Hello,

How often does the villain make a RFI from HJ? I am not sure you can call from BB with JTo vs HJ in a profitable way, unless the villain has insane RFI stats.

As played flop, I would prefer a X / C to a X / R: when making a X / R, you make all the parts of the villain’s range you are already beating fold: overcards and bluffs; and, once called, the villain’s range becomes strong enough to beat you.

As played turn, prepare yourself to check on the river, since the board gets very connected.

As played river, once you are called, I think you are dead and I am not sure the villain only has overpairs, but can also have Axs which can block some SDs, and even two-pairs and sets if the villain is a passive player. In other words, I do not think this is a good bluff.

I think the best postflop plan here is to X / C once or twice, on the flop and turn (if the turn is not an overcard hitting the villain’s range, of course), then X / F.

Some Flopzilla:

Just a general microstakes advice, never try to bluff opponents off strong hands. You said you put him on an overpair which is never going to fold, therefore just give up. Make sure to go for value when you can and don't spew.

Flop play depends on the opponent. If he c-bets too much, then you can x/r flop and give up unimproved. If he has a lower or normal c-bet frequency, then it's best to just give up on the flop. Most players will check back with weak part of the range on low and/or connected boards and give up too much to your turn bet and you can exploit that while overfolding to their flop c-bets.

As mentioned before, fold preflop since JTo is too weak against HJ range.

Folding preflop is better than calling vs 2.5x, I'd call KTo/QJo before JTo.

Flop is very good for BB (you), he has advantage, and MP should be checking very frequently, probably the best strategy for MP is checking range. The solver probably donks a lot on this flop.

Given that advantage we get to check/raise very frequently vs MP c-bet, specially considering that he's probably c-betting too often here, or maybe he's only c-betting the strong part for protection, I assume that an average NL10 player doesn't know a lot about his range disadvantage here. Two overs with a club may be candidates but you cannot start check/raising all of them unless you're sure that MP defends bad vs check-raises (folding too much & not 3-betting enough).

Your particular combo JxTc is not the best out there I think, I'd prefer to put all the gutshots before (A7s,K7s,97s) plus A4s (oesd), A8s with bdfd... (along with flushdraws and weak pairs+gutshot tpye) And offsuit overcards with bdfd I think should be check-raised a tiny fraction of the time on equilibrium, and I'd prefer something like AcJx, AcTx or KQ that hit more solid outs.

So I prefer to check/fold your combo. Check-calling is -EV. Also I'd like to add that my population stats show that on early position players tend to defend a lot to check-raises, they don't like folding. They fold more frequently on BTN for example, due to the wider ranges. Also his c-betting range might be strong as I said before. But against a foldy profile your line is ok I guess. The problem is that you don't know :-P

As played, on the turn your range advantage increases drastically, and your range is able to bet really frequently, your bluffs probably continue a lot, so with that in mind betting is fine.

After getting called, the problem on the river is if he folds an overpair (if he does just bluff 100%). Micro players tend to have very inelastic calling ranges (they don't fold overpairs), so I'm not really sure of the profitability of bluffing here. But if you do bluff you need to bet bigger IMO, you are betting here straights and some of the best sets for value so you want to size up. Your combo is not very good I think, you don't block value (sets or straights), you block some bluffcatchers (JJ-TT), and block some of his flushdraws. I feel like betting vs the average player is neutral EV at best and most likely -EV, so I check-fold and If I bluff I'd do it with better bluffs, specially pairs that block sets, you're targeting a strong range.

On equilibrium (I checked a similar simulation) MP has to fold some of his overpairs, and even some of his sets vs a pot-sized-bet. Do you think your average opponent does that? Because if he doesn't you're burning money.

The key here is that your line has marginal EV at best vs a micro player with a tight range (they don't fold enough on average), and you should just avoid that lines when playing micros and crush him for value. Vs wider ranges (BB vs BTN) bluff check/raising flops becomes more profitable. If you want to experiment with these lines, use them against the right profiles, you need some stats at least before putting money on the pot!

So:
Fold PF, XF flop.
As played, yeah betting turn is fine, ugly river spot with not enough info and probably not enough fold equity, XF.

Call pre is fine
Flop raise does not make a bit of sense, we have much much better hands to xr with as bluffs higher equity hands.

I don't know how well this play works at NL10. I would probably just not do it before I know that I'm up againts a reg that is capable of folding an overpair. NL10 population might just be too stationy and fish heavy.

Yeah, check/raise stuff like T7, 97, 98, A4, QJcc, TJcc along with your value range here and you should be fine. C/F sucks but is probably the best option here.