Is it a convincing line? 100NL 6Max Zoom
Posted by CombatCarl
Posted by
CombatCarl
posted in
Low Stakes
Is it a convincing line? 100NL 6Max Zoom
BN: $178.95
SB: $163.23
BB: $103.08 (Hero)
UTG: $112.58
HJ: $280.51
CO: $116.30
SB: $163.23
BB: $103.08 (Hero)
UTG: $112.58
HJ: $280.51
CO: $116.30
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
Q
A
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $2.50, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $1.50
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $2.50, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $1.50
Flop
($5.50)
3
9
7
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
CO bets $3.50,
Hero calls $3.50
Turn
($12.50)
3
9
7
2
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
CO bets $8.50,
Hero raises to $26
He is 21/18/af1.7/3bet11.5 312 hands
I was trying to represent something super strong.
What do you think?
Loading 4 Comments...
It's tough to say just from a hand history, as a lot depends on game flow. If he's seen you spew a little here and there, he can read this as super weak, but if you played a strong game against him before, I wouldn't be surprised to see him fold.
I wasn't sure about the play, so I ran it through pokerStove.
I gave him a very wide turn calling range of 77+ (without the pairs of aces with hearts), AxKh, AxQh, and KhQh. Against that calling range, you have 28% equity, but that doesn't count implied odds when you get the flush. The problem is that I don't think he would be the flop and turn with Jacks or eights.
If we give him a tighter range, say : 77,99, QhQx, KhQh, KhKx, AxKh, AxQh, you have 27% equity.
Given those calculations, and also given that his turn betting range isn't much wider than his turn calling range, I don't see him fold a lot to your raise. Since he's a little bit more on the tight-ish side, he could very well fold his pairs of aces, but even against that range, you're only a 28% favorite if he calls.
I'd say call the bet if you think you can make up the lost EV with implied odds, and if not, fold.
Thanks for the math. Well, I hate to just call turn. If not CR turn then I'd much rather fold.
Same here, he seems like a solid/tight player, so you're not going to get much implied odds if you hit the river flush, making the fold a better option IMO.
3b pre, call turn. you have showdown value and lots of outs, keep your range as wide as possible
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