How to handle a min. X-Raise on the turn against a Tight, potentially aggressive player when I always have the odds, but we could be dead? MW | 3Bet Pot | BU VS SB | 10 NL | Ignition
Posted by PoeticEconomist
Posted by
PoeticEconomist
posted in
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How to handle a min. X-Raise on the turn against a Tight, potentially aggressive player when I always have the odds, but we could be dead? MW | 3Bet Pot | BU VS SB | 10 NL | Ignition
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
BN: $14.99 (Hero)
SB: $9.90
BB: $9.55
UTG: $85.18
MP: $10.19
CO: $11.21
SB: $9.90
BB: $9.55
UTG: $85.18
MP: $10.19
CO: $11.21
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is BN with
J
Q
, , , , ,
65 Hands on SB. VPIP/PFR: 19/16 | 3B: 9.5% | flop c-bet: 67% | Fold c-bet: 0%
Flop
($3.90)
Q
T
7
, , , ,
The BB doesn't c-bet. Keeping in mind I need to have a high threshold for betting for MW pots, and we aren't betting all the time, I think we should bet infrequently and small MW on this somewhat dry flop that favors us.
Turn
($6.34)
Q
T
7
4
, ,
In-game, I really didn't know what to do. The Pot is inflated compared to a SRP, and although I'm getting 15% pot odds, it's also 20 more BBs to call that may not be worth it against value heavy X-Raise range, when the river will infrequently help me.
The hands I have the SB raising with are hands that have me crushed:
Value (15.15%):
7d7s, 7d7c, 7s7c, QhTh, QsTs
Potential Bluffs (84.85%):
K9s, 98s, KdJd, KhJh, KcJc, Jd9d, Jh9h, Jc9c, KdJh, KdJc, KhJd, KhJc, KsJd, KsJh, KsJc, KcJd, KcJh
I think it's possible that SB floated the flop with some draws such as gutshots, but perhaps when we consider that he would have to float to get to this point in the turn, we should consider that he has these bluffs at a much lower frequency -> this is an under bluffed spot.
The pot odds are only 15%, but with an inflated Pot (MW on flop & 3Bet Pot), how should we handle this type of decision when if we call, there is only going to be 34 BBs behind?
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I think the pools are going to play TT/AQs/AQo this way preflop, therefore I think you need to expand your value range. I also think, since BB's squeeze way to tightly, that traps like AA/KK are sometimes going to be in his range.
Hey HawksWin! Would you mind explaining that again in a different way, as I don't follow?
"I think the pools are going to play TT/AQs/AQo this way preflop, therefore I think you need to expand your value range."
If SB is going to include TT/AQs/AQo and has these on the turn, then that would increase his value holdings.
Why would we expand our value range in this case? Wouldn't we want to decrease our value range, and thus play QJ as a check-call or check-fold?
I think you may have meant "then that would increase his (SB's) value range."
"I also think, since BB's squeeze way to tightly, that traps like AA/KK are sometimes going to be in his range."
What would you say is in BB's range that would then fold this flop? How would that impact our decision on the turn against SB?
PoeticEconomist Yes, I am sorry that sounded vague. I think his range is going to have hands like TT/AQs/AQo that are in his continue range preflop, therefore I think he has more value combos in his range than you have in your simulation of 77 and QT that are raising. There, where you had 5 value combos (77 and QTs), I think he is also going to play TT/AQ this way preflop. I think he is not going to re-open the betting preflop.
I think BB squeeze range is very tight here. (My pool is just under 5%). Therefore, I think SB can also have a few combos of AA/KK here (he has some AK preflop too, but I don't think he plays AK this way. They do trap this spot in SB sometimes (honestly, I know they do based on the data).
im calling min raise and calling any non A or K river because i cant exploitatively fold vs turn min raise with this hand and i am also not exploit fold river getting 6:1 odds
ra al ghul trained me in the art of gto so i aint leaving this hand
It’s a strange line from villain that is completely polarised. I would be calling and and checking back most rivers. I would probably call a reasonable river bet on any card other than A or club.
I think their range on the turn has all the strong value hands available but also a lot of Ax club draws most likely Ac7c. This would make most sense with the play.
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