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I have no idea if I'm over folding this spot

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

I have no idea if I'm over folding this spot

14 Comments

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RunItTw1ce 4 years, 1 month ago

Part of me feels it's never a bluff here when they raise the river. Other part of me feels what hands 3 bet preflop that make a flush on this river that doesn't bet the flop? If he had KTh, KJh, AQh, KQh, AJh, AKh. they all bet the flop right? Hindsight feels like I got bluffed, but pattern recognition usually shows they have the flush.

RoleTide 4 years, 1 month ago

If he had KTh, KJh, AQh, KQh, AJh, AKh. they all bet the flop right?

No...I wouldn't just assume this without any read. What are his stats like? This line is a flush 8/10 at this stake. It is a clear call higher up or against a more aggro player that is bluffing a lot with blockers.

RaoulFlush 4 years, 1 month ago

Esp. AJhh/AKhh is a somewhat decently often check-back OTF, right?
He btw. polarized his range by 3betting pre (even though the range is linear; basically any kind of raise is somewhat polarizing between fold/raise).
So if a polarized range checks back a board that favors its range, i rarely expect bluffs on later streets: Usually they would be starting to bluff OTF i guess.

RunItTw1ce 4 years, 1 month ago

Am I over cbetting? If I was the btn I would likely be betting most of my 3 bet range for 1\3 here, especially with gutter + bdfd. Maybe check some AhTh hands. But most QX+ and gutter+ I would bet.

HawksWin 4 years, 1 month ago

This is another one of the exploit spots where you can downbet to extract from a wider range and fold when they get crazy (I think the size is perfectly fine). We have to also realize that 98s get there. Sure he should probably c bet something like that but they miss c bets all the time. Turn is double gutted and river isn't all that scary for any combo of 98s.

SickDjoker 4 years, 1 month ago

Hear somewhere - that we sometimes we have to bluffcatch the set, but i am not quite sure.

RunItTw1ce 4 years, 1 month ago

Just depends how much you think pool spazzes vs block bets. I don't think he should have many flushes in range, so leaning towards a call as I expect most BDFD to bet the flop. Just an assumption though. Could be wrong, but they are cbetting around 68% so I would assume so.

MartiniTSW 4 years, 1 month ago

I am folding . It is hard to call without reads because like other said it is often flush . And i prefer bet bigger on river .

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