how many hands should I put in to determine if im winning long run

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how many hands should I put in to determine if im winning long run

hi
im playin at 10 nl. played over 10k hands with approx 17bb/100 . is that enough volume?

thoughts?

3 Comments

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JackPozzi 6 years, 3 months ago

No, 10k it's not enough, it has a lot of variance although you're running pretty good and the chances that you are a winner are somewhat significant, but you can be a slightly winning player.

The standard sample size when you start making guesses about your winrate is about 100k. If your winrate is big (~8-10bb/100) you can take 50k I guess.

Overall, I think you should work on your game, play at least 50k hands and move up if you're winning and your bankroll supports it. If you don't have enough roll, keep playing and improving. The bankroll requirements are probably the best general approach to your question.

You can play with sample sizes, winrates and variance here:
http://www.pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

SnowAndFire 6 years, 3 months ago

At 17bb/100, 10k hands is certainly enough to say you are a winning player. As stated above you can play with the pokerdope variance calc. Look in your HM2/PT4 database for Std Dev per 100 hands and use that for the calculation. At 17bb/100 I would assume it is low (70-75). As you can see, with 17bb/100 and 70 Std Dev we have a nearly 100% confidence interval that we are winning.

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