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How far do we go with this?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

How far do we go with this?

SB: $200
BB: $237.34
HJ: $212.56
CO: $582.56
BN: $268.98 (Hero)
Preflop ($3.00) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt 9 J
HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $4, SB folds, BB calls $2
Flop ($9.00) 9 6 2 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB raises to $21.04, Hero calls $15.04
Turn ($51.08) 9 6 2 T (2 Players)
BB bets $41.73
Not tons for reads on villain but he seems competent and moderately aggressive preflop. 23/21 so with a 75% fold to btn steal so far. Postflop I think this is his first c/r. I feel that we should float flop because TP plays ok vs a c/r range generally. It can get tricky though and I m not sure how far I should take it on later streets.

2 Comments

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james 12 years, 2 months ago
I'd just fold the turn. You pick up no equity, some of his bluffing range just got there, your hand just dropped in absolute hand strength, you're still losing to his value hands and have almost no outs vs him, and you don't have a solid read on his postflop tendencies.
2blave 12 years, 2 months ago
I also think it's a turn fold, mostly because of how many of his diamond draws have a ten in them, as well as both T8s and 87s improving against you. It depends what kind of check/raise range you put villain on, since some players are going to bluff this board without even a piece, but if villain is only check/raising hands that connect with the board in some way this is one of the worst non diamond turns for you. You can probably call any other turn card, depending on how you guess his range.

I started with this range and stoved several different turns, Tx really is one of the worst for you, dropping your equity to about 35% (32% if we add T8s). There's also no guarantee this player is playing all suited kings here, and there's also the chance of an A9 merge. Without KdXd your equity drops to 39% on flop and 26% on the turn.
Board: 9d 6d 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.312% 42.31% 00.00% 10891 0.00 { Jd9c }
Hand 1: 57.688% 57.69% 00.00% 14849 0.00 { 99, 66, 22, AdTd, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdTd, Kd8d, Kd7d, Kd5d, Kd4d, Kd3d, Kd2d, QdTd, 87s }

Board: 9d 6d 2s Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.528% 34.53% 00.00% 395 0.00 { Jd9c }
Hand 1: 65.472% 65.47% 00.00% 749 0.00 { 99, 66, 22, AdTd, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdTd, Kd8d, Kd7d, Kd5d, Kd4d, Kd3d, Kd2d, QdTd, 87s }

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