $3.50
Rake is $0.17

i have few hands on him but he had 6 6 vpip he opened from utg . i 3 bet most of the time jj sometimes i flat.
he easily have qq+ and i dont think he bluffs with me calling twice on such a board

8 Comments

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SnowAndFire 6 years, 3 months ago

I can't tell if he had 6 or 66 VPIP from EP. This makes a huge difference. Please take the time to proof-read your posts as to not cause confusion.

Raise or call OTF are fine. Call OTT is good. River you are at the top of your range. If you are folding this hand he can bluff you with ATC profitably. Call river.

JackPozzi 6 years, 3 months ago

I don't think we should consider the "top of our range" argument against a 6/6 player (or at least pretty tight) on NL10 that opens UTG and 3-barrels a terrible board for his range on a 3-way flop, potting the river. He is more likely to never bluff or "valuff" (betting AT) than to bluff any two cards to exploit our high folding frequency. If he is that smart he should be checking this flop because is a very good flop for the cold-caller. There are some mindless barrellers out there, but there aren't enough of them I think to make that assumptions.

I guess he's almost never bluffing missed draws or betting Tx with that river size wich is clearly underbluffed by the population, so the vast majority of his range is JJ or better.

SnowAndFire 6 years, 3 months ago

If he VPIPs 6% of all hands then it is a clear fold on the turn.

Without the information that he VPIPs 6% then it is a clear call.

If he VPIPs 66% then it is a raise OTF.

I don't think we should consider the "top of our range" argument against a 6/6 player (or at least pretty tight) on NL10 that opens UTG and 3-barrels a terrible board for his range on a 3-way flop, potting the river. He is more likely to never bluff or "valuff" (betting AT) than to bluff any two cards to exploit our high folding frequency

We did not have that information so what was given was advice at equilibrium. Also, if the player VPIPs 6% then he does not open ATs from EP/

JackPozzi 6 years, 3 months ago

I believe that population tendencies + some range reading are a better aproach than looking for equilibrium strategies on many spots like this one, and using balanced strategies on spots that we just don't have additional info. I don't have a big database but I have some filters for river bets and there are many underbluffed "data points" in his line. And every population analysis that I gathered info on (mostly from this site) have almost the same tendencies. So yeah, we do have some info on this hand:

  • Bet size (pot) is underbluffed.
  • EP continuation bet river is underbluffed.
  • He is tight (recreational players bluff rivers more often). I'm not assuming that his VPIP is 6%, he might be running card dead and OP said that the sample size was small.

Then we can add up some info on the specific hand.
- PFR bets 3-way on the flop (bad for us).
- Flop texture is bad for his range, on equilibrium he should be checking with a high frequency. I expect 100% checking from a strong player unless BB is a fish -so he may want to deviate and exploit him with value-. That is bad for us, neutral at best (maybe he doesn't know any of this). But I'd only expect bluffs on this river from good agressive players or fish, and he seems neither.
- His river bet size is not correlated with a wide value betting range, like Tx or JJ. Smells monster to me, although that's a totally subjective opinion.

I think there are enough pieces of evidence that point to an underbluffed range.

SnowAndFire 6 years, 3 months ago

If he VPIPs 6% of all hands then it is a clear fold on the turn.

Without the information that he VPIPs 6% then it is a clear call.

If he VPIPs 66% then it is a raise OTF.

burek2000 6 years, 3 months ago

Basically all has already been said, I would just like to add the importance of sample size here. How many hands did you have on villain? And what were his overall stats VPIP/PFR?

It's easy to happen that 20/18 player has 6/6 stats on EP after 500 hands in which case this would be an easy call down. But easy turn fold if he's a 11/10 nit with 6/6 EP.

Don't base your decisions solely on one stat when your sample size isn't sufficient. Always use stats with a grain of salt.

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