HUNL 1k on party - Riverspot with trips on dry board facing overbet
Posted by Matty_G
Posted by
Matty_G
posted in
High Stakes
HUNL 1k on party - Riverspot with trips on dry board facing overbet
BB: $1148.40 (Hero)
SB: $1571.25
SB: $1571.25
Preflop
($15.00)
(2 Players)
Hero was dealt
J
8
SB raises to $15, Hero calls $10
SB raises to $15, Hero calls $10
Flop
($40.00)
2
8
3
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
SB bets $29.25,
Hero calls $29.25
Turn
($98.50)
8
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
SB bets $80,
Hero calls $80
River
($258.50)
5
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
SB bets $420
edit: Villian is a reg. I joined his tables at party.
Loading 16 Comments...
He could have an eight himself, but with two on the board and one in your hand there is only a limited number of combos left. Which leaves him with 22, 33, some 8's and the occasional 55, 99+. But would he overbet those? People have a hard time balancing overbets. I call.
I'm not sure if I can ever fold in a spot like this, so I guess it's just wp by him?
EV(fold) = 0
EV(call) = profit * p + loss* (1- p) where p = probability we win
= 285 p - 420 ( 1- p ) = 678p - 420
so the p_breakeven is 62%. So the decision should be if p > 62%, then we call.
now, let's breakdown what this p should roughly be in his case:
p =
if range a) with all boats, all 8x, and AA, KK, QQ and JJ: 62% (tight)
if range b) with range in a), but removing QQ and JJ: 54% (super tight)
if range c) with all boats, all 8x, and all pocket pairs above 5, A5 + random air: 76%++ (might be more reasonable)
where do you think his range is? i would think it is a range wider than a), because in the overall game sense, if it wasn't that wide then you'd be making a lot of profit just folding when he bets turns/rivers and maybe even leading out a higher than usual % of the time.
The problem is that I really cant find a hand he is bluffing with here and I don't see him overbetting worse (AA etc) in this spot since it clearly won't be called by worse when I'm considering folding trips.
On the turn his range is probably your c) range, so that call is clearly profitable, but once he bombs the river I think it is probably a fold, even though I can't since we are at the top of our range. However, I guess there is some merit to making an exploitative fold since he seems so straight forward and therefore has it a ton here?
Your hand looks like an 8. Especially because you play alot more hands with an 8 in them, than 2s and 3s. When your opponents sees that your hand could easily be trips, he opts to overbet with absolutely no bluff card help. 99-AA would never do this on the river with no dynamic. This a polarized bet and since it's unlikely he's bluffing, you're looking at 22, 33, 55, 8X, 46 and maybe A4. I think 22, 33 and K8/A8 should be the most common hands here, since the goal of his play is to get max value out of 8X. But since you have a J kicker, that actually makes a difference. If you had K8 or A8, I'd snap this, but with J8, its kinda close because I think it's very possible that he could be doing this with 89.
Personally I would only overbet this for value with K8+. I agree that 89 would be a bad candidate for this play, but we can't necessarily assume our opponent thinks that way. I think we have to include all 8X, and weight it slightly towards the higher kickers. So I would agree that with no history, drawing the line on your calling range of K8 should be safe.
I think that A4 is extremely unlikely, then 46 and 55 being unlikely, and honestly 22 and 33 being the most likely. If 8X and 22 and 33 making up the entire range to simplify things (I think he'll have A4 as much as a bluff here), then we are in better shape. I dont use poker stove, but a quick rough estimate shows five 8s lower than ours (84, 86, 87, 89, 8T), and 3 higher (Q8, K8, A8) , (4 combos each) and 6 combos of underfulls (22, 33) and three of 85. If the opponent folds any btns, we'll only have to add 83hh and 82ss. We lose to 23 combos but beat 20. Despite this, I think we'll see the top 3 eights, a lot more than the bottom five so I think this is gonna be a fold on further thought. And like you said, when we add in 55 and 46, things start to get ugly for us (16 combos of 46 hurts the calc alot). I agree with you that we should fold this, this is just how I thought it may be close...
quadrangemerge
Those ranges might be off here. The more I think about it the more I doubt that he is playing pocket pairs that dont make boats this way. Doesnt make much sense unless he is turning them into bluffs to get hero off of 8´s, which is as tough as we´re discussing it.
This means we´re looking at 8´s (and I dont even think all 8´s), boats and some A4 and 46 combos + random air.
We still have to be right ~62,69% of the time (calling 420 to win the 670 in the pot). I didnt stove it, but seems closer to a fold now even though I feel kinda sick about it.
That being said, early street dynamics can drastically alter ranges on the river here. For example, if he's CBing a ton and you're not folding much to them on any street, that sets up a dynamic for him to VB rivers much thinner as well as bluff wider with less suspecting hands (ie. he has more potential bluff combos). Also, if he's shown a tendency to opt for over-bets in a lot of different situations, that also means he'll likely be a lot wider for value in spots like this. If either of these things are true, we're swinging back to calling this.
someone mentioned, that we are unlikely to have 3x and 2x which is a very good point and put a lot more 8x in our perceived range. so it might actually be a fold
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