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Is it a convincing line? 100NL 6Max Zoom

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Is it a convincing line? 100NL 6Max Zoom

BN: $178.95
SB: $163.23
BB: $103.08 (Hero)
UTG: $112.58
HJ: $280.51
CO: $116.30
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt Q A
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $2.50, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $1.50
Flop ($5.50) 3 9 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50
Turn ($12.50) 3 9 7 2 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $8.50, Hero raises to $26

He is 21/18/af1.7/3bet11.5  312 hands

I was trying to represent something super strong.

What do you think?

4 Comments

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NoHubris 11 years, 1 month ago

It's tough to say just from a hand history, as a lot depends on game flow. If he's seen you spew a little here and there, he can read this as super weak, but if you played a strong game against him before, I wouldn't be surprised to see him fold.

I wasn't sure about the play, so I ran it through pokerStove.

I gave him a very wide turn calling range of 77+ (without the pairs of aces with hearts), AxKh, AxQh, and KhQh. Against that calling range, you have 28% equity, but that doesn't count implied odds when you get the flush. The problem is that I don't think he would be the flop and turn with Jacks or eights.

If we give him a tighter range, say : 77,99, QhQx, KhQh, KhKx, AxKh, AxQh, you have 27% equity.

Given those calculations, and also given that his turn betting range isn't much wider than his turn calling range, I don't see him fold a lot to your raise. Since he's a little bit more on the tight-ish side, he could very well fold his pairs of aces, but even against that range, you're only a 28% favorite if he calls.

I'd say call the bet if you think you can make up the lost EV with implied odds, and if not, fold.

NoHubris 11 years, 1 month ago

Same here, he seems like a solid/tight player, so you're not going to get much implied odds if you hit the river flush, making the fold a better option IMO.

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