Ideas on river sizing???

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Ideas on river sizing???

Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (4 Players) BN: $201.00
SB: $320.12
BB: $268.17 (Hero)
CO: $39.04
Preflop ($3.00) Hero is BB with K J
CO folds, BN raises to $5.00, SB folds, Hero calls $3.00
Flop ($11.00) J Q 9
Hero checks, BN checks
Turn ($11.00) J Q 9 Q
Hero checks, BN bets $6.00, Hero calls $6.00
River ($23.00) J Q 9 Q 8
Hero checks, BN bets $14.00, Hero raises to $257.17 and is all in, BN folds
Final Pot BB wins $49.75
Rake is $1.25

Preflop not sure why I didn't 3bet this hand, might have had other action going on on another table or something. Generally would 3bet.

I pulled up PTR when I sat down so I had his VPIP/PFR/3bet but that was all I put in my notes,

The reason why I post that information is because I am assuming certain assumptions about his continuation betting ranges and delay continuation betting ranges and also so we know we are not just shoving into a recreational player who either isn't going to fold a T, or checked the nuts on the flop lol.

As far as on the on the river, this looks like one of our ideal bluffing hands, baring 9x, but I think over bluffing this is probably more profitable than folding vs the population. I am assuming they are going to show up w/ AT at some frequency. I think exploitatively a lot of them are just going to end up folding the top of their range because I assume they don't expect me to be shoving too many bluffs here, especially without any information of who I am, being that we had only played 40 hands for all he knows I could be a recreational player.

I'm not sure if that is a good assumption either, but those are my thoughts. If I actually showed up with a house here I don't think I would shove exploitatively so I would get a call vs Tx or AT. Not sure how I would size it with a house either.

As far as this river, I think theoretically if we assume that our opponent almost never has a house here and we can have 88, 99, QJ, Q9, Q8 (if we don't raise the turn), we should just shove here with our bluffs and value, but in practice is this going to be the most plus EV line with a bluff and most plus EV line with value? Especially vs unknowns.

Any thoughts are always appreciated. Thanks.

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