I really want to bluffcatch...
Posted by Tom Willetts
Posted by
Tom Willetts
posted in
Low Stakes
I really want to bluffcatch...
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BN: $14.09
SB: $62.58
BB: $25.00 (Hero)
UTG: $23.35
MP: $44.87
CO: $25.08
SB: $62.58
BB: $25.00 (Hero)
UTG: $23.35
MP: $44.87
CO: $25.08
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is BB with
8
K
, ,
Flop
($1.50)
9
8
2
,
Turn
($1.50)
9
8
2
T
, ,
Could bet bigger but want to keep his range wide so I'm happy value betting rivers.
River
($3.22)
9
8
2
T
T
, ,
It seems a strange way for him to play his strong hands, especially as I would expect most Tx and all gutshots to bet the flop mostly so his value range is very thin. Ks might block some bluffs though.
I block T8 and 88, T9 I would expect to bet flop, QJ and 99 seem like strange hands to x/c the turn so I want to discount those, T2o folds pre usually and 22 usually wants to just value bet 3 streets.
I'm near the bottom of my value range so folding can't be exploitable when he overbets but it feels very suspicious.
Loading 4 Comments...
I don't like the value bet on the turn. I think you have a thin value bet on the river if it's checked to you.
When you see this raise, it's not just an overbet, he's put his entire stack into a small pot. He always has it here, I don't think you can ever see a bluff at showdown after this. He's probably not even doing this with QJ here but it's possible. I think it's more likely that he's rivered the super nuts and played his hand passively earlier on, and when you bet he's hoping you have a T and won't be able to lay it down to his monster bet.
betting the flop is a lot better than betting the turn. If i checked the flop, I would just check the turn and bet a blank river/call a bet on a fair number of rivers.
River is just a fold. Even if you believe it to be suspicious, we are essentially uncapped. We can have a straight, a T, and even a boat so he can't really see this as a great spot for something like this. I would just fold this and call with stronger hands. A ten would be really nice or something with a J or Q in it. But like I said I think the hand is misplayed on most streets.
Flop I like the check because I'll bet most bdfd so it's nice to sometimes check, and with this one I can call any turn.
Turn there's plenty of value from worse 8x, 77, 66, Jx, 2x, Ax, any fd that checks twice and most people will usually bet flop with Tx and the few times they check bet turn, and I don't think 9x checks twice often enough to stop the turn vbets being good.
River might be thin but I can have so much missed stuff that he's in a tough spot with any pair and Tx is even more unlikely. Also I don't expect to get x/r very often as most strong hands want to put in money on the super wet turn.
Bet or check flop is both fine.
Turn is a check with hands weaker than Tx or maybe a strong 9x if you get there with those hands.
If you want to bet river again you should size smaller, but I think K8 and A8 are fine hands to bet against some players (probably need a read to make it). River raise looks strange but most players have a very low bluff raise frequency after calling a bet on previous street. I need the likely tilt, spewy or makes too many fancy plays read to make a light call. Blockers are kind of average to call the raise because his likely bluffs are 8x and 2x, and because of the huge size I'd want to only call with the very best bluff-catchers even with a read. Most of your value range is still Tx and I think just picking some Tx to call with is plenty. Also keep in mind that you shouldn't make the call if you think villain is never bluffing enough to make the call +EV. It's not enough that the best case scenario is around 0EV or marginally +EV when a lot of players will have literally no bluffs there, so worst case scenario is super bad.
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