How does opening to a smaller size make it less profitable for opponents to 3b us if they use a 3x sizing no matter what size we open with?
Posted by Spades
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Spades
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How does opening to a smaller size make it less profitable for opponents to 3b us if they use a 3x sizing no matter what size we open with?
Doesn't it just even itself out? I keep hearing in videos to open for a smaller sizing to make our opponents 3b less profitable but isn't it the same thing??
Say we open CO to 2.5x and BTN 3b's us to 7.5x.
How is that any different than us opening CO to 3x and BTN 3b'ing us to 9x? Aren't the odds the same??
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First of all, the odds are not the same, you didn't take the blinds in to account. Secondly, the times we fold to the 3bet, we lose more when we use a larger sizing. Also, you will face more 3bets than cold calls when you open bigger -> less equity realization for your range.
How did I forget about the blinds! Haha
Ok so playing 1/2, We open CO to 5, BTN makes it 15. So his breakeven percentage is bet / bet + pot so 15 / 15 + 3 = 88%.
Now say we're playing 1/2 and we open CO to 6 and BTN makes it 18. Now his BE% is 18 / 18 + 3 = 85%.
If I remember correctly the BE% = how much fold equity one needs to breakeven correct?
So when we open larger and V 3b's 3x he only needs 85% FE compared to when we open 2.5x in which case he needs 88%?
Interesting question.
Agree to Luigi90250 I think one of the reasons why we are getting 3bet more often is that the balance of cold-calls to 3bets is shifted towards cold-calling when using a smaller size and towards 3betting when using the bigger size. This is because the odds for coldcalling are better with a smaller betsize.
E.g. 2.2x size -> (2.2bb+1.5bb)/2.2bb = 1.68 to 1 => 37% equity needed
3x size -> (3.0bb+1.5bb)/3bb = 1.5 to 1 => 40% equity needed
(given all other players fold)
I think another point that could have an impact is that play is deeper (SPR is higher) on the flop when you are opening smaller (and hence the absolute 3bet size will be smaller too as you said). This should favour a higher 3-bet size to avoid getting called too profitably by the opener. E.g. maybe vs a 3BB open you should 3bet to 3.5x the open in the SB = 10.5BB but vs a 2.2x opening size you could rather make it 4x = 8.8BB. I'm not sure if this makes sense though maybe someone can verify/correct this idea.
You still have a point though that given you would only 3bet or fold that the possible 3bettor facing a small open raise size can assume a wider range and therefore 3bet a wider range himself compared to the bigger size. I'd definitely be interested in a response of a pro on this one.
Good post Eldora, nice insights.
I was thinking about similar things when I looked on some Pio Solver Preflop Charts for BB, it clearly wants to 3-bet a higher percentage when the open raise is bigger.
For example vs a 40% range he 3-bets 13.3% of the time vs 3bb (10.5bb size) open but vs a 2bb open he only 3-bets 9.2% of the time to 8bb.
I thought about the odds reason like you did, but also thought that maybe BB is incentivized to call stronger hands preflop to be able to defend his very wide range postflop, given that vs 2bb he's defending like ~77% of the time overall, instead of ~34% of the time vs 3bb. So given that IP is going to play agressively with a huge range advantage BB has more EV by calling with hands like AQo or KQs/AJs.
That is just the BB vs IP OR scenario though.
The claim that you need to open for a smaller sizing to make opponents' 3bets less profitable is not true.
Every sizing you make in poker should be to extract the most possible value from your opponent's range. You do that by putting most of your opponent's range in a difficult (0EV) spot.
The theoretical explanation for this is this:
If the bulk of your opponent's hands has a -EV call:
Likewise, if the bulk of your opponent's hands has a +EV call:
So strategy tends towards the sizing that puts most of your opponent's range in a tough spot.
Opening to a smaller sizing preflop is typically better, not because it makes three-bets less profitable, but because it puts most of your opponents' ranges (particularly the big blinds') in a tough spot. That's how you get at the same time the best value for your bluffs and the best value for your strong hands.
whispers
When we open larger there's more money out there for them to win which, in combination with getting a worse price to cold call, incentivizes more 3bs
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