HU 2bb pot, facing an AI from a fish with two pair

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HU 2bb pot, facing an AI from a fish with two pair

Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (3 Players) BN: $5.10
SB: $4.33
BB: $5.47 (Hero)
Preflop ($0.07) Hero is BB with 6 3
BN folds, SB calls $0.03, Hero checks
Flop ($0.10) 3 9 6
SB bets $4.28 and is all in

Knowing that this player is a fish, have not seen him doing this kind of stuff, but from how he has been playing I would say that he could be doing this with TPTK or an overpair. Was not giving him much credit at the table.
Unfortunately, tables are anonymous and therefore hud is not allowed:/
What is actually really interesting question is: would he do this with like a 99 or 96 blocking our calling range you know? I can imagine having him 33,66,63 trying to get called by 9x or even doing this with an overpair for the same reason - get called by 9x.
He was also pretty active, so he is not the type of fish playing 30/2 or sth like that.

Not sure really and I know that its really player dependent decision.. maybe I would approach it by dividing him into 3 categories. First that he is doing this only with twopair+ and sets. Then we have 15% equity.
In the second scenario, he is the guy who is doing this with overpairs (if completed preflop) and even with hands like K9s+. Also he has some straight draws because he loves to bluff with them and then show us his hand. Vs that range we have 65% (at best).
3.case is just the mix of both, he is able to shove a bluff and even an overpair, but really not that often. Vs that range without 99,96s and 93o with KK,AA,54s, and all other twopairs, we do have 51%.

So to summarize that estimation: When combining all 3 guesses together and averaging them, we do not have right odds to call. Even if the 3rd case would precise, we need to take the rake into a consideration and therefore 51% equity is more likely to be a break even call. To add, I would say that even the 3rd scenario is a bit too optimistic. Therefore by calling this flop I am just attracting the variance as well as tilt issues.
Need to literally see one hand played like this with a 9x in order to justify calling here.

Thoughts?:)
What would be the bottom of your calling range?

11 Comments

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Shaun Pauwels 4 years, 9 months ago

What is actually really interesting question is: would he do this with like a 99 or 96 blocking our calling range you know?

You have to keep in mind that this is a fish. You have him tagged as a fish, he's shortstacked, limps SB at high rake environment, does a super fishy move on the flop.
Would you consider a fish thinking about blockers in this way? He sees his hand and does whatever fish does.

I would snap call this. I'm calling all two pair+.

MatoStar 4 years, 9 months ago

Hmm really?
He has to be doing this with hands like Q9 to justify a call. Or do you think that he is not doing this with sets/twopairs? Either one of these assumptions has to be true or he has to be spewy bluffing enough

About blockers it's just my observation that I haven't seen AI from a fish with being totally nutted on a dry flop somewhat often enough.

Shaun Pauwels 4 years, 9 months ago

He likely considers AA and overpairs he slowplayed as nutted as well.

These all in moves are generally something. But not that good to make it worth an insane overbet. If you want you can just defend 33 and 66 and be fine. It's just that these fish tend to lose their stack rather fast. And I would want the person getting the stack to be me!

RaoulFlush 4 years, 9 months ago

I guess if someone 43x(!) the pot, im basically folding everything but the nuts. These odds are ridiculous bad.

BigFiszh 4 years, 9 months ago

I tend to agree. Against a bunch of hands (overpairs, str8 draws etc.) we're "only" 2/3 favorite. Add the chance that fish plays hands like 93 and such and we're basically down to 60%. It's such an insane high variance play for a "small net win". 93 would be a different beast (obv.).

RaoulFlush 4 years, 8 months ago

Funfact: We need 97,3% Equity for calling here.
That said: In theorie we should be folding Topset i guess
vs AA: 91,4%
vs any set/2p combo we finally reach about 98% (crying call :) )
Kind of absurd but i guess the more nonnutted hands Villain has, the more we are (in theorie) forced to fold the nuts here due to blocking effects.

Kind of Loling atm :)

Shaun Pauwels 4 years, 8 months ago

Funfact: We need 97,3% Equity for calling here.

This can't be right. If in an empty pot someone jams all in. We only need 50.1% to call and be profitable.

RaoulFlush 4 years, 8 months ago

0.1/4.3=0,0232558139534884‬
e.g. about 100%-2.3%= 97,7 Equity even, that we need here. Whats my mistake?
Hopefully you are right. My thoughts sound totally absurd....

Edit:
Sorry guys, mistake found. Totally forgot that hero has to call first :)
so we need about 49.4% here....gosh....shouldnt be thinking about math this early!

Shaun Pauwels 4 years, 8 months ago

What is this calculation? potsize/betsize = ??? Equity needed somehow?

Equity needed is betsize/(potsize + (betsizex2)).
Or 4.3/(0.1+(4.3x2)) = 49.43%
We are investing 4.3 to play a pot of 8.7. As you can see this is close to 50% that we need to win.

If you want to calculate MDF it's 1-A or he's risking 4.3 to win 0.1 so he needs this to work 4.3/4.3+0.1 or 97.73%. So we need to call 2.27% off the time at least.

crazyriver 4 years, 8 months ago

I saw middle pair, overpair and some draws vs this action (open ship on the flop with SPR>1). I'm calling with decent TP+, like Q9+ or K9+.

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