Indifference OTR for the CO here
Posted by michaelph23
Posted by
michaelph23
posted in
Low Stakes
Indifference OTR for the CO here
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (4 Players)
BN: $100.00 (Hero)
SB: $100.50
BB: $236.17
CO: $215.16
SB: $100.50
BB: $236.17
CO: $215.16
Preflop
($1.50)
Hero is BN with
9
Q
, , ,
Flop
($19.50)
A
4
J
, ,
Turn
($39.60)
A
4
J
8
,
River
($39.60)
A
4
J
8
T
, ,
I am trying to solve this spot with a few assumptions:
When I shove 2x pot OTR for value it's always KQ or Q9s. Let's assume that I have 16 value combos here [reduced a few spade combos]. When I shove 2x pot and I have 16 combos for value, villain we'll be getting 2:3 on a call which is 40% in EQ with his BC, so we are allowed to bluff 40% of the time which is 10-11 combos. and for us to be indifferent villain has to call about 1/3 of his flop calling range.
What hands villain shoul call here?
I ran the numbers with CREV and everything but KQ shows negative ev, which is hard to imagine because even if we give him all 16 combos of KQ, it is far from the 33% of combos he needs to defend OTR [and we cannot shove Q9s for value anymore].
THX
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