I played it terribad - but what is a good line?
Posted by Colin252
Posted by
Colin252
posted in
Low Stakes
I played it terribad - but what is a good line?
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
BN: $107.42
SB: $50.59
BB: $50.00 (Hero)
UTG: $50.00
MP: $52.70
CO: $51.25
SB: $50.59
BB: $50.00 (Hero)
UTG: $50.00
MP: $52.70
CO: $51.25
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is BB with
Q
Q
, , , , , , ,
Flop
($13.97)
6
T
2
,
Turn
($29.23)
6
T
2
9
, , ,
Grossly overplayed my hand here, maybe tilt or w/e. On looking back, I hate the way I played it, I guess I'd normally call turn assess river, but I don't know how good that is.
What's your line?
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cbet and shove turn too, but I cbet $10 flop and the pot $33,97 and my stack turn will be $33,75, so I open shove and not check-raise. This board is very very draw so I don't like of to give free cards.
My gut response to your line is I don't like what I get called by, but that can be a bias on my side, as I know if he only stacks sets and flushes then I'd have a profitable ATC turn jam. I'm not seeing his range well at all is what that highlights
Toying around with ranges for villain seems to me to be extremely helpful in such spots.
The main things to figure out are for me:
- call3b range MP
- fold to cbet
- bet when checked to (how thin for value, how likely to bet blufs as opposed to checking them)
The first two point towards the profitability, or lack thereof, of a turn bet (for value) and the latter decides, in conjunction with the first two, the profitability of a check/raise turn or check/call down.
Lets assume a nitty player, who probably has a call3b range in this spot of something in the proximity of: AJs+, KQs, AKo, 88-QQ (with some discounts for AKs&QQ which sometimes 4b).
When he isn't sticky postflop, what hands do you expect to get value from by betting OTT after cbetting OTF? QQ, without a club, seems to be valuecutting itself.
Were he to be a guy with a low agression factor, not betting thinly for value and not either bluffing or tturning weak SDV into a bluf, you can comfortably x/f turn.
Were he to be a guy who likes to protection bet very wide for value, to shut down OTR, it is a decent x/c spot.
Would he, Aside from betting wide for value also bet the vast majority of his blufs, x/rAI OTT becomes a decent option.
What I'm trying to say is that in spots where within the population people's strategies and ranges vary wildly, the EV's of the same plays for Hero can also swing from hugely +EV to enormously -EV.
So most important thing to do is to figure out opponent his ranges and tendencies and go from there.
Ok so stabby-ness and sticky-ness are things we need to eval here then. I got zero data on the guy, so he's pretty random, that and he shows down, which I wouldn't have put in his range in the first place.
I guess a random will be sticky compared to the reg pop, and just generally put in more money with weaker holdings likely both betting and calling. I'd say they tend to play draws a bit more passively IP, just wanting to R/E then post oak when they miss @ a higher freq than they should, which probably makes his turn betting range stronger than I'd like in which case calling turn to fold river to an oft river bet doesn't seem very appealing. :-{
Use your experience while constructing assumptions for unknown players. What do they tend to do and what is a strong way to counter that. Just execute that "baseline" strategy until you collectie more specific and/or population data and adjust appropriately henceforth.
So after you see opponent his hand your strategy may or may not prove to be an effective one, in hindsight (!). But that can go both ways (he might be too nitty or too wild for example), so being right or wrong doesn't validate nor discredit your strategy neccessarily at all.
I agree as a baseline your QQ line to be too agressive/spewy, but it can never be THAT horrible or any of the overstatements you used. Likewise, were opponent to calldown to your x/r AI OTT with 88 or whatever, it won't suddenly make you a genius, when you have no specific data to base your play on.
Such opponent dependent situations can only become horrible or amazing when you have gastheren solid reads on the player, which obviously isn't the case in this hand. So don't beat yourself up too much when wrong or pat yourself on the back when right.
Probably, as played OTF, I would check/decide OTT and most likely call, esp. To smaller bets, which will be protection bets more often then bigger sizings in my experience. And versus the protection bets you have Great equity, while your equity sucks versus the strong valuerange. Most people check back river with those protection bets, so OTR I most likely x/f.
Yeah that all makes sense. good point re what he shows down, it's just one hand after all.
Re likely best line, I've got a thought error I'm aware of where I struggle "in game" to see how hard I am exploiting a certainrange by taking a weak line - but of course if that range is overly strong, then that is exactly what folding does - and I need to be more aware of that "in the heat of battle" as it were.
Thanks for taking the time to respond, appreciate it.
I like your thought-process in the last post. Strive for rationality in game and work "outgame" on actually becoming more rational by improving your knowledge of spots and ranges. :) GL!
I would CB larger intending to shove OTT. (?)
The problem is that most of the AcKx would X/Jam OTF, maybe KK/AA with no FD aswell.
F**k, that really is a bad spot.
What is his calling range? TT, JJc, AKcc, AQcc. (he slowplays all the monsters)
I wanna know from more experienced players, is X'ing back the flop too bad? Maybe call the non-club/non-A/K turn if he bets, then X back or fold any river bet? Doing this we are allowing his equity with medium pp with club draw, AcXx hands.
I'm really confusing aswell hahahahaha.
When we are oop in this scenario we expects more floats, then we need to be aggressive. But ip I think most decent V will only continues with monster/good equity/blockers hands.
I actually would have no problem to work through this hand.
So on the flop we have an overpair and I'm fine with betting to protect our equity.
Then on the turn we still have an overpair but this guy bets so small on the turn this has to be a flush^^.
I try to pay real close attention to betsizing so check/raising becomes a big no-no. I'm on board with check/call turn and check/fold. But imo check/fold turn is better because he can't really have that many draws given the board and the preflop action.
And the draws that he might have he may raise on the flop like AcKx...
so villain had AQcc or AJcc? it looks like it :/
A7cc IIRC
I would:
Size down on CB, we push a ton of equity and I would be CBing my range with a smaller sizing. Both ranges should be tight and linear except IP should be missing AA/KK often and AK/QQ some of the times. I would assume villain is a reg until he showed me other wise.
OTT id check range , hoping for a check back.
As for my turn check range, after betting range OTF we will take a equity loss on allot of turns because his range is filtering down to Tx+ FD's and ours is staying intact.
Id imagine after you bomb flop his range is going to contract considerably and be that much stronger.
Nice one! Sounds like you've been busy with Pio solver lately.
I play the same strategy on most low flops and on turns where your overpairs dip bellow around 75% equity OTT.
2 hour a day :D try t o anyway
& allot of Nick Howard videos
You say that if we CB lower (~1/3pot), we maintain a wider V range. Then X/C safe turns and X/F any river.
CB'ting more than 1/2 would put V in a stronger range, inflating the pot and putting ourselves in a bad spot when we X and V bets ott?
CB1/3 / fold otf seems fine aswell?
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