How much history / dynamic to attack capped ranges?
Posted by John Mackay
Posted by
John Mackay
posted in
Low Stakes
How much history / dynamic to attack capped ranges?
HJ: $103.55 (Hero)
CO: $104.15
BN: $64.20
SB: $65.70
BB: $25.50
UTG: $32.80
CO: $104.15
BN: $64.20
SB: $65.70
BB: $25.50
UTG: $32.80
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
J
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.50, CO folds, BN calls $1.50, SB folds, BB folds
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.50, CO folds, BN calls $1.50, SB folds, BB folds
Flop
($3.75)
J
5
4
(2 Players)
Hero bets $2.50,
BN calls $2.50
Turn
($8.75)
J
5
4
T
(2 Players)
Hero bets $6.35,
BN calls $6.35
River
($21.45)
J
5
4
T
A
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BN bets $10.50,
Hero raises to $93.20, and is all in,
BN folds
Final Pot
Hero
wins $40.35
So i am looking to analyse a few spots that occur and work out whether i am being to optimistic with my bluffs. Villain in this hand has a wide call otb, and a reasonably standard fold to C-bet. For this reason (plus i have a blocker) its pretty hard for him to show up with KQ here. Only way would be a float by KQdd or KQss, which i don't expect him to do all the time. Also his 1/2PSB otr is not the standard size that unbalanced low stakes fish take with the nuts when checked to. Now i expect him to have AJ here a decent amount, and its gonna be tough to make him fold that, which could be the thing against this play imo. Kinda expect him to raise sets by the turn given the number of draws and our stack depth.
What kinda stats / tendencies would you be looking for when making this kind of river plan for a villain???
Loading 12 Comments...
Looks like a good choice of spot/hand/opponent bet size to attack for me.
1) busted draws in which case there is no reason to bluff
2) AJ, Ah4h, and the occasional slow played 45/JT/set, and KQ and bluffing into this range is not going to get enough folds vs average 50NLH reg - they might sometimes fold say JT or 54 everything else is calling and i think the 45/JT hands are a small part of river range as they are more likely to have raise flop or turn.
3) AhXh - i think the bluff works vs this part of his range but i don't think there are always in PF calling range and turn calling range so we need to discount them a bit and they are sometimes checking back on river with weak AhXh
i still don't think i like river XR bluff but this might be closer than i first thought - got to get equilab on my labtop :)
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