Out Now
×

is that bluff good or too spewy?

Posted by

Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

is that bluff good or too spewy?

UTG: nuith: $534.05
HJ: 3ddyFelson: $1213.48
CO: VNKAT: $475.96
BN: 2MANYSPLIFF: $804.15
SB: morfondu666: $587.29
BB: Rickpereira7: $400
this is the first session i play against him. He is nitty. By 530 hands he play VPIP : 13.1 PFR : 11.4 3bet : 4.3 Flop cbet : 89
HERO : 5h5d
Flop ($27.98) 2 7 4 (2 Players)
morfondu666 checks, 3ddyFelson bets $18.66, morfondu666 raises to $54, 3ddyFelson calls $35.34
i x/r due to his high cbet frequency to protect my hand and try to take the pot down.
Turn ($135.98) 8 (2 Players)
morfondu666 bets $108, 3ddyFelson calls $108
By the turn i know his calling range on the flop strong and i usually give up atm. But his tight open raise makes me feel he plays his cards face up. Im sure that he never has two pair or straight. So his range is capped to overpairs and sets and if i continue pressure most of the time he is going to fold his overpairs. OP : 36 combs and sets : 9 combos. So on the river i shove ( i copy paste hand from HM2 but everytime i post a hand it appears with missing actions).
River ($351.98) 3 (2 Players)
3ddyFelson calls $413.30
Final Pot
3ddyFelson has 7 7 morfondu666 has 5 5 3ddyFelson wins $1175.58

11 Comments

Loading 11 Comments...

Edichka1 11 years, 10 months ago

Once he calls your raise OTF and calls your turn bet no shame in giving up, there is no hand he lays down to you OTR as played.IMHO 

james 11 years, 10 months ago

I wouldn't be trying too hard to go after 13/11's postflop. They've got such a strong preflop range that you're just running to overpairs and sets a ton rather than weak made hands.

Ugur Ozgur Secılmıs 11 years, 10 months ago

I think its easier to make a nit fold. Let us treat him has AA everytime what he is going to do on a 897 flop?

It is wrong to think "if his range is tight i have low fold equity". It depends on situtation if he raises utg its bad to 3bet him or raising his cbet on KJ4,QJT,AJ5 type of boards and try to push him later streets   would be a bad idea for sure. But other then that there are lots of spots he could fold. 

People usually doesnt 4bet light vs tigh 3bettors in HU games which is wrong. jungleman12 claims that 4betting tighter 3bets would be more profitable in his video. Because that kind of players usually are not capable of 5betting and his 3bets are not merged. It is more polarized. 

James would you fold the flop or later streets in that spot?


Ugur Ozgur Secılmıs 11 years, 10 months ago

good point ! if the board be wetter he had to play fast with his sets usually and  i could rep more hands.    But does it really effects seriously to make this bluff bad ? cuz there are only 9combos of sets. 

I keep thinking about this hand last few days and finally i realized the biggest problem about this hand is   on the river does he have OP in his range? 

flop - its good to x/r vs %90 cbet and on the turn whenver we bet big he usually folds his OP cuz he is        going to understand we try to put all our money in and when he calls and we get to the river i think its      good to give up unimproved. What do u think Lucas?

PGalfondFollower 11 years, 10 months ago

another stats to pay attention is his fold cbet to raise.for this super nit,i would give up turn or river most of the time. from his view,u r simply reping sets or 56,then he wont fold overpairs anyway. besides,ur AF will contribute to his decision too.

GameTheory 11 years, 10 months ago

Ok really quick.

If you assume he continues on the flop with all his sets, overpairs and 56s that is 55 combos:

On the turn his sets and 56s are 16 combos, if you assume he calls 60% (rough estimate for minimum defence frequency) of his range on the turn that leaves him with 33 combos. So then on the river he should call a little below 50% as minimum defence, so roughly all his sets and straights. (Note that of course his range can be wider, he can still float 78s, A5s etc so in reality his range contains much more combos.)

Now you have 55, which blocks 2 of his 56s combos, that effect is really small. You need to remember that he doesn't need a straight to call and you can't really block his sets unless you have two pair or a set yourself.

As others have said, the board is so dry that his range must be very strong. You can't count on him calling most of his overpairs on the turn and fold them on the river. You first two barrels had a lot of fold equity, that usually indicates that your last barrel doesn't.

Ugur Ozgur Secılmıs 11 years, 10 months ago

Thank you so much for your comment. This is the first time i really satisfied with a comment of this hand.  You should be an elite pro in runitonce because you work more then most of the pros. Im going to post hands which are more interesting next time. 

Be the first to add a comment

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy