How to Count Implied odds OTT
Posted by luba
Posted by
luba
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Mid Stakes
How to Count Implied odds OTT
We are in the situation where villain bets pot ott and I have a draw.
He bets 100 into 100 pot.
My odds are 100 / 300 = 33%
If I call we both will have another 200 behind.
I have 10 outs, which is roughly 23% equity.
Lets assume that If I hit I will always get paid.
The original was 100 / 300,
now its 100 / (300+ 0.23% x 200)
100 / (300 + 46)
100 / 346 = 29%
so my odds with implieds are 29%
is this correct
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Nope. :) Assuming you're drawing to the nuts (with any out, so no reverse implieds), the odds are:
100 / 500 = 20%
Reason being that you either lose your invest of 100 or win 500 - nothing in between. So you call 100 to win 500, means you need odds of 20%. While you instead get 23%, you are +EV.
Let it check with the EV formula:
EV = (0.23 * (300 + 200)) - (0.77 * 100) = +38
Or in other words:
EV = (0.23 * 600) - 100 = +38
Hope that helps?
BigFiszh
Solid Reply BigFiszh
I was looking for some ways make it easier to account for implied odds in game, any tips for that?
What I got so far is to simply sum into the Pot Odds calculation the bet we expect to get the times we hit our equity
That would be exactly what you did in "100/500 = 20%", That giving us the equity need to a b.e call.
Prior to that I was using some other ways to get at it, like dividing the bet we face by our equity minus the pot after our call
In this situation it would be:
100/0.2 = 500
500 - 300 = 200
This method give us the amount we need to win on future streets to make our call b.e. with our actual equity, instead of giving us the equity required to call given what we expect to happen on future streets. Although this method is more precise and complete it seems like, it is also way more difficult and unpractical to apply in game, given many times we ll have 23% equity, or 9% equity and it makes the process of estimating the implied more energy draining and difficult. And even after coming up to the chips we need to get in order to have a 0ev call, we still have to compare that with the villain`s stack sizes and tendencies.
So it seems that to apply roughly in game it is more practical to just go straight to estimating how much we expect to get on next streets and make the odds based on that and then compare to our actual equity.
I figure this is kind of an important matter since it is quite common to have a mediocre drawing equity and facing aggression and kind of go into auto pilot (snap folding gut shots, auto calling fds or oesd just because that would be "std") and not really thinking properly about the actual situation.
I just take the ratio and subtract then multiply by betsize
Example
We face half pot size bet 1:4
We have FD 1:5.5
5.5-4=1.5
1.5xbet size= amount I need to expect to make
Thanks ryanspicer , unfortunately I conditioned my mind to see it as a fraction from the whole pot and not as ratio. Maybe I can do that this way too:
We face 0.5p = 25%
We have fd = 19%
19% - 25% = -6%
Nahhh doesn`t seem to work very well.
Maybe if it is way easier of a method indeed it is worth it to start gradually getting used to see it as ratios too.
Btw, just to be sure, the 1.5x bet size relates to the prior street sizing, right? In this case if we called 100$ bet, we need to get minimum of $150 on the river to b,e?
For instance If we had a gutshot instead, it would be roughly 10 - 4 = 6x the bet, minimum of 600$ bet on the river?
If this 2 are correct then it is quite simple to make a chart with the minimum we have to get based on our equity facing multiple bet sizes...
I wonder if your EV-calc is correct BigFiszh
EV
= won - investment
= 0.23 ( current pot + contribution from villain + investment) - 1 x investment
= 0.23 ( 100 + 300 + 100 ) - 100
= 15
You only lose your investment the times you lose the pot, which is determined by villain`s equity. So you have to assign that to the math just as Bigfiszh did
You also win less if you do it that way. having 23% equity when you need 20% and winning 38$ form a 500 total pot made no sense to me thats why I did an EV check. Now winning 15 of 500 with a 3% extra equity makes perfect sense :)
According the formula used by BigFish having 20% equity would give a possitive EV which is for sure incorrect.
EV = 0.2 (300+200) - 0.8*100 = + 20
@akissv7 you are right! I misread the pot size and remaining stacks! It's 100 in the pot and Villain has 300 left (before betting first). That way, we invest 100 to win 400 (pot + stack), not 500 (as I mistakenly read).
So, now, we have two alternative formulas at hand:
1) EV = 0.23 (100 + 300 + 100) - 100 = 15
2) EV = (0.23 * (100 + 300)) + (0.77 * -100) = 15
Thanks for having checked that!
BigFiszh
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