How calculate how often a scary/blank card comes on turn or river?
Posted by kknives
Posted by
kknives
posted in
Mid Stakes
How calculate how often a scary/blank card comes on turn or river?
Hi everybody,
i have one math question for you. How can i calculate how often a board will be dry/not dry run out?
Let's say, for example, that i raise on btn with KJ, BB calls and flop is K72 rainbow. It's a hand that maybe we can bet 3 streets for value, however sometimes the turn or river don't allow me to do it (in this situation, it should be because an A comes or a Q+T runner runner). The question is the method/formula (or a tool, a programm, whatever) to estimate this “sometimes”.
Maybe in this example it isn't much relevant because your hand it's too strong in any case (or for example when you have 99 on T95 two tone, you have to bet it even if “a lot of time” the turn/river ruins your absolute hand strength), but i think it could be useful when you have to decide which street to bet when you have a 2streets value hand (and so you can decide to bet on flop and turn to get more protection vs some oppo's hands or to check on flop and bet later). The problem is that i don't know how to calculate it :D Maybe it's a stupid question or it's a useless thing, btw i'll appreciate any kind of help, thanks a lot :)
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Chances of the turn or river being an ace is 4/47 + 4/46. Runner runner is 4/47 * 4/46 so pretty irrelevant.
4/47 + 4/46= 17%..so why As8s has only 11.82% equity vs Ks5s on Kh 7d 2c?
First, it´s not 4/47, but 3/47.
Second, it´s not 3/47 + 3/46, but 3/47 + (44/47*3/46), but that´s nitpicking.
It only has 12% equity because in 5/47 (K, 5 hitting) A8 is "drawing dead", and in the 3/47 there´s still 5/46 chances that A is not good:
EQ(A8) = ("A hits turn" * "no K/5 hits on river") + ("no A,K,5 hits turn" * "A hits on river")
EQ (A8) = (3/47 * 41/46) + (39/47 * 3/46) = ~11.1%
The rest (0.7%) are runner-runner-8s: 4/47 * 4/46 = ~0.7%
Count the dry outs, multiply per 2% for one street games.
i'm sorry that my question wasn't clear. I was only asking how to estimate how often the oppo's range could beat our hand after turn and river. I thought a bit and i realize that the answer is easy, just look on how much equity we have vs each part of oppo's range, specially it's folding range.
Now it could be interesting to understand which are the limits of equity where it's +ev to bet to deny oppo's equity instead of check behind.
For example, raised pot btn vs bb, K72 rainbow, how do you play a hand like K5?
A hand like QJs has 7% equity vs us and probably it's folding vs a bet on flop, so maybe vs this part of oppo's range it's better to check behind on flop; on the other hand, A8 for example has about 16% equity and it seems to start to be quite a lot for me (?maybe it's not?), so vs this part of range maybe it's better to play bet flop and turn to take a fold on turn.
I'm a bit confused on how to understand which way to play it's the +ev :/
If that would be easy - the game would be dead. :)
Here´s a thread with a somewhat similar question, maybe it helps:
http://www.runitonce.com/nlhe/calculate-ev-difference-between-calling/
Why don't you just do it how you're supposed to do it?
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