interesting math hand

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interesting math hand

Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players) BN: $144.21
SB: $95.53
BB: $109.80 (Hero)
UTG: $121.38
MP: $101.56
CO: $100.91
Preflop ($1.50) Hero is BB with A Q
3 folds, BN raises to $2.20, SB calls $1.70, Hero raises to $11.60, BN raises to $28.00, SB calls $25.80, Hero

SB - 25/16 44 hands 3bet -6% ----- Over SMALL sample tight rec (3bet low and postflop not aggro)
BU - 26/18 TAG RFI 54% from BU. FOLD vs 3bet 49%, not much info vs sqz. 4betting a bit but again sample is low(on 4 betting) and this hand included
BB - aggressive reg

Spend a lot of time thinking about this hand, to me seems like a clear shove considering money behind and possibility of BU bluffing. Question is how much fold equity we need ? and what is our equity(%) vs weak player?

8 Comments

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S0lidSnaKe 6 years, 3 months ago

Hello
As you know EV depends on your equity vs BU calling range and the FE you have vs his 4betting range.
As you can see on this graph and if I've made any mistake, BE points are on the blueline, all above is +ev and all below is -ev. Do you think you will make your opponent fold more than 30%?

Jeff_ 6 years, 3 months ago

Does other player make our play different (sb)? Think he suppose to have quite strongish range ~ around AK,AQ,JJ-99. He doesn't seems like spewmonkey, but we don't care much about him as long as we got above ~30% equity vs his range which we do have.

Bingo 123 6 years, 3 months ago

Id say SB is quite capped so expect a lot of FE, if not we should have good equity vs stackoff range when QQ+,AK 3bets pre.

Main question is does BTN have a 4bet bluff range vs a squeeze in this spot , if yes how wide is it

We prefer to jam PP's 99-JJ as they have better equity and unblock the potential 4b buff range

S0lidSnaKe 6 years, 3 months ago

I forgot something pretty important, SB hasn't fold alrealdy! lol
I'm not sure but he shouldn't have a better hand than JJ, TT, AQs so what he is going to do if hero shoves? Anyway I think it doesn't matter we don't have enough equity and FE to get a +ev shove.
What about calling IP? That sounds not so good...

HawksWin 6 years, 3 months ago

Prefer to call AQo pre vs the open and the call. Squeezing KK+, AK and some connectors like 87s-65s. Makes the decisions super easy facing further preflop aggression and connecters are unlikely to be dominated and are pretty easy to play correctly when the squeeze gets called.

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