How wide can we overcall in the SB here?
Posted by Ryan
Posted by Ryan posted in Mid Stakes
How wide can we overcall in the SB here?
Live 1-3
Splashy short stack Asian man limps UTG w $70
unknown spazz aggressive opens to $10 UTG+1 w $240
2 calls behind him from MP/LP players who are weak wtih 100bb stacks
Hero has A5ss in the SB w 100bb. I look left and BB is an older recreational player who is looking like he is going to call. The Asian man looks like he will call as well.
So, my question is this. In the case where it is unlikely we will get squeezed off our equity preflop, how wide can we call here being stone cold OOP and also having a low SPR? If I didn't have info that the SS guy was going to call, I would snap fold here because it's just too bad when we call and don't get to see a flop. But even here, if we call, it is likely to go 5-6 way, putting $53 in the pot on the flop, in a 6 way pot, meaning the SPR is going to be a bit less than 5 to 1 with the PFR, and 6 to 1 with the 100bb players. Our A is basically never good, because if we face any reasonable bet we prob just have to fold it, and our 5 is obv not good either. So we are banking on hitting a FD in a situation with a low SPR, so our fold equity may be a bit compromised. With extra players involved as well, alot of times our NFD will not be as pure because of the liklihood of more strong ranges when big bets do begin to go in. I definitely would not want to call hands like 76s, 98s, T9s even here because of how low they are and the problem of domination and unclean outs. But maybe with Axs, we just draw to the nuts so well it is still a call, because we don't have to fast play every NFD and maybe can overcall getting good odds post flop. but it does seem quite dicey to me. and when I think about a hand like KTs, or QTs, they really don't seem that appealing TBH.
Am I completely off base and crazy for thinking that maybe folding Axs here is correct?
Writing this out has me thinking that actually defending something like pockets, Axs, and then like AJs, KQs, KJs, QJs, JTs, is about all we want to have here. And maybe KQs/AJs could be squeezed sometimes, although I think id rather use AQo/AQs to squeeze here and be pretty damn snug.
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