Is this a fistpump-call?
Posted by sunhild
Posted by
sunhild
posted in
Low Stakes
Is this a fistpump-call?
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players)
BN: $126.70
SB: $103.18
BB: $159.71 (Hero)
UTG: $149.65
MP: $131.66
CO: $163.84
SB: $103.18
BB: $159.71 (Hero)
UTG: $149.65
MP: $131.66
CO: $163.84
Preflop
($1.50)
Hero is BB with
3
4
, ,
Flop
($6.00)
4
K
5
,
Turn
($14.58)
4
K
5
3
,
River
($35.46)
4
K
5
3
8
,
How "light" should SB valuebet in this position? KT+? Because I find it hard to find enough good bluffs if we should valuebet KT+. It feels like most of the regs at NL100z doesnt valuebet KT+ here, and if they do, it doesnt feels like they would bluff enough. But maybe im wrong. What is the worst hand you call down with here on the river? And what is the worst hand you raise for value on the river?
Thanks.
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Yeah fistbump call, SB can valuebet something like KJ-KT for 3 streets here.
Fistpump call for sure. You only block value hands and you don't block his bluffs. You beat a bunch of his value bets (Kx-AA) and it's kinda hard for him to have twopairs/sets/straights here imo given KK/33/K3s/K8/88/A2 are all hands that could potentially check flop (some of them will more often than others) and it's not like he have a ton of off suit hands that make better two pairs on this board texture. Same goes with like 76o, he might have it he might not.
Should be a trivial call vs unknown but much closer vs your standard underbluffing 100nl reg.
He`s never gonna have enough bluffs so the question is how many worse combos is he value betting and i think not too many.
I think this is spot on! Maybe I havn't played enough against the player-pool, but I do think they are way underbluffed in situations like this and I dont think many of the regs are going three streets for value with KJ+ here.
But for the sake of the discussion, which are the worst hands we call down with here? Against a good player?
Easy call BvB. He has all AA, AK, KQ(?) and clubs bricked. We also block 44 & 33.
If we start with a 40% calling range pre-flop:
That defends the flop 60% but never raises the flop:
(4x or better for pairs, any gutshot+, any FD, any AcX, some backdoor FDs):
88-44,AcTc,AdTd,Ac9c,Ad9d,Ac8c,Ad8d,Ac7c,Ad7d,Ac6c,Ad6d,A5s-A2s,KTs-K2s,QcTc,QdTd,Qc9c,Qd9d,Qc8c,Qc7c,Qd7d,Qc6c,Qd6d,Q5s-Q4s,Qc3c,Qc2c,Jc9c,Jd9d,Jc8c,Jc7c,Jd7d,Tc8c,Tc7c,9c8c,9c7c,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,AcJd,AcJh,AcJs,AdJc,AhJc,AsJc,AcTd,AcTh,AcTs,AdTc,AhTc,AsTc,Ac9d,Ac9h,Ac9s,Ac8d,Ac8h,Ac8s,Ac7d,Ac7h,Ac7s,Ac6d,Ac6h,Ac6s,A5o-A2o,KJo-K8o,QcJd,QcJh,QcJs,QdJc,QhJc,QsJc,QcTd,QcTh,QcTs,87o,76o
Defends 65% on the turn, raising about 2/3 of the 76 combos on the turn, with some bluffs, we get to the river with this range (141 combos):
77-44,AcTc,Ac9c,Ac8c,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac3c,A2s,KTs-K2s,QcTc,Qc9c,Qc8c,Qc7c,Qc6c,Qd6d,Qc3c,Qc2c,Jc7c,Tc7c,9c7c,86s,7c6c,75s,64s+,54s,Ac6d,Ac6h,Ac6s,Ac5d,Ac5h,Ac5s,Ac4d,Ac4h,Ac4s,Ac3d,Ac3h,Ac3s,A2o,KJo-K8o,7c6d,7c6h,7c6s,7d6c,7h6c,7s6c
Hand type | Combos | Percentage of range | Percentage of range cumulatively
Straight | 23 | 16.3%
Set or two pair | 24 | 17.0% | 33.3%
Kx | 42 | 29.8% | 63.1%
Pairs 3x-8x | 25.5% | 88.7%
A-hi | 5.0% | 93.6%
Q-9-hi | 9 | 6.4% | 100%
Our opponent bets such that we need to defend roughly 60% to prevent ATC bluff from being profitable. (Which seems like an okay guideline to go by). Since just over 60% of our range is Kx, we can defend comfortably by calling Kx or better. However, we have some straight combos that we will be raising, along with bluff raises, so we can actually fold a few Kx and still defend 60%.
What can villain value bet?
To figure it out exactly, we need to take into account that he will get raised by us occasionally. But I'm too lazy to figure that out at the moment. In short, against our defending range of Kx or better, only AA has enough equity to value bet. AK ends up at around 40%.
Now, the range I have constructed always slowplays the flop, mostly slowplays the turn (calling all two pair, sets and A2, and a few 76), which of course makes it very bad for the SB's value betting prospects. This might not be a good strategy.
If we don't slowplay the flop or turn ever, then we of course have to call worse than Kx to defend on this river, making hands like KQ, KJ probably clear value bets for SB. But yeah, "I dunno".
Should we have a raising range on the flop?
Should we raise A2 on the turn?
Thoughts?
Actually, I only put in about 54% defense range on the flop in the above post.
As for the hand in question, most definitely an easy call on the river as anyone will be value betting worse.
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